The dynasty landscape is uniquely fascinating in fantasy football. Player values can change because of injury, team situations, draft picks, free agency, and contract situations.
It's important to keep each of those variables in mind when building your roster. Here are three teams with uncertain and potentially undervalued offenses for dynasty fantasy football that could afford savvy managers an edge over their league.
Dynasty rankings courtesy of KTC.
Green Bay Packers
This one feels like hometown bias, but I promise you it is not.
It's no secret that the Green Bay Packers had one of the youngest rosters in football last season and it looks like it'll be the same again this year.
Over the second half of 2023, Jordan Love officially made his arrival to the league and was one of the best QBs in football from Week 10 through the playoffs.
The Packers have a unique bunch of wideouts and none of them are priced inside of the top 30 in dynasty ADP. There's value here somewhere, but in which direction should dynasty managers go? Let's see if we can find an edge.
- Jayden Reed - WR31
- Christian Watson - WR40
- Romeo Doubs - WR51
- Dontayvion Wicks - WR57
None of these four WRs topped 100 targets; each of them topped 400 receiving yards and all had at least four TDs. It's also worth noting that Green Bay had nine players with at least 200 receiving yards last year. Talk about spreading the ball around.
While some may point to the lack of a true WR1 as a detriment, the Packers have certainly made the most of the group they have.
Did you even know who Bo Melton was before last season? Me either.
The equal distribution of opportunities (and production) last season has led to a grouping of ADPs for each of the top-four wideouts.
Watson was initially pegged as the downfield, vertical threat with alpha-upside but soft tissue injuries plagued his 2023 campaign. Doubs profiles as an intermediate threat, almost like a discount Diontae Johnson or Keenan Allen. Reed plays a Deebo Samuel-like role and is explosive in the open field. Wicks has even been compared to Davante Adams.
So, where do we go from here? Let's check out the utilization data.
On paper, Watson is the best of the bunch. He does profile as the most likely to assume an alpha-like role in an offense with the size and speed to beat defenders all over the field. Also, his aDOT is consistent with that type of down-field threat. His ADP is quite palpable (WR40) but health is going to be his biggest concern.
This final note sounds a bit like a cop-out answer, but honestly, I want shares of each of these guys across my different leagues.
As mentioned, Reed (while the most expensive) has unique, explosive play ability and it's hard to ignore some of the Wicks/Adams comps. Regardless, each of these four offers cheap access to a young, ascending offense that should be fruitful for fantasy for years to come.
Denver Broncos
Despite all the news coming out about how Sean Payton supposedly galaxy-brained the rest of the league into letting him draft Bo Nix with the 12th overall pick, I'm honestly quite excited about the landing spot and long-term fantasy outlook for the Broncos.
His age (24) is certainly a big question mark but Ian Hartitz highlighted just how prolific Nix was during his two years at Oregon:
Enter The Oregon Ducks, who brought in Nix and proceeded to lead all Power-Five schools in offensive TDs (146), yards per play (7.4), and EPA per play (+0.3) during the 2022 and 2023 seasons. Naturally, the (at this point) veteran QB was a big reason why.
Nix among 89 Power Five QBs with 300-plus dropbacks 2022-23:
- PFF pass grade: 91.3 (tied for No. 2)
- Passer rating: 126.1 (No. 1)
- Yards per attempt: 9.2 (No. 7)
- Adjusted completion rate: 84% (No. 1)
Overall, no Power 5 QB scored more total TDs than Nix (94) over the last two seasons. Hell, Caleb Williams (93) was the only other signal-caller within 15 scores of him.
Payton and Nix should mesh well from a player/coach perspective and the rookie should operate well within this offensive system. The question then is who will Nix be throwing to and who should dynasty managers prioritize in startup drafts?
- Troy Franklin - WR54
- Courtland Sutton - WR62
- Marvin Mims - WR67
The cheapest Bronco wideout is priced outside the top 50. Tough times in Denver.
Still, for me, I'm easily taking Franklin at cost. Once again, Ian provided some next-level analysis about why dynasty managers should be excited about the speedy rookie.
While getting paired with Bo Nix in this ever-high-flying offensive attack helped matters, Franklin’s game-breaking speed (4.41-second 40-yard dash) proved to be the linchpin of a Ducks offense that scored more TDs (146) than anyone else over the last two seasons.
Overall, there wasn’t a more efficient QB-WR duo than Nix and Franklin when it came to passer rating when targeted. You truly don’t need more than one hand to count the number of more productive WRs in college football since 2022:
Franklin among 125 qualified Power 5 WRs in 2022-23:
- PFF receiving grade: 87.1 (No. 8)
- Passer rating when targeted: 144.9 (No. 1)
- Receiving yards: 2,274 (No. 4)
- Receiving TDs: 23 (No. 2)
- Yards per route run: 2.85 (No. 6)
- Yards per reception: 16 (No. 21)
- Targets per route run: 24.7% (No. 38)
I'm always going to be a sucker for those college teammate/NFL teammate narratives. It's so easy to imagine how excited these young guys were when they dominated together in college and now have the chance to develop together at the next level.
Franklin's lack of high-end draft capital pushed down the board a bit, especially in our Rookie WR Model where he comes in at No. 14. Still, at his current dynasty price, it's hard not to be all in.
Franklin is really the only Broncos wideout I want to roster.
Cleveland Browns
The Cleveland Browns started an absurd five different QBs last season but still managed to win 11 games and make it to the playoffs (thanks, Joe Flacco). With the hope that their multi-million dollar investment in Deshaun Watson can play a full, healthy season, how should dynasty managers approach the Browns' wideouts?
- Amari Cooper - WR42
- Jerry Jeudy - WR59
- Elijah Moore - WR84
Fantasy managers will fondly (or not-so-fondly) Cooper going absolutely nuclear during the fantasy playoffs last season. During Weeks 15 & 16, he posted a ridiculous 374 receiving yards and three TDs on 15 receptions (23 targets).
In his nine-year career, Cooper has never finished lower than WR34 in PPR formats, and that was back in 2017 when he only appeared in 14 (career-low). Despite being on his third team, and playing with a brutal group of QBs, he finished with a career-best 1,250 receiving yards in 2023.
Moore was highly touted coming out of college after playing alongside both A.J. Brown and D.K. Metcalf. Unfortunately for Moore, it really hasn't panned out. His one finish inside the top 50 was back in 2021 as a rookie.
Aside from Cooper & Moore, it was TE David Njoku who served as one of the top weapons for Cleveland last season and led the team in receiving TDs.
Enter, Jeudy.
He's the wild card of the bunch. The Browns traded for him from Denver this offseason and signed him to a three-year / $58 million contract with $41 million guaranteed. Despite being the newcomer, I'm thinking I may take a swing on him compared to the other wideouts on the team.
First, he offers the ideal balance of age (25 years old) and dynasty price (WR59). Despite being more productive, Cooper is nearly 30 and is 17 spots more expensive. Moore is only a year younger than Jeudy but hasn't done enough for me to really prioritize him despite him being far cheaper.
Second, Jeudy has that fresh, new contract. Say what you will about the Browns organization shelling out cash but, in an ideal world, they're going to want to feature their shiny new investment.
As dangerous as it is, assuming health prevails for Watson, Jeudy is my preferred selection at wideout in dynasty startup drafts.