NFL Rookie Super Model Tiers: RBs

With the NFL Draft quickly approaching, we are launching our Fantasy Life Rookie Super Model for RBs.

In case you missed it: we launched our TE model last week!

Our goal is to identify the top rookie prospects based on data points that tie to fantasy production in the NFL. We tested several advanced data metrics to see how they correlated with fantasy points and integrated the top options into our model.

While this limits our college data set to prospects since 2017, our model is also rooted in the well-established metrics identified by the dynasty community that date further back.

Of course, this combination doesn’t make our model perfect (no model is perfect), but we think it does make it pretty super, and we can’t wait to watch it grow as we gather more data.

Data and metrics utilized:

  • Projected draft capital (Grinding the Mocks and NFL Mock Draft Database)
  • Career adjusted total yards per team attempt (rushing + receiving yards x 2 / team attempts)
  • Best-season adjusted total yards per team attempt
  • Career explosive rush rate (10-plus yard carries)
  • Career missed tackles forced rate (MTF)
  • Career average yards after contact (YCO)
  • Rookie-season age
  • Weight

Tier 1

Bijan Robinson | Texas | 5’11 and 215 lbs.

No other RB since 2017 has ranked higher in the RB Super Model, as Bijan Robinson garnered a 100th-percentile score. Even when removing projected draft capital from the model, Robinson still has the No. 1 score on record. Every RB that has eclipsed the 90th percentile has delivered at least one top-12 fantasy finish.

While RBs might not matter in 2023, most teams have a very high grade on Robinson, and the only debate about his first-round status is how high he might climb. Daniel Jeremiah of NFL.com has Robinson graded as his No. 3 overall prospect, and Dane Brugler of The Athletic has him at No. 6 overall.

The former five-star recruit’s 2.51 adjusted total yards per team attempt (ATYTA) for his career ranks in the 80th percentile, and his 2.82 best-season ATYTA ranks in the 70th percentile. Robinson also averaged 136 total yards per game over his three seasons at the University of Texas, and since 2017, the list of RBs to average 135 total yards per game over at least 20 games reads like a Who’s Who list in fantasy football.

  • Jonathan Taylor: 160
  • Aaron Jones: 151
  • Kareem Hunt: 142
  • Dalvin Cook: 142
  • Leonard Fournette: 135
  • Christian McCaffrey: 135
Bijan Robinson

Texas Longhorns running back Bijan Robinson (5) is tackled by Iowa State Cyclones defensive back Anthony Johnson Jr. (26) as the Longhorns take on the Cyclones in Ames, Saturday, Nov. 6, 2021. V6v3915 Jpg Photo Credit: Zach Boyden-Holmes/The Register / USA TODAY NETWORK

At Texas, Robinson was a nightmare to bring down thanks to a unique blend of agility and power. Per Pro Football Focus (PFF), he delivered a 0.29 forced missed tackle per attempt rate, the best career mark on record. Robinson's 4.40 career average yards after contact is the third-highest in the class and ranks in the 70th percentile overall. Lance Zierlein of NFL.com compares Robinson stylistically to Josh Jacobs.

Although much of his damage came via the run game, Robinson was also a plus in the passing attack. His career 49% route participation and his career 0.83 receiving yards per team pass attempt (RYPTPA) both ranked third-best in this class.

And while Robinson was an average target earner with a 14% targets per route run (TPRR) rate, he made the most of his opportunities, as an eye-popping 30% of his targets went for 15-plus yards, the second-best mark in our database (minimum 250 career routes).

Robinson is the consensus No. 1 dynasty selection for good reason: he truly is a generational talent. He checks all the boxes as a runner, receiver, and playmaker, which gives him 400-touch upside as early as Year 1. Best ball drafters aren’t shy about their feelings towards the young stud, as Robinson is already being drafted as the RB5 in Round 2 as of April.

You can start drafting him TODAY and get a 100% deposit match of up to $100 by signing up for Underdog Fantasy below.

Tier 2

Jahmyr Gibbs | Alabama | 5’9 and 199 lbs.

The RB Super Model dates back to the 2017 class, and since then, 64% of prospects who've ranked in the 80th percentile or higher have generated at least one top-12 fantasy season in their first three years in the NFL.

