Hopefully, you survived this week without Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, A.J. Brown, & DeVonta Smith…wow. We have four teams on bye this upcoming week (Falcons, Colts, Patriots, Saints). Get ready.
Anyways, throughout the season, I’ll be highlighting players I believe are on the verge of breaking out. For you dynasty managers, you may want to acquire these players before their value spikes.
Kyren Williams, RB - Rams
Sophomore RB Kyren Williams, who had just 44 touches as a rookie (10 games), burst onto the scene over the first six weeks of this season. Before an ankle injury landed him on IR, take a look at just how dominant he was.
To put it another way, here are his per-game numbers during that stretch:
- 18.3 touches per game
- 93.5 scrimmage yards
- 18.5 PPG
- 7 total TDs
Williams handled 73% of the rushing attempts AND had a route participation mark of 74%. He also dominated in both the LDD snaps and 2min snaps, high-leverage situations for fantasy output. Talk about a second-year breakout.
As mentioned, an ankle injury cut short his promising start. The Rams have since turned to a combination of Darrell Henderson and Royce Freeman with mixed results in Williams’ absence.
The Rams began the season with a fairly aggressive, pass-heavy approach but have since settled into an evenly-paced, balanced offensive attack.
The status of QB Matthew Stafford (thumb) could certainly shake things up for this offense. The Rams also signed Carson Wentz which could mean whatever you want it to. Hopefully, the team isn’t desperate enough to trot out Wentz but in 2023 anything is possible.
The Rams enjoyed their bye week in Week 10 and Williams is unable to return until at least Week 12. However, I’m plugging him as a dynasty breakout candidate now because his perceived value is lower than it was a few weeks ago because of his injury.
Now would be a great time to reach out to the Williams’ manager in your dynasty league and offer him a replacement RB to get through another week of not having Williams. I wrote about the Rams’ explosive second-year RB back in Week 4 after his early-season eruption and subsequent ascension in dynasty rankings.
The window of opportunity to acquire a 23-year-old RB with a proven workhorse role might never be as open as it is right now. Don’t be afraid to spend up to land a player who can both help you this season and in the seasons to come.
Williams' current dynasty ADP is RB19. He’s in the same range as David Montgomery, Rachaad White, Rhamondre Steveson, and James Cook. It’s certainly an intriguing group to decipher, but Williams is the youngest of the bunch so that’s something.
Your roster construction may prevent you from trading for and rostering a player who is still two weeks away from seeing the field, but if you can swing it, it’s something you should strongly consider for both this season and in the seasons to come.
Zach Charbonnet, RB - Seahawks
Let’s get a little aggressive. Normally, I recommend players I think can reasonably be acquired but sometimes we really have to shoot our shot and “buy high” to land true difference-makers.
Let’s take a closer look at rookie RB Zach Charbonnet.
Selected in the second round by the Seattle Seahawks, it was a move that limited the short-term upside of both Charbonnet and incumbent Kenneth Walker.
Jonathan Fuller wrote an excellent dynasty rookie profile on Charbonnet and had this to say:
Charbonnet then transferred to UCLA, where he went on to absolutely dominate the Pac-12 during his junior and senior seasons. While I would've liked to see him enter the NFL after his junior year, Charbonnet did end up helping his draft stock with a monster campaign in 2022 as a senior. He was second-team All-American and first-team All-Pac-12, and Charbonnet had the second-highest PFF rushing grade among all RBs with at least 100 carries.
For context, here’s how Charbonnet performed over his final two seasons:
- 398 rushing attempts
- 2,496 rushing yards
- 61 receptions
- 518 receiving yards
- 27 total TDs
Walker has certainly proved to be a capable roadblock for the rookie. Heading into Week 10, Charbonnet hadn’t topped nine rushing attempts in a game and has yet to score a TD.
But not all hope is lost. Let’s keep in mind a longer-term horizon.
Dwain McFarland noted a not-so-subtle and equally-as-important shift in the Seahawks backfield over the last two weeks. Here’s what he had to say:
Over the last two games, Charbonnet led the Seahawks in snaps. Walker held onto the primary rushing role, but Charbonnet led the way in route participation, taking over 100% of the LDD and two-minute offense…It is worth noting that Walker was battling an injury heading into Week 8, and the Seahawks played in blowout conditions in Week 9 against the Ravens. However, Charbonnet out-snapped Walker 69% to 35% in the first half of Week 9 before the game was entirely out of hand.
