The Dynasty Values of Sam Darnold, Justin Fields, and Daniel Jones
Jonathan Fuller and Sam Wallace will break down the latest trends across the dynasty landscape to help you stay a step ahead of your leaguemates — both rebuilders and those in win-now mode.
Today's topic: The dynasty values of buzzy QBs.
Sam Darnold, QB, Vikings
Jonathan: It's a lame answer but I want to hedge my bets and say Darnold is a short-term buy, long-term sell in dynasty leagues. He should be on the QB1/QB2 border for the rest of this season thanks to a great scheme and dynamic weapons.
Darnold's 8.4 YPA is on pace for a career high and he's leading the NFL in TD passes. He may not sustain that level of production but he's a good bet to be a startable fantasy QB for the rest of this season.
The problem is the Vikings already have their QB of the future in J.J. McCarthy. My expectation is that we're going to see Darnold's best football this season, and that should be good enough to earn him a chance to start somewhere else. If you're buying him in dynasty beyond this year you're essentially hoping that the landing spot is as good as the Vikings, something I don't want to bet on.
I'm not saying you have to sell him immediately — the window to trade him should be open all the way through this offseason, but if you can turn Darnold into a future late first round pick in superflex I would be all over that deal.
Sam: It's hard to believe that one of the biggest storylines of this season has been the play of Sam Darnold. Pressed into the starting role after rookie J.J. McCarthy (knee) was lost for the season, Darnold has led the Vikings to a 3-0 start.
Darnold, who is with his fourth team, is still only 27 years old and clearly has the talent to be a quality NFL QB. He just needed the right environment and it's looking like Kevin O’Connell is providing just that.
Having Justin Jefferson certainly helps, but the star receiver is about the only viable option the Vikings have. Jordan Addison (ankle) and T.J. Hockenson (knee) have both been out — although the former should be back soon. This team could get even better offensively as the season progresses.
In SuperFlex formats, I'm all in on Darnold. Yes, the Vikings spent a first-round pick on McCarthy but if Darnold has a successful season and leads this team to the playoffs…can they really move on? It's going to be a fun season/offseason but for now, let's enjoy the ride.
If you need a QB2 in your SuperFlex dynasty league, I'd make an offer of an early 2nd round pick or even a late 1st round pick.
Justin Fields, QB - Steelers
Jonathan: When evaluating Justin Fields for dynasty, it's important to remember that he is only 25 years old — not even a year older than rookies Bo Nix and Michael Penix.
The funny thing about Fields' dynasty value is that the question isn't his fantasy productionn — nhe's proven to be a valuable asset when on the field. What is less certain is his ability to hold a starting job for the long-term after Chicago moved on from him. Through his first two games as the starter in Pittsburgh, Fields was asked to play very conservatively. In Week 3, we finally saw some splashier plays.
Will the Steelers continue to open up the offense? Or just ask Fields to be a game manager who adds a bit with his legs? Pittsburgh didn't make a big commitment to him, so he's on a short leash when it comes to retaining the starting job. For now, I'm expecting Fields to remain the starter but we've seen him have good stretches before — and they haven't lasted. I'm very open to the idea that he could struggle and be replaced by Russell Wilson this season.
It's also important to remember that the NFL did not value Fields highly this offseason, so he's really going to have to show that he's made progress as a passer in order to get a team to view him as their future. We're seeing flashes that indicate it could happen, but he's going to have to build on this strong start to really change minds. The good news is that his current team doesn't have a long-term starter in place, so Fields could be the answer if he continues his solid play.
Of these three QBs we're analyzing in this column, I think Fields has the widest range of outcomes. If he makes a leap as a passer, he has the talent to be a top 10 dynasty QB. But he could also be a career backup following this season. History suggests it's usually worth cashing in on players like this when their value spikes, but Fields has enough upside where I want to bet on the outlier scenario coming through — because that is how you build juggernaut dynasty teams that win multiple championships.
Sam: Despite all the offseason drama about who would be the starting QB for the Steelers, an untimely injury to Russell Wilson (calf) made for an anticlimactic start to the season. However, all Justin Fields has done is not screw up en route to a somewhat surprising 3-0 start.
Through Week 3, Fields is averaging just 172 passing yards per game but (more importantly) has only committed one turnover. The defense has more than done its part by only allowing 8.6 points per game.
Let's not get ahead of ourselves. Looking ahead, the Steelers' schedule gets infinitely harder (they rank 23rd in our strength of schedule tool). From Weeks 11-18, here are Pittsburgh's opponents:
- Browns x 2
- Bengals x 2
- Ravens x 2
- Chiefs
- Eagles
If Fields makes it that far as the starter, that gauntlet could very well end his season. Unless Fields starts playing lights-out football, Wilson is going to see the field sooner rather than later. I would be staying away/holding Fields at this stage in dynasty formats. He's not someone I am looking to pursue.
Daniel Jones, QB - Giants
Jonathan: Irony: I believe Daniel Jones is the least talented of the three QBs we are discussing today — yet he has the clearest path to solid long-term fantasy value. Jones still has two years remaining on the $160 million extension the Giants gave him and has looked pretty good in his last two games.
Malik Nabers is the real deal and his presence should help keep this Giants offense functional. Add in Jones' rushing ability and you have a serviceable fantasy QB (Dwain McFarland has him projected for 24.5 fantasy points in Week 4, for context). He's not going to be a league winner, but a starting QB with a solid floor is a valuable commodity in SuperFlex leagues.
Public opinion is low enough on Jones that he won't cost all that much in a trade relative to the odds that he is a starting QB for more seasons. This makes him a strong dynasty value and an ideal QB3 or QB4 for a competing SuperFlex roster.
As with all trades, cost is important, but Jones is a savvy buy for competing rosters that need QB depth. A late second round pick should be enough to acquire him from a team that isn't in the championship hunt.
Sam: Talk about a massive turnaround for Daniel Jones. After a disastrous Week 1 performance in which he threw zero TDs, two INTS, and was sacked five times, Jones has looked like a real-life NFL QB.
Over the last two weeks, he's tallied:
- 414 passing yards
- 4 TDs
- 52 rushing yards
He's also topped 24 fantasy points in consecutive weeks and is currently a high-end QB2.
There's also been a direct correlation between Jones' resurgence in production and the amount of work rookie wideout Malik Nabers has been getting. Go figure – getting your best offensive player the ball as often as possible helps a QB look good.
However, from a dynasty perspective, I'm out on Jones. The sample size is getting too big and there's mounting data that he can't consistently be a quality NFL (or fantasy) contributor. If this stretch of high-end production helps open a sell window and you can flip him to a competing team, I would look to cash out on Jones.