Importance of Rushing QBs in Fantasy Football
Dual-threat QBs join pass-catching RBs as the closest thing fantasy football has to a cheat code. These archetypes regularly accumulate multiple facets of production, giving them the sort of fantasy-friendly volume that more one-dimensional players can only dream of.
Only three rookie QBs have finished as top-12 fantasy scorers over the past 10 years: Dak Prescott (QB9 in 2016), Kyler Murray (QB11 in 2019), and Justin Herbert (QB7 in 2020). Murray and Herbert went first and sixth overall, respectively, while Prescott slipped to the fourth round and only started because Tony Romo suffered a back injury in the preseason.
Going further back beyond the last 10 years, four additional QBs finished as top-12 fantasy scorers in their rookie seasons in recent memory: Robert Griffin III, Andrew Luck, and Russell Wilson all in 2012 and Cam Newton in 2011.
There are two common factors associated with these QBs who found success in their rookie years.
The first is an immediate path to starting opportunity, as all of the names listed above were starting QBs for their respective teams heading into Week 1 of their rookie seasons except for Herbert. The other is that each of these QBs had demonstrated a solid rushing floor in college.
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Even with sacks accounting for a loss of rushing yards in college, the heavy majority of these successful rookie QBs still managed to average at least 25 rushing yards per game. Here are their per-game rushing totals from college:
- Newton: 79 yards
- RGIII: 55 yards
- Prescott: 52 yards
- Murray: 51 yards
- Wilson: 28 yards
- Luck: 25 yards
- Herbert: 13 yards
Sep 8, 2019; Charlotte, NC, USA; Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton (1) carries the ball during the third quarter against the Los Angeles Rams at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports
Herbert is again the lone exception, although his elite 9.69 relative athletic score painted the picture of someone capable of achieving more on the ground at the next level.
The history of draft capital tells us that the earlier a player is drafted, the better chance they have of putting up big fantasy numbers relative to late-round picks for two reasons.
One is that earlier-drafted players are generally more talented. There will certainly be some exceptions to this rule, but there’s a reason why so many mock drafts and pre-draft rankings usually include the same pool of finely-tuned athletic machines.
The other is because teams are naturally more willing to give their highly-drafted prospects more chances to succeed relative to later-round picks. Seeing as how the performance of high-profile early-round picks can make or break coaching staffs and front offices alike, it’s tough to blame the decision-makers for trying to be absolutely positive about their early-round investments before throwing in the towel.
As a result of these two factors, 21 of 26 QBs drafted inside the top-10 overall picks have started at least 10 games as a rookie since 2010.
So to recap, historically, highly-productive rookies QBs have started out of the gate and managed to post plenty of rushing production in college. The lone exception, Herbert, started in Week 2 of his rookie year and boasted the sort of borderline-erotic athletic profile to believe that he had more to offer as a runner than what he showed in college. Cool? Cool.
Fantasy Life CEO Eliot Crist’s latest mock draft has the top four rookie QBs all flying off the board inside the top five picks of the 2023 NFL Draft.
Tennessee QB Hendon Hooker is the only other signal-caller with a consensus Big Board value in the top three rounds this year. He might not be starting from Day 1 like some of his counterparts in the 2023 draft class, but perhaps Hooker could get lucky and find his way to one of the position’s more fantasy-friendly landing spots.
Let’s break down just how much rushing upside each of the 2023 NFL Draft’s consensus top five QBs possess. Note that Anthony Richardson was the only one to test athletically at the combine, making him the only qualifying QB with a certified Relative Athletic Score (RAS).
Bryce Young
- College rushing yards per game: 4.8
Bryce Young barely had more rushing yards (162) than carries (139) at Alabama. Even accounting for the fact that sacks count as rush attempts in college, that's still pretty wild.
Of course, Young’s alleged 4.52 40-yard dash time paints a far different picture of what he might be capable of at the next level. The 2021 Heisman Trophy winner uses his legs to buy time and create throwing lanes rather than to take off and scramble, but Young did occasionally show off some big play ability with his legs when the opportunity presented itself.