For added context, here’s how Walker & Charbonnet compared from Weeks 8-10.
In Week 10, Walker out-carried Charbonnet 19-6 but, once again, the rookie was more involved in the passing game with five targets to just two for Walker.
Charbonnet was a consensus top-3 RB in this class and that was reflected in our Rookie RB Model as well. He came in at No. 3 behind only Bijan Robinson and Jahmyr Gibbs. Charbonnet has everything you want in an NFL tailback: draft capital, size, explosiveness, and pass-catching capabilities.
Unfortunately, his landing spot hasn’t been ideal. But that does create buying windows for savvy dynasty managers.
Charbonnet carries a dynasty ADP of RB23. That’s even lower than the aforementioned Williams which, in a vacuum, feels crazy. The dynasty manager in your league who has Charbonnet spent premium draft capital to get him, but after so many weeks of inconsistent usage, there may be an opportunity for you to trade for him.
The efficiency has been there (5.3 YPC) and the snap usage is trending in a positive direction. Let’s get in on Charbonnet before the true breakout performance occurs.
Irv Smith, TE - Bengals
Relative to expectation, TE Irv Smith has been a bit of a disappointment over his career. He was a second-round pick out of Alabama back in 2019 and spent four seasons with the Vikings, appearing in just 37 games.
Now with the Bengals, Smith is arguably in a better environment with Joe Burrow leading the passing attack but he’s still buried being premium talent in WRs Ja’Marr Chase & Tee Higgins.
Smith has 4+ targets in four of seven possible games and his route participation is at least serviceable.
There’s a path, albeit a small one, for Smith to carve out a larger role in the seasons ahead. Chase is the undisputed WR1 for this team and is on the verge of a record-breaking contract. It’s possible that Higgins prices himself out of Cincinnati and takes a sizable contract elsewhere next season.
That leaves veteran Tyler Boyd as the only remaining pass-catcher with a proven track record. Boyd is solid but not someone to build an offense around. He’ll be 29-years old next season and is pacing for his lowest finish since 2017.
That leaves Smith. He won’t blow you away with his athleticism but he does have an 86th percentile 40-yard dash and a 70th percentile speed score. As mentioned, his team environment is the best he’s been a part of and he could find himself in a situation where he’s tasked with taking on a larger role.
The Bengals dealt with injuries over the first month of the season but have started to fire on all cylinders as of late. You can see that difference in their team style and how their overall PPG has become much stronger and consistent.
Of course, with Burrow, there’s always the tendency to become more-pass heavy. As one of the best young QBs in the game, high-passing volume will never be a concern.
Smith is not an expensive asset in dynasty formats. His current ADP is TE37 so he’s either on waivers (free) or someone you can easily trade for (cheap). If you play in a deeper, TEP dynasty format, he’s worth a stash as someone who could develop over the middle/later portion of their career.
Chigoziem Okonkwo, TE - Titans
Dynasty managers looking for the next breakout TE; a tradition unlike any other.
Thankfully for us, there’s always players and narratives we can spin, so let's take a look at sophomore Chigoziem Okonkwo.
As a rookie, Okonkwo posted a modest line of 32 / 450 / 3 on 46 targets and finished as the TE25 in PPR formats. In Year 2, he has 4+ targets in 75% of his games but has yet to find the end zone.
His usage has been solid but there’s ample room for growth and improvement, which is exciting for his future prospects.
Rookie QB Will Levis has officially been named the starting QB after taking over for an injured Ryan Tannehill. The immediate returns have been promising. Levis is averaging 250 passing yards per game compared to just 210 passing yards per game for Tannehill (5 healthy games).
Behind veteran WR DeAndre Hopkins, Okonkwo is actually No. 2 in targets and receptions. Not bad for a second-year TE still growing into one of the most challenging positions to learn.
Okonkwo does have the elite athleticism we crave when identifying TEs who potentially make the jump to the next level. He sports a 96th percentile 40-yard dash and a 92nd percentile speed score. Those are the things we absolutely love to see.
Okonkwo isn’t as cheap as the aforementioned Smith; his dynasty ADP is TE21. However, he has a clearer path to immediate and future production. The emergence of Levis brings with it the potential to take this offense to new heights and Okonkwo is in prime position to capitalize on that offensive ascension.
You can target Okonkwo before the true breakout on Underdog Fantasy, where you can get a 100% deposit match of up to $100 when you sign up below!
