Week 10 Dynasty Breakout Watch. A Vikings RB Comes Back to Life.

Hopefully, you survived this week without Christian McCaffrey and the rest of the 49ers playmakers. We have another killer bye week coming up with the Chiefs, Eagles, Dolphins, and Rams not playing. Get ready. 

Anyways, throughout the season, I’ll be highlighting players I believe are on the verge of breaking out. For you dynasty managers, you may want to acquire these players before their value spikes.

Alexander Mattison - RB, Vikings

There weren’t too many players that were as polarizing as RB Alexander Mattison this offseason. Following the departure of long-time Viking Dalvin Cook, Mattison was thrust into the RB1 role with loads of expectation and even more hype.

On the positive side, Mattison had been the poster child for RB handcuffs throughout his career. Whenever Cook missed a game, Mattison was there to gobble up the workload and produce some solid fantasy numbers.

Here are a few examples of Mattison dropping week-winning performances in Cook’s absence:

• Week 17, 2020 - 24 touches, 145 total yards, 2 TDs
• Week 3, 2021 - 32 touches, 171 total yards
• Week 5, 2021 - 32 touches, 153 total yards, 1 TD

See what I mean? The allure was there in a big way.

However, there was reason for skepticism as Mattison’s ADP rocketed up boards over the summer. First, he hasn’t topped 3.8 yards per carry since 2020. Most of his big fantasy performances were buoyed by massive volume. In a vacuum, he really isn’t that good of a player.

Over the summer, Ian Hartitz brought us this nugget to consider when deciding where to draft Mattison:

Here’s the catch: This Vikings backfield ranked just 22nd in expected PPR points per game last season in large part due to head coach Kevin O’Connell taking a page out of former mentor Sean McVay’s playbook and not featuring the RB in the passing game. Overall, the Rams and Vikings ranked 32nd and 27th in targets to the position last year.

So drafters needed to make the call on a player who, in theory, should see significant volume but hasn’t been that efficient with it outside of a few spot starts.

This season, Mattison does have double-digit carries in six of nine games (nice) but has yet to score on the ground. He’s somewhat made up for it with three receiving TDs.

Now, the 2023 campaign is turning out much different for Minnesota than we expected, especially with the loss of Kirk Cousins for the rest of the season. Justin Jefferson (hamstring) is eligible to return next week but his status remains up in the air.

In Week 9, the Vikings were forced to turn to Josh Dobbs sooner than anticipated but he performed admirably as the team ground out their fifth win of the season.

The other big piece of news came when it was reported that RB Cam Akers was believed to have torn his Achilles. If that’s the case, then even more volume could be headed Mattison’s way. The Vikings season is still wide open and if they can string together a few more wins and get Jefferson back and healthy, that could bode well for Mattison’s fantasy prospects.

Carrying a dynasty ADP of RB43, Mattison is in that unique range where his price point and upside potential match quite nicely. He’s only 25 years old and figures to be the undisputed RB1 for a solid football team for the rest of the season. I don’t mind buying in on that opportunity.

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Keaton Mitchell - RB, Ravens

Rookie RB Keaton Mitchell went undrafted before eventually signing with the Baltimore Ravens. He spent three seasons at East Carolina where he amassed 3,027 rushing yards and 25 rushing TDs. Perhaps even more impressive, he hauled in 60 receptions for 580 yards during his collegiate career.

While our Rookie RB Model didn’t love Mitchell (No. 17 among RBs), there are aspects of his profile that offer some intrigue. He had a career explosive rush rate of 21% which tied Zach Evans for the best mark in this class. Mitchell also entered the league as the fourth-youngest RB (21.6) which certainly doesn’t hurt from a dynasty/longevity perspective.

His athletic measurables match what we see in the rookie model. His 4.37 40-yard dash (99th percentile) and 127.6 burst score (88th percentile) back up his strong explosive rush rate.

After landing with the Ravens, Mitchell didn’t see his first NFL snap until Week 7 and didn’t receive his first carry until Week 9. This week, he erupted for 138 rushing yards and a score on just nine attempts. A few starters rested during the fourth quarter but Mitchell still capitalized on his opportunity.