The much-discussed issue that could prevent Young from producing much as a runner in the NFL is his lack of size. While Young’s 5’10, 204 lb. frame isn’t all that far off from Kyler Murray, who's 5’10 and 207 lbs., the two QBs are worlds apart in terms of their collegiate rushing production.
Young certainly seems to have the ability to pick up yards in a hurry with his feet, but the best ability is availability, and we have plenty of evidence that the odds-on favorite to be the No. 1 overall pick right now understands his physical limitations and won’t be making a habit of putting up big-time fantasy production on the ground.
C.J. Stroud
- College rushing yards per game: 5.2
Yes, there are some examples of C.J. Stroud making some rather great things happen with his legs. Whether it was the rainy Northwestern game, big-time scrambles against Georgia, or even the very first TD of his collegiate career, Stroud can make defenses pay with his legs when left unaccounted for.
On the other hand, Stroud had more rushing yards in his first and last games at Ohio State (82) than the other 24 games in-between (54). The man has literally said himself that his job is to throw the ball, not run:
“Nah, not at all. If my job was to run the ball, I’d be a running back or something…I throw the ball for a living. Sometimes, of course, it might look obvious when you throw the ball and everybody runs to the ball, ‘Oh, he should have ran it.’ But I feel like I do my job when my number’s called.”
Dec 31, 2022; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) looks to pass the ball as Georgia Bulldogs defensive back Javon Bullard (22) closes in during the third quarter of the 2022 Peach Bowl at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: John David Mercer-USA TODAY Sports
Stroud outlined his skillset rather perfectly. He can do the deed and pick up yards on the ground when his number is called, but don’t expect him to make a habit of taking off and scrambling in lieu of doing everything in his power to throw the ball first.
My comp for Stroud is Jared Goff if Goff theoretically had ability to run. It’s unlikely that Stroud will flirt with big-time fantasy numbers as a rookie unless an NFL team has a much different opinion on using him as a runner than he does.
Anthony Richardson
- College rushing yards per game: 50.7
- RAS: 10
As the most fantasy-friendly QB prospect in the class, Anthony Richardson is consequently my highest-ranked rookie as of now heading into the NFL Draft. Richardson's list of accomplishments is pretty ridiculous.
Per Pro Football Focus (PFF), the Florida QB's 0.36 missed tackles forced per carry ranked eighth among 320 QBs with at least 100 carries in a season dating back to 2015.
It's easy to see how he forced all those missed tackles considering that Richardson took a flamethrower to the NFL Combine by setting QB positional records in the vertical jump (40.5") and broad jump (10'09). On top of that, Richardson became the first QB weighing over 230 lbs. to ever run a sub-4.5 40-yard dash.
Given his combine metrics, it's not all that surprising that Richardson has the highest RAS score (10.0) of any QB in the database dating back to 1987. After all, the man nicknamed himself “Cam Jackson” in the 11th grade and was quoted as saying, "Just trying to make big plays, just like Cam Newton and Lamar Jackson.” That's some king shit.
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It remains to be seen if Richardson can develop as a passer, but goodness…it’s already impossible to deny just how lethal the 21-year-old QB can be on the ground, so his passing production may not even matter much for fantasy purposes.
High-volume rushing threats like Taysom Hill have managed to post legit QB1 fantasy numbers despite not being able to hit the broad side of a barn as passers. Even Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, and Josh Allen were fantasy hits as rookies despite sub-par passing production.
Don’t underestimate Richardson’s ability to rise up the ranks in a hurry if/when a starting opportunity is thrown his way.
Will Levis
- College rushing yards per game: 19.5
On the one hand, Will Levis’s physical tools and startling inconsistency has earned him plenty of Josh Allen comps, because what else are people supposed to call talented yet inexplicably bad college QBs?
On the other hand, the former Penn State and Kentucky QB does boast 72nd and 87th percentile marks in the 40-yard dash and Burst Score per Player Profiler.
His rushing numbers in 2019 (51-213-3), 2020 (82-260-3), and 2021 (107-376-9) paint the picture that Levis is a legit threat on the ground. Levis's underwhelming final season last year with negative 107 rushing yards looks ugly at first, but it's explained in large part due to loss of yardage from taking a whopping 37 sacks.
