Ian Hartitz examines the value of NFL Draft capital on how an NFL player performs in fantasy football in their early careers.

NFL Draft sleepers are fun to believe in. America loves an underdog story. You get it, I get it.

Here's the problem: The good guys usually don't win at the end of this movie.

Sure, there are exceptions here and there, but history tells us that the earlier a player is drafted, the better for their future fantasy football success at all positions. Accordingly, I have key takeaways surrounding just how much draft capital matters by position.

As always: It's a great day to be great.

1. High-producing rookies are rare, but RB produces the most

It's fun to bark about rookies non-stop from February to April. Draft szn, baby!

That said, there's usually only a handful of first-year players who put forward truly meaningful production in fantasy land during any given year. Among all rookies from 2015-24 …

Of course, the NFL has usually managed to do a good job identifying these ballers in the pre-draft process, typically leading to them being early-round draft picks. This brings us to our next lesson.

2. The overwhelming majority of top-performing rookies are drafted on Day 1 or 2

This is especially true at QB and TE, but even RB (74%) and WR (83%) had the vast majority of their top-producing rookies hear their name called within the first three rounds of the NFL Draft.

 

Dak Prescott is the only Day 3 QB to post big-time numbers in year one, and that reality was only possible because of a preseason back injury to Tony Romo. No TE has accomplished the feat.

Meanwhile, Tyreek Hill and Puka Nacua are the only top-performing WRs drafted in Round 4 or later, and the former prospect would have gone much earlier if not for off-the-field concerns. As sexy as it is to say someone will be “this year's Puka!”— it's probably more accurate to go with “this DECADE's Puka,” especially considering Tyreek would have presumably been drafted much earlier if it wasn't for off-the-field issues. Hell, even Puka might have profiled as more of a Day 2 guy if not for a laundry list of injury issues during his time in college.

Once again, RB is the outlier here. It's the only position with more top-performing rookies coming on Day 2 than Day 1, and their total numbers of Round 4-plus or UDFA qualifiers is more than double the rest of the positions combined. Specifically, seven rookie RBs drafted in Rounds 4-7 or UDFA posted top-24 fantasy numbers in the last 10 years:

I wouldn't take this as a complete red flag for Irving. Lindsay and Howard managed to go for 1,000-plus yards again during their respective encores, injuries limited guys like Mitchell and Robinson in future seasons, and Williams was suspended and didn't play in the NFL again after 2015.

Still: The evidence is pretty, pretty, pretty overwhelming that Day 3 draft picks don't make a habit of putting up big-time fantasy numbers as rookies … or even after.

3. The heavy majority of top-performing fantasy performers were drafted in Rounds 1-3

Things aren't quite as extreme as they are with rookies, but the takeaway that earlier draft capital is way better than later holds true even when simply looking at each year's top performers.

Original NFL Draft round from top fantasy performers during the last 10 years

Clearly RB and TE have a bit less of a reliance on Round 1 talents, but there's clearly a major dropoff after the top 100 or so picks. Overall, 72% or more of top-performing players regardless of position were originally taken inside the first three rounds of the NFL Draft.

Obviously plenty of late-round rookies managed to buck this trend, and more still supplied useful fantasy performances even if they weren't able to post top-12 or top-24 numbers over the course of an entire season. That said: You'd better have a good reason for overly betting on pretty much any player drafted outside of the top-100 picks.

Conclusion

Sorry to be lame and throw some cold water on the late-round sleeper fire, but facts are facts, and accordingly we know…

  • It's rare to see rookies as a whole put up big-time numbers in fantasy football land
  • The first-year players who do thrive are typically drafted inside the first three rounds
  • RB is the position most likely to buck these trends
  • The heavy majority of all top fantasy performers were originally taken inside the top 100 picks

Final note: Make sure you watch Draft Day at least a few times before, you know, the actual draft day. Otherwise, thanks for reading and have a great rest of your day!