Jahmyr Gibbs’ projected draft capital has fallen a bit since the end of the 2022 season, but he still projects as the No. 2 RB off the board in the early second round of the 2023 NFL Draft.

Jahmyr Gibbs Projected Draft Stock

The former four-star recruit began his career at Georgia Tech before transferring to Alabama for his final season as a junior. While he never established himself as an every-down back, Gibbs was a very good all-around option with a 2.41 career ATYTA, which ranks in the 76th percentile.

He created a 10-plus yard rush on 15% of his carries, which is right around the average, but his 0.22 missed tackles forced rate falls in the 69th percentile. Gibbs is a real problem at the second and third levels of the defense, where he creates extra yards with his elusiveness.

While his career 44% route participation was slightly lower than expected, Gibbs was a target magnet. His 25% career TPRR ranks No. 1 in the class and is the fifth-highest mark recorded for backs with at least 250 routes.

  • Alvin Kamara: 33% career TPRR
  • Taquan Mizzell: 30%
  • Christian McCaffrey: 27%
  • Jaylen Samuels: 27%
  • Gibbs: 25%

Gibbs’s 2.47 career yards per route run (YPRR) mark also ranks highly behind only McCaffrey (2.81) and Kamara (2.48). Like McCaffrey, Gibbs also operated at a positive average depth of target (aDOT) of 0.9 yards, and 20% of his targets went for 15-plus yards, well above the 15% average for qualifying RBs.

Lance Zierlein comps Gibbs to Kamara, a name that we've already mentioned a couple of times when reviewing Gibbs's data profile. Dane Brugler also echoed the Kamara comp in his draft guide, “The Beast”, as did Daniel Jeremiah. Gibbs might not be a between-the-tackles grinder, but he carries plenty of upside thanks to his viability in the passing game.

The RB Super Model compares Gibbs closest to McCaffrey on the high end and Kenneth Gainwell on the lower end of the spectrum when excluding draft capital. When including Gibbs’s current second-round projection, Gainwell falls out of the comp group.

Gibbs has high-end RB1 upside and should be the No. 2 RB off the board in rookie drafts. In best ball, he has top-12 upside in PPR and half-PPR formats even as a rookie, but Gibbs's landing spot will matter, as a team without an established passing-down back would be preferable.

Tier 3

Zach Charbonnet | UCLA | 6’0 and 214 lbs.

The top-12 hit rate drops from 64% to 33% once you fall below the 80th percentile in the Super Model, which is where Zach Charbonnet ranks. However, 66% of RBs below the 80th percentile still managed to post a top-24 fantasy season in their first three years in the league.

Charbonnet started his career as a four-star recruit at Michigan, where he played for two seasons before transitioning to UCLA. His career ATYTA of 1.72 (52nd percentile) lags behind the RBs in the top two tiers.

However, as a senior, Charbonnet came through with 168 total yards per game, which was best among the 2023 rookie RBs. His 2.90 best-season ATYTA also ranks in the 76th percentile and is the second-best among RBs in this draft class. On top of that, the former Bruin delivered a 0.23 missed tackles forced rate (73rd percentile) and busted a 10-plus yard run on 17% of his totes (69th percentile).

Even though Charbonnet's career average of 3.54 yards after contact wasn’t great (45th percentile), he has the size that NFL teams covet and could deliver value inside the five-yard line, having accounted for 70% of the Bruins’ designed TD runs as a senior per PFF.

Zach Charbonnet

Oct 23, 2021; Pasadena, California, USA; UCLA Bruins running back Zach Charbonnet (24) is defended by cornerback Dontae Manning (8) in the second half at Rose Bowl. Oregon defeated UCLA 34-31. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

Despite a potentially fantasy-friendly goal-line role in the NFL, we shouldn’t expect him to suddenly transform into the centerpiece of a passing attack. Charbonnet’s 14% career TPRR and 0.45 receiving yards per team pass attempt were average compared to classes since 2017, and he also wasn’t very explosive in the passing game, with only 10% of his targets having gone for 15-plus yards.

However, Charbonnet is capable enough as a receiver to handle checkdown targets at the next level, and scouts like his ability as a blocker, which keeps a path to an every-down role open.

