There's nothing quite like good ole hindsight to really make you feel dumb—especially in fantasy football land where the margins between making a lot, or a little, money are often very slim.

Nobody knows this phenomenon better than dynasty managers, who are forced to select incoming rookies before having watched them play a single snap of professional football.

Just look at the landscape back in 2021. The top four incoming rookies in dynasty ADP were Najee Harris, Kyle Pitts, Javonte Williams … and THEN Ja'Marr Chase, because could we really be sure that one of the most productive collegiate receivers in recent memory could still catch the football after suffering a few drops in the preseason?

We never know as much as we think we do about life in general and, yes, fantasy football, but sometimes the best way to get better is to revisit some of those scars in an attempt to learn just exactly where we went wrong. Presenting: Regrading 2024 rookie drafts one season later.

As always: It's a great day to be great.

2024 Rookie Quarterback ADP

  1. Bears QB Caleb Williams
  2. Commanders QB Jayden Daniels
  3. Patriots QB Drake Maye
  4. Vikings QB J.J. McCarthy
  5. Broncos QB Bo Nix
  6. Falcons QB Michael Penix

It's certainly too early to give up on Williams—especially with Ben Johnson in town and the front office doing everything in their power to fix the offensive line this offseason—but it's also hard to deny that Daniels would be the consensus QB1 if we had a re-rack here. After all, the Commanders' savior just became the fourth rookie QB in NFL history to score at least 20 fantasy points per game and is sitting pretty as the consensus QB3 in the Fantasy Life rankings ahead of 2025.

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Jan 12, 2025; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) throws downfield during the first quarter against the Buffalo Bills in an AFC wild card game at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

Things get a bit more murky after that. I wouldn't fault anyone for continuing to ride with Maye as QB3, although Nix is fresh off a pretty, pretty, pretty good year one himself. Although Maye's dual-threat skill-set already puts him in good company, Nix's 18.6 fantasy points per game as a rookie is good for the fifth-highest mark in the Super Bowl era. I still lean Maye ever so slightly, but don't blame anyone for giving Nix the edge thanks to Sean Payton and the superior offensive environment in Denver.

This leaves us with McCarthy and Penix. The former QB is blessed to exist in Kevin O'Connell's QB-friendly, Justin Jefferson-backed ecosystem, while the latter is suddenly the full-time starter in Atlanta after Kirk Cousins' expected multi-year run as QB1 ended after just 15 weeks. While it's tough (for most of us) to already be convinced McCarthy is the next big thing at the position, I do side with the 22-year-old talent in the long term over Penix, whose year-one flashes also came with the league's sixth-worst completion percentage over expected (-4.4%). 

2024 Rookie Running Back ADP

  1. Jonathon Brooks
  2. Trey Benson
  3. MarShawn Lloyd
  4. Blake Corum
  5. Jaylen Wright
  6. Bucky Irving
  7. Ray Davis
  8. Kimani Vidal
  9. Will Shipley
  10. Braelon Allen

This class as a whole turned out to be a rather colossal bust. Brooks and Lloyd saw their rookie campaigns wiped out by injury, while the likes of Benson, Corum, Wright, and Davis were reduced to clear-cut backup roles. Hopeful late-round gems like Vidal, Shipley, and Allen also failed to get much of anything going: 2024 was NOT a good year to draft a rookie RB.

Unless, of course, you were lucky enough to snag Mr. Bucky Irving. The Buccaneers' rookie talent was nothing short of phenomenal in 2024, ducking, dipping, diving, and dodging his way to 1,514 total yards and eight TDs for the NFC South champs.

Bucky Irving among 31 RBs with 150-plus carries in 2024:

  • Yards per carry: 5.4 (No. 4)
  • Yards over expected per carry: +0.94 (No. 5)
  • Yards after contact per carry: 4.03 (No. 1)
  • Yards per route run: 1.63 (No. 4)
  • Tackles avoided per carry: 27.5% (No. 3)
  • Explosive run rate: 9.7% (No. 6)
  • PFF rush grade: 89 (No. 7)
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Jan 12, 2025; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Bucky Irving (7) makes a touchdown catch against Washington Commanders linebacker Frankie Luvu (4) during the third quarter of an NFC wild card playoff at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

It's tough to dispute that Irving would be the RB1 in this class if we had another shot at it, while a similar rise would be warranted for Giants RB Tyrone Tracy. Now, it's far from a given that the Iowa/Purdue product will retain his starting job in a similar manner as Irving; just realize Tracy deserves a lot of credit for racking up 1,123 total yards and six TDs inside the Giants' sad excuse for an offense and accordingly would be tough to leave out of the top five (three?) if we were forced to draft again.

