Rookie Superflex Draft: Round 1

1.01: Bijan Robinson, RB, Atlanta Falcons (Dwain McFarland)

Robinson is the best RB prospect we have seen in the Rookie Super Model dating back to the 2017 class, grading out in the 100th percentile. We have seen 83% of backs that eclipsed the 90th percentile register at least one top-six season—making Robinson a slam dunk as the No. 1 option, even in superflex formats. 

He is an explosive every-down back with 350-touch upside in a run-first offense in Atlanta that could make him the RB1 overall as soon as 2023.

1.02: Anthony Richardson, QB, Indianapolis Colts (Chris Allen)

Richardson (literally) leaps into the fringe-QB1 discussion with top-five overall draft capital spent on him and no established vet to challenge him for starter reps. 

Apr 27, 2023; Kansas City, MO, USA; Florida quarterback Anthony Richardson with NFL commissioner Roger Goodell after being selected by the Indianapolis Colts fourth overall in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft at Union Station. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

If Shane Steichen could help put Jalen Hurts into the MVP conversation, we can forgive Richardson’s inaccuracies as a passer and swing for the fences with his ground game. With a 35.4% explosive run rate in his final season, NFL defenses will need to account for the Colts’ new signal-caller and their new WR Josh Downs, who pairs well with Michael Pittman Jr. as a high-end separator. 

Accompanied by a healthy offensive line, Richardson has spike-week potential as soon as Week 1.

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1.03: Bryce Young, QB, Carolina Panthers (Sam Wallace)

Snagging the first overall pick at the 1.03 seems like a steal, but it’s hard to argue with the first two selections. According to PFF, Bryce Young finished last season with a 93.0 passer grade, which places him at the top of the rankings among 169 FBS QBs with at least 250 dropbacks over the last two seasons. 

Year 1 could be a struggle in Carolina, but he has all the tools to succeed in the NFL.

1.04: C.J. Stroud, QB, Houston Texans (Meng Song)

C.J. Stroud has the draft capital and college production to warrant a top-four pick in superflex. 

There’s concern that the surrounding talent in Houston will be a big step down from his supporting cast at Ohio State, but with some development, Stroud can be a strong fantasy QB2 with QB1 upside at the NFL level. And while he’s not a runner, Stroud is mobile enough to buy time and scramble here and there.

1.05: Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, Detroit Lions (Rob Waziak)

With Robinson and the big three QBs off the board, we’re in the territory of taking the best player available. For me, that means taking the 12th overall pick, Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs. 

The controversial draft capital investment of Gibbs at 12 has since been mitigated following the D’Andre Swift trade. David Montgomery could potentially be out after 2024 as well, offering Gibbs a favorable two-year increased opportunity ramp-up. 

If the Lions’ stout offensive line can get Gibbs past first contact and into open space, he’ll begin his career no worse than fantasy RB2 and on a notable upward trajectory.

1.06: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seattle Seahawks (Kendall Valenzuela)

Let’s be honest, Jaxon Smith-Njigba did not end up in a great fantasy landing spot.

 He’ll now be sharing time with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett but has been described as a player who is more shifty than speedy, and that is something the Seahawks have lacked. Per PFF data, Smith-Njigba delivered a 15-plus yard reception on 34% of his plays, which ranks in the 92nd percentile since 2017. 

The Seahawks were ninth in points per game in 2022 (23.9) and have now created a three-headed monster with JSN. Overtaking Metcalf or Lockett likely isn’t in the cards unless an injury or clear dropoff happens, but I’ll take his potential upside over everything else. 

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1.07: Jordan Addison, WR, Minnesota Vikings (Matt LaMarca)

The No. 7 pick might be the worst spot in rookie drafts. 

You’re not going to get a shot at the top three quarterbacks, and there’s a clear drop-off from Robinson, Gibbs, and JSN to the rest of the skill players. I don’t consider myself a prospect expert, but Addison feels like the most likely Year 1 contributor among the remaining options.

 He should step into the WR2 role opposite Justin Jefferson, giving him plenty of opportunities for a Vikings’ offense that ranked sixth in pass rate over expectation last year.

1.08: Quentin Johnston, WR, Los Angeles Chargers (Pete Overzet)

I want to apologize to Geoff and Jonathan for picking after me because there is a big cliff after Johnston comes off the board. 

While there are some red flags on the big-bodied TCU WR's profile, he got an amazing landing spot in Los Angeles where he should be able to thrive after the catch in an offense that desperately needed additional weapons on offense. 

The nice thing about this selection is not only do you get long-term upside tethered to Justin Herbert, but you also should get immediate Year 1 production with Johnston operating as the L.A. version of Brandon Aiyuk.

1.09: Will Levis, QB, Tennessee Titans (Geoff Ulrich)

For fantasy, Levis falling to Tennessee is a positive. Ryan Tannehill is 34, missed five games last season, and has one year left on his contract. 

Levis improved in Y/A and AY/A in 2022 despite being on a weaker team and has underrated athleticism that may lead to more rushing yards in the pros – especially on Tennessee, who was sixth in rush attempts off RPOs in 2022. 

Pete stole the best WR on the board (and maybe the draft) in Quentin Johnston, and with only timeshare RBs left, getting superflex-y with Levis in this position is more than warranted. 

1.10: Zach Charbonnet, RB, Seattle Seahawks (Jonathan Fuller)

It isn’t an ideal landing spot to end up sharing a backfield with Kenneth Walker III, but second-round draft capital gives Charbonnet a nice floor for dynasty purposes. 

I’m a big believer in Charbonnet’s talent, and he profiles as a much better pass catcher than Walker, which should help him earn most of the high-value touches for one the most talented offenses in the NFC. After the draft, 

Pete Carroll openly discussed the versatility that Charbonnet brings to the offense. It seems pretty clear to me he is a big part of their plans for both the short and long term. 

1.11: Zay Flowers, WR, Baltimore Ravens (Cooterdoodle)

What we are not going to do at the end of the first round is panic and look back at all the rookies we missed out on. 

Nope. We’re looking ahead toward Baltimore. With Lamar Jackson’s extension and a new, proven OC in town, the Ravens’ offense aims to be “explosive” in 2023. 

Some people might cry, “Too many mouths to feed.” To them, I say: Stop being a party pooper. I believe Jackson’s ceiling is much higher than his 2022 production. Zay, come home to momma. 

1.12: Dalton Kincaid, TE, Buffalo Bills (Ian Hartitz)

Rookie drafts get wonky after the first nine picks. The consensus top-three QBs, top-two RBs, and top-four WRs are all usually off the board, leaving the top choices as Day 2 RBs and WRs … or the only first-round TE selected last Thursday.

Ultimately, it came down to Kincaid or Dolphins RB Devon Achane. I gave Kincaid the nod for three key reasons:

Anyone who has played fantasy football knows how much of a pain in the ass finding an upside TE1 can be.

Kincaid is at the top of Dwain McFarland’s rookie TE Super Model.

The Bills have a guy named Josh Allen at QB.

I don’t expect Kincaid to ball the hell out in 2023 because rookie TEs basically never do, but there is some level of spike week potential should he essentially just work as the offense’s big slot WR in Year 1. Throw in the possibility that the Bills get out of Dawson Knox’s contract as early as 2024, and Kincaid might just be a year away from knocking on the door of the position’s top-six options.