Charbonnet is currently projected to be selected in the second round in most NFL mock drafts. PFF and Dane Brugler both have him ranked as the No. 3. Charbonnet also comps to Dillon in the RB Super Model, and Royce Freeman and Cam Akers are two other close comps.

Although Charbonnet doesn’t have the same upside as the RBs in Tier 1 and Tier 2, he could still carve out a top-24 fantasy season in his first three years. Finding a landing spot where goal-line duties are up for grabs as a rookie would definitely help Charbonnet's fantasy outlook as a rookie.

Devon Achane | Texas A&M | 5’8 and 188 lbs.

Devon Achane averaged 97 total yards per game in his three-year career at College Station and finished strong with total 130 yards per game as a junior. While he was a solid overall weapon, Achane's career 1.72 ATYTA fell below the top two tiers and ranks in just the 56th percentile.

The former four-star recruit has a knack for creating big plays. He delivered a 75th-percentile explosive rush rate with 20% of his carries having gone for 10-plus yards. However, he never handled more than 46% of Texas A&M’s designed rushing attempts in a season, creating doubts about his ability to command a full-time role in the NFL.

Only Phillip Lindsay has delivered a top-24 fantasy finish at less than 190 lbs. since 2017, and Achane has a similar fearless approach running inside.

Achane’s coaching staff trusted him on passing downs, as he saw a 78% route participation as a junior in 2022. Unfortunately, his career 16% TPRR and 21% best-season TPRR are only slightly above average. He doesn’t have a profile akin to Kamara or McCaffrey coming out of school, which limits his paths to fantasy production.

His expected draft capital has also fallen a bit in the pre-draft process. As a result, Achane may slip below the current expectation of being selected early in Round 3, which would impact his grade in the RB Super Model.

However, Dane Brugler still has a second to third-round grade on Achane as his No. 4 RB in this class due to Achane's rare acceleration, which aligns with the data.

Ultimately, Achane is a big-play threat and would be best suited in an offense with a creative head coach willing to maximize his snaps. Michael Carter, Devin Singletary, and Jaret Patterson are his closest comps in the model.

Although there are certainly red flags, the RB Super Model suggests that Achane and Charbonnet shouldn’t be too far apart in ADP. Achane is worth a shot late in best ball drafts, as his current ADP as the RB51 on Underdog makes him a cheap flier with a lot of upside.

Tier 4

DeWayne McBride | UAB | 5’10 and 209 lbs.

There's a lot to like about DeWayne McBride, but two factors are depressing his score in the RB Super Model.

First, had McBride played against Power Five competition, his metrics would've placed him in Tier 3 above. And second, lack of expected draft capital heading into the NFL Draft detracts from his profile.

That said, no other RB being projected outside of the top 70 overall picks in the 2023 NFL Draft ranks higher than McBride in the model, and no other RB in this class had more than McBride's career 117 rushing yards per game. In addition, McBride ranked above the 70th percentile in multiple career categories.

 

10-plus yard rush %

Missed tackles forced per attempt

Average yards after contact 

Data

20%

0.26

4.93

Percentile

73rd

88th

86th

Unfortunately, the former three-star recruit wasn’t on the field often in passing situations with only a 22% route participation for his career. His 6% TPRR was also one of the worst in the class, and McBride finished with literally zero percent of his targets going for 15-plus yards.

Still, the Super Model likes McBride much more than the scouting community. Dane Brugler has McBride ranked as his RB13 partially due to concerns as a pass catcher and blocker, though Brugler does like McBride's vision and lateral agility. Lance Zierlein is slightly higher on McBride as his RB9 in this class.

McBride isn’t an easy player to comp in the model due to his unique attributes, but A.J. Dillon and Trey Sermon were both similar prospects per the model. Given McBride’s lack of Day 1 or Day 2 expected draft capital, he needs to land on a depth chart without much competition in the RB room to have a chance to make noise as a rookie.

Sean Tucker | Syracuse | 5’9 and 207 lbs.

Sean Tucker averaged 116 total yards per game over his career, which was the fourth-best mark for a Power Five RB in the 2023 class. No other RB in the class accounted for a higher market share of his team’s rushing attempts (62%) than the former three-star recruit did in his 33 games at Syracuse.