Don't count out the likes of Benson, Lloyd, Corum, or Davis just yet—each is essentially one injury away from being thrust into a quasi-workhorse role in most people's idea of a really good offense—but the other rising second-year talent to keep an eye out for is Wright. The Dolphins allowed Raheem Mostert to take his talents to Las Vegas in free agency this offseason, making the Tennessee product the current frontrunner for 1.B duties alongside De'Von Achane. This sort of 1.B, handcuff role (FLEX with benefits!) could help make Wright the easy RB2 on this list should we do this exercise again this time next year.

2024 Rookie Wide Receiver ADP

  1. Marvin Harrison
  2. Malik Nabers
  3. Rome Odunze
  4. Xavier Worthy
  5. Brian Thomas
  6. Keon Coleman
  7. Ladd McConkey
  8. Adonai Mitchell
  9. Ricky Pearsall
  10. Xavier Legette

Mistakes were made! Hopefully nobody is writing off Harrison (WR40 in PPR points per game) or Odunze (WR59) after their respectively underwhelming rookie campaigns, but how could any learned doctor not rank the former LSU teammates 1-2 if given the chance to do so again?

After all, Nabers and Thomas are fresh off two of the most productive rookie seasons at the position … ever! 

Most PPR points per game by a rookie WR in the Randy Moss era (1998-2024):

  1. Odell Beckham (24.6)
  2. Randy Moss (19.2)
  3. Malik Nabers (18.2)
  4. Ja'Marr Chase (17.9)
  5. Anquan Boldin (17.7)
  6. Puka Nacua (17.6)
  7. Justin Jefferson (17.14)
  8. Michael Thomas (17.1)
  9. Brian Thomas (16.7)

The reality that both rookies accomplished all this with less-than-stellar QB play (to be nice) adds even more shine to their already sterling resumes.

Of course, there was another first-year breakout who could also feasibly be shoved ahead of the relatively disappointing top-10 picks: Mr. McConkey was nothing short of phenomenal catching passes from Justin Herbert last season on his way to racking up 82 receptions for 1,149 yards and seven TDs. As good as those counting numbers are, it was the provocative per-route efficiency that should really get the people going.

Rookie WR yards and targets per route run graph

I wouldn't immediately write off the potential for Harrison and/or Odunze to still have better overall careers than McConkey; just realize at a minimum they all belong in the same tier inside the draft class's top five at this point.

From there, Worthy, Coleman, Legette, Pearsall, and probably Jalen McMillan deserve to round out the top 10 (with all due respect to Jalen Coker and all of my fellow cokeheads out there). I would also keep a candle on for Mitchell—the rookie Colts receiver turned in the position's eighth-best "Open Score" meant to help quantify separation; his mixtape of near-miss big plays from last season is NSFW.

2024 Rookie Tight End ADP

  1. Brock Bowers
  2. Ben Sinnott
  3. Ja'Tavion Sanders
  4. Theo Johnson
  5. Cade Stover

Look, expectations were plenty high for Bowers coming out of Georgia; the Raiders used the 13th overall pick on him for a reason.

That said, pulling off, you know, the single-best rookie season *ever* at the position was still pretty cool. Bowers' 112 receptions shattered Sam LaPorta's previous record (86), and his 1,194 receiving yards finally took down Mike Ditka's 63-year-old record (1,076). No TE wound up with more PPR points than Bowers; he now joins LaPorta, Travis Kelce, and Mark Andrews as the only TEs that can say that since 2015!

The fact Bowers achieved all this with near-league-worst QB play is even more impressive. The 22-year-old talent might just be scratching the surface on what he's capable of; Bowers is more than deserving of overall TE1 treatment in dynasty land and 2025 fantasy drafts.

After that: Sheesh. Sinnott looks poised to sit behind Zach Ertz for another year, Sanders continues to profile as a rotational piece at best, Johnson's ridiculous athleticism didn't translate to hardly any production despite landing a Week 1 full-time role, and Stover is stuck behind Dalton Schultz for the time being. Throw in Bengals TE Erick All suffering another unfortunate knee injury that is expected to sideline him for the duration of 2025, and the 2024 TE class looks poised to remain a one-man band for the time being.