Let’s not get it twisted, veteran RB Gus Edwards is still the unquestioned starter. He now has six rushing TDs over his last three games and seven total on the season. However, he’s 28-years old and fellow RB Justice Hill, while only 25-years old, has been wildly ineffective throughout his 4+ seasons in the league.

That leaves J.K. Dobbins. The starter to begin the season, he tore his achilles in Week 1 and is on the mend for the rest of this season. He’ll be 25-years old when he returns next season and we’ll have to wait and see how his recovery progresses.

There’s certainly a viable path, albeit a small one, for Mitchell to earn more work over the second-half of this season and beyond. He’s going to be a popular waiver pickup this week once people skim the box scores but the Ravens offense is one I would want pieces of regardless.

Mitchell’s current dynasty value is RB64. It’s going to tick up in the days and weeks ahead but I don’t mind jumping on this train and seeing where it goes.

Darnell Mooney - WR, Bears

It’s been a steady decline in both value and production for fourth-year WR Darnell Mooney. He broke out as a sophomore in 2021 with an impressive line of 81 / 1,055 / 4 on a whopping 140 targets. His dynasty value then peaked at WR24 but, unfortunately, he hasn’t been able to replicate that same level of production.

Mooney is seeing about 80% of the routes and accounts for almost a quarter of the air yards, but his inability to earn targets at a significant clip continues to hamper his upside.

It’s been an erratic season for both Mooney and the Bears organization. Justin Fields (thumb), who has not played since Week 6, was just finding his stride after a pedestrian start to the season. Newly acquired WR DJ Moore erupted for nearly 50 points in Week 5 and had either 100+ receiving yards or a TD in four straight games but hasn’t topped 55 receiving yards in his last four outings.

As for Mooney, he’s been steady but not impressive. He’s averaging 50 receiving yards per game over his last four games but hasn’t found the end zone since Week 1.

The offense is certainly lacking the dynamic punch it brings with Fields under center.

The reason I’m bringing up Mooney is his price. It’s dropped to the point where I think dynasty managers who were previously out need to get back in.

Mooney’s dynasty ADP sits at WR74. That makes him a bit of a post-hype sleeper. He’s not someone you would start with confidence outside of the deepest leagues, but at that price, and at just 26-years old, Mooney is a player I want to buy back. There’s hope that Fields (or another QB to come) can get this passing game moving in the right direction.

Kyle Philips - WR, Titans

This one hinges on whether or not Will Levis can hang onto the starting job in Tennessee but, for sake of discussion, let’s say he does.

That prospect could make someone like WR Kyle Philips an intriguing dynasty stash.

A second-year player out of UCLA, Philips appeared in just four games as a rookie, the last of which came back in Week 5. He did not see the field until Week 5 of this year but, over his last two performances, he’s racked up seven receptions for 92 yards.

In five full games this season, Ryan Tannehill averaged 210 passing yards per game. In his two starts, Levis is averaging 250 passing yards per game. Levis’ ability to extend plays and rocket the ball down the field certainly opens up the passing game which makes ancillary players like Philips more interesting.

While veteran DeAndre Hopkins (31-years old) is the undisputed WR1 for this team, the WR2 role is more open than it should be. Sophomore Treylon Burks should be a lock for that spot based on college production, draft capital, and pedigree, but he just hasn’t been able to put it together yet. He’s now in the concussion protocol so his status remains up in the air.

The Titans wide receivers do have a top-five easiest rest-of-season schedule so there’s even more reason for optimism surrounding Levis and his pass-catchers. Philips is a below-average athlete but his agility score (91st percentile) highlights that he could be shifty enough to make a few plays down the field.

Philips’ dynasty ADP (WR109) suggests he’s likely available in your (and every) league. If you are truly desperate for someone to fill your last starting spot, I suppose Philips would qualify. However, I would prefer to stash him on my bench while he’s still free and unknown by most dynasty managers. If Levis is indeed the future of his team, there’s a definite upgrade for all receivers.