Adjusted total yards per team attempt (ATYTA) carries the second-strongest signal after draft capital, and Tucker excelled in that area. His 2.43 career ATYTA (77th percentile) and his 2.88 best-season ATYTA (75th percentile) both rank third-highest in this class.

One concern about Tucker is that most of his ATYTA numbers were volume-based, so while we love that he earned such a significant role, he was pretty average with the ball in his hands.

 

10-plus yard rush %

Missed tackles forced per attempt

Average yards after contact 

Data

16%

0.20

3.51

Percentile

54th

56th

44th

A positive was that the coaching staff trusted Tucker in the passing game. He registered the class's second-best career route participation (55%), and his 12% career target share is double the 6% average we have seen from RB prospects since 2017.

However, like Tucker's low efficiency marks in the run game, he couldn’t maximize his opportunities. Only 12% of his targets turned into 15-plus yard games, which was below the 15% average from RBs since 2017.

Tucker’s demonstrated every-down ability is a big positive, but the scouting community doesn’t regard him as highly due to his lack of dynamic traits.

If NFL are likewise concerned about lack of athleticism, that could push Tucker's expected draft capital below the fourth round where mocks currently have him projected to go. James Robinson is one of the closest comps in the model, and he went undrafted in 2020.

Tyjae Spears | Tulane | 5’10 and 201 lbs.

Tyjae Spears averaged 105 total yards per game in his 33 games at Tulane, and like the aforementioned McBride, Spears was efficient against non-Power Five competition. His average 0.24 forced missed tackles and 4.54 average yards after contact both rank above the 80th percentile.

And though Spears's 1.91 career ATYTA and 2.41 best-season ATYTA numbers were slightly above average, he showed promise in the passing game. He was only an average target earner with a 16% career TPRR, but Spears was efficient with a 1.42 career YPRR and a 21% explosive target rate.

The former three-star recruit has third-round buzz in mock drafts, and the NFL talent evaluators favor him over Tucker. Spears is No. 5 in Brugler’s RB ranks and lands at No. 8 for NFL.com as well as for PFF.

Zach Evans | Ole Miss | 5’10 and 201 lbs.

Zach Evans was a five-star recruit and the No. 2 RB in the 2020 recruiting class behind Bijan Robinson. Evans played his first two seasons at TCU, where he broke out with a 2.47 ATYTA as a sophomore in six games. However, he opted to transfer to Ole Miss for his junior season, where he regressed to 1.33 ATYTA in 2022.

On the surface, Evans’s 86 total yards per game for his career doesn’t look very appealing, but he flashed enough of his five-star magic to earn a spot in Tier 4. His 81st-percentile 21% explosive rush rate is best in the 2023 RB class, and Evans's average yards after contact ranks second behind only Robinson when only looking at Power Five programs.

In the passing attack, Evans was an above-average target earner with an 18% TPRR and a 1.35 YPRR on his career. He wasn’t just a swing-pass option either, as his 2.0 aDOT ranked third among this year's class of RBs.

Evans is expected to go in the first three rounds of the NFL Draft and is the No. 3 RB for Lance Zierlein, who compared him stylistically to Melvin Gordon. The closest comps for Evans based on the RB Super Model are Travis Etienne and Elijah Mitchell.

Tier 5

Deuce Vaughn | Kansas State | 5’5 and 179 lbs.

Deuce Vaughn’s height and weight rank near the 0th percentile, which could be a major issue at the next level. However, Vaughn’s 2.80 career ATYTA ranks in the 90th percentile, and his 3.30 best-season ATYTA ranks in the 88th percentile. Both are top in this class.

The former three-star recruit was also a major factor in the passing game. Vaughn led all 2023 RBs in career route participation (66%), target share (18%), receiving yards per team pass attempt (1.34), and aDOT (4.0).

Due to Vaugh’s lack of size and prolific adjusted yardage, there isn’t a comp for him in the model. However, when watching him, you can’t help but think of another former Wildcat in Darren Sproles, who measured 5’6 and 187 lbs. at the 2005 NFL Combine. Sproles is the only Kansas State player with more all-time rushing yards than Vaughn.