Overall, Levis flashed some serious ability as a runner in the open field in college.
As The Athletic’s Dane Brugler notes in his ever-fantastic draft guide, “The Beast”, Levis "offers functional run skills and is a physical finisher to routinely pick up extra yardage after contact.”
Levis demonstrated more willingness and ability on the ground in college than Young or Stroud did, so don’t underestimate Levis’s potential to be a far better fantasy QB than real-life QB early on in his NFL career, perhaps even as a rookie.
Hendon Hooker
- College rushing yards per game: 46.2
Hendon Hooker racked up at least 350 rushing yards and five scores on the ground in each of his four seasons as a starting QB in college, both at Virginia Tech as well as at Tennessee.
His reported 4.77 40-yard dash shows up on film when attempting to get the corner in the red zone, and Hooker has shown some serious wiggle at times when featured on speed options and other designed runs.
The funky Tennessee offense didn’t place a premium on having Hooker scramble, but he did at least occasionally show the ability to work out of structure and make something out of nothing with his feet.
Overall, Hooker racked up 45 rushes of 10-plus yards over his final two collegiate seasons. The incoming rookie might already be 25 years old, but he’s shown plenty of ability as a runner over the years and figures to offer at least a somewhat decent rushing floor from Day 1 in the NFL.
Potential late-round gems
The following QBs aren’t expected to be selected very early in the 2023 NFL Draft, but they do boast a consensus Big Board rank inside the top seven rounds. Their respective rushing profiles do suggest some fantasy upside due to rushing ability if any of them eventually find an opportunity to as a starter in the NFL.
UCLA QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson
Dorian Thompson-Robinson might have the best wiggle of any incoming rookie QB. DTR was unleashed in Chip Kelly’s UCLA offense to the tune of 130-609-9 and 118-645-12 rushing lines over the past two seasons. While size concerns are warranted with DTR measuring at 6’1 and 203 lbs., he has shown Kyler-esque knowledge of knowing when to extend the play and when to get down and live to play another day.
Houston QB Clayton Tune
Clayton Tune has a nose for the end zone and trails only Richardson in RAS score (9.81) in the 2023 QB class. Tune's 6.89 three-cone time led all QBs at the NFL Combine this year and also demonstrates his short-area quickness. Unlike several other of these projected late-round 2023 QBs, Tune boasts the requisite size to theoretically handle a robust rushing role in the NFL at 6'2 and 220 lbs.
Georgia QB Stetson Bennett
Stetson Bennett had just 530 rushing yards in 41 career games (12.9 rushing yards per game), but he tested well with a 4.67 40-yard dash and ranked in the 79th percentile in SPARQ-x score. At minimum, Bennett is capable enough to scramble for chunks of yards if left unaccounted for and factor into an NFL offense’s rushing equation near the goal line.
TCU QB Max Duggan
Max Duggan scored 28 rushing TDs during his four years at TCU, and the 2022 Heisman runner-up's 4.52 40-yard dash further demonstrates his rushing potential at the next level. With at least 15 rush attempts in 11 separate games at TCU, Duggan has both the ability and willingness to run that could make him a fantasy sleeper.
One of the best examples of his rushing ability is this ridiculous game-tying drive against Kansas State during which Duggan basically single-handedly (footedly?) led the offense all the way down the field for a TD.
BYU QB Jaren Hall
Jaren Hall averaged a respectable 27.6 rush yards per game during his collegiate career. His 7.96 RAS score was just a tick below elite territory and ranks 187th out of 911 eligible QBs since 1987. Hall has the ability to pull away in the open field and could surprise as a runner in the NFL if afforded the opportunity.
Louisville QB Malik Cunningham
Malik Cunningham ran for an absurd 3,179 yards and 50 TDs during his five seasons at Louisville. He boasts legit straight-line speed, having run a 4.53 40-yard dash, and Cunningham also demonstrated plenty of agility in the open field. The main concern is whether 5’11, 192 lb. QB can hold up at the pro level if he attempts to replicate his rushing production from college.