To unlock fantasy potential at the next level, Vaughn must land in a pass-heavy offense willing to get creative with his utilization.

Tank Bigsby | Auburn | 6’0 and 210 lbs.

Tank Bigsby averaged 96 total yards per game during his time at Auburn and checks the size and logo boxes that NFL teams could like. Mock drafts are currently projecting third-round capital for the 22 year-old.

However, the former four-star recruit’s career and best-season ATYTA marks (1.73 and 1.90, respectively) were both average, leaving his 68th-percentile missed tackles forced rate (22%) as the only standout quality on his resume. Bigsby was also just average as a target earner with a career 16% TPRR, and both his 0.87 YPRR and 7% explosive target rate were subpar.

Kendre Miller | TCU | 5’11 and 215 lbs.

Kendre Miller will only be 21 years old when the 2023 NFL season starts and is the second-youngest RB prospect in this rookie class. His career and best-season ATYTA numbers are both below the 45th percentile, but it's worth noting that TCU had significant backfield competition early in his college career.

The former three-star recruit did flash in efficiency metrics with a 75th-percentile missed tackles forced rate (0.24) and a 60th-percentile explosive rush rate (17%), but Miller wasn’t very active in the passing attack and scored below-average marks across the board.

Israel Abanikanda | Pitt | 5’10 and 216 lbs.

Israel Abanikanda is the youngest RB in this class and is picking up some steam thanks to his strong pro day performance. His 114.2 speed score is tied for No. 1 in the class, indicating that Abanikanda could have explosive playmaking ability.

Unfortunately, we didn’t see it show up in his underlying data, as Abanikanda was average in explosive rush rate (16%) and missed tackles forced (0.19) during his career at Pitt. His 2.95 average yards after contact (27th percentile) also ranks dead last in this RB class.

Israel Abanikanda

Oct 8, 2022; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Panthers running back Israel Abanikanda (2) against the Virginia Tech Hokies during the first quarter at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

He averaged just 81 total yards per game for his career but finished strong with 143 total yards per game in his final season last year. As a result, Abanikanda's 2.37 best-season ATYTA ranks in the 60th percentile, well above his career 40th percentile mark of 1.37 ATYTA.

Abanikanda was also slightly below average as a target earner with a 14% career TPRR and 0.99 career YPRR. However, he delivered an explosive reception on 20% of his targets, above the 15% average for RBs since 2017.

Lance Zierlein has Abanikanda as his No. 4 RB prospect, and Dane Brugler has Abanikanda inside his top 10 RBs. There is a chance that the RB Super Model is too low on the former three-star recruit, but we create tiers for a reason, which provides flexibility for Abanikanda to rank as high as the No. 9 RB at the top of Tier 5 depending on what happens during the NFL Draft.

Chase Brown | Illinois | 5’9 and 209 lbs.

Chase Brown was a fifth-year senior last year at Illinois, where he delivered 156 total yards per game, the second-highest mark in the class. During that campaign, Brown registered a 2.51 best-season ATYTA, his most notable data point in the model.

The three-star recruit was below average in the missed tackles forced (20%) and yards after contact (3.26) departments, though, and as a receiver, Brown's 13% career TPRR and 0.95 career YPRR were both below-average.

Roschon Johnson | Texas | 6’0 and 219 lbs.

Roschon Johnson was a four-star recruit in 2019 that ended up stuck behind all-world prospect Bijan Robinson. Because of that, Johnson's 55 career total yards per game and 1.00 career ATYTA are both extremely low. 

Johnson was also just average as a target earner with a 16% career TPRR, and his 0.91 career YPRR was below-average.

However, Johnson has the second-highest missed tackles forced rate (28%) among the 2023 rookie RBs behind only his teammate, Robinson, and Johnson's career average yards after contact (4.0) is the fifth-highest for a Power Five RB in this class.

Get the FULL RB model 
 

While a lot of these 2023 rookie RBs may not produce in Year 1, BetMGM sure will. With BetMGM's First Bet Offer, you can get up to $1,000 paid back in bonus bets if your first bet does not win. Sign up below and start betting today!

RB Super Model