Week 13 Dynasty Breakout Watch. A Veteran WR Turns Back the Clock.
With Thanksgiving behind us and the fantasy playoffs ahead of us, it’s time to lock it in and get ready for the home stretch.
Throughout the season, I’ll be highlighting players I believe are on the verge of breaking out. For you dynasty managers, you may want to acquire these players before their value spikes.
Brandin Cooks, WR - Cowboys
I might be late to this party but I’ve seen enough; if you are a competing dynasty team you need to go make an offer for Brandin Cooks yesterday.
Cooks (in)famously topped 1,000 receiving yards with four different teams from 2015-2020. Now with the Dallas Cowboys, he’s emerging as a consistent secondary option for Dak Prescott. After a slow start to the season where he failed to top 40 receiving yards heading into a Week 7 bye, he’s turned it on over the last month.
Cooks has now topped 40 receiving yards in four of his last five games and has three TDs in that span. He’s also topped 80% route participation in consecutive weeks and has a 16%+ target share in two of his last three outings.
There’s no denying that CeeDee Lamb is the undisputed WR1 for this team and TE Jake Ferguson is carving out his piece of the pie as well. Still, even at 30-years old, Cooks possess that field-stretching component this offense needs to fire on all cylinders.
Since their Week 7 bye, Prescott has been absolutely cooking. Dallas is running their offense through him and it’s been a thing of beauty for fantasy managers. From Weeks 8-12, here’s how elite Prescott has been:
- 320 passing yards per game
- 38.5 PPG
- 18 total TDs
That pass-heavy approach certainly benefits all pass catchers and Cooks provides the perfect opportunity to get in on the fun without breaking the bank.
Cooks has little to no dynasty value at this stage of his career. He’s currently the WR71 with a trade value of a mid/late 2024 third round pick. I would easily pay that (or more) to land Cooks for the final push of the season. He provides the perfect depth piece that all contending teams should be looking for.
I also think it’s possible Cooks provides value beyond this season. If Dallas is looking to keep this core together on both sides of the ball, they could bring back Cooks and seek to run it back again next season. He’s the ideal sell candidate for non-playoff teams and the ideal buy candidate for playoff contenders.
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Jerry Jeudy, WR - Broncos
It’s been a bit of a roller coaster for Jerry Jeudy, now in his fourth season with the Denver Broncos. From a standout at Alabama to a first round draft pick in 2020, Jeudy peaked in Year 3 when he finished as the WR22. That season, he hauled in 67 receptions for 972 yards and six TDs.
Heading into this season, Ian Hartitz spoke highly of Jeudy in his Denver Broncos Team Preview:
Last year, Jeudy's 2.18 yards per route run was tied for 12th among WRs, and his 77.9 PFF receiving grade ranked 21st, so he has the underlying efficiency numbers of a stud WR…if Denver's overall offense can improve. Regardless, Jeudy’s end-of-season boom shouldn’t be ignored. Here are Jeudy's receiving lines and positional rankings in PPR over the final five games of 2022:
- Week 14: 8-73-3, WR1
- Week 15: 7-76-0, WR22
- Week 16: 6-117-0, WR14
- Week 17: 7-38-0, WR28
- Week 18: 5-154-0, WR3
This season, with a new head coach in Sean Payton and a (hopefully) resurrected Russell Wilson, hopes were high but he’s struggled to be anything more than a flex option at best for much of the year.
Jeudy’s underlying metrics are solid. He’s earning an 18% target share and 18% TPRR. However, he’s reached double-digit fantasy points in just five of ten games.
Despite the up-and-down nature of this season (and much of his career, for that matter), Jeudy has topped 50 receiving yards in six of his last nine games. That’s a decent floor for fantasy managers looking to safely fill out the back of their starting lineup as the fantasy playoffs inch closer.
Denver has been a tricky team to evaluate and their 56-5 record seems to reflect that. They’re 15th in points scored (21.7 PPG) but 30th in points against (26.8 PPG). You’d think their suspect defense would lead to more shootouts and/or garbage time points but it just hasn’t materialized. Here’s how they stack up against opposing offenses:
- QBs - 22nd
- RBs - 32nd
- WRs - 10th
- TEs - 32nd
Jeudy carries a dynasty ADP of WR45. I’m fine buying in on that price. He’s still only 24-years old and has elite route-running chops. If you can acquire a talented, first-round WR at a discount in the prime of his career, you better at least shoot your shot and see what happens.
Tyler Conklin, TE - Jets
It’s the same story every year. The main characters are even the same. Outside of a few elite options, fantasy managers are left scrambling to consistently fill their TE slot each week.
This season, it’s even worse.
Longtime stalwarts Mark Andrews and Darren Waller have struggled to stay on the field and it took until the midpoint of the season for George Kittle to break the good-week/bad-week stretch. And don’t even get me started on Kyle Pitts.
What I’m trying to say is there are still a few leftover TEs who could help fill out your roster if you need them and they might even have value beyond this season.
That’s where Tyler Conklin comes in. (We truly are desperate)
The fifth-year veteran spent his first four years in Minnesota and is on the heels of back-to-back TE16 finishes. While that’s nothing to write home about, if you’ve been lacking consistency at the position, the (gross) volume he’s earning each week could be just what your roster needs.
He has 5+ targets in seven games this season despite playing with arguably the worst carousel of QBs we’ve ever seen a professional franchise roll out.
It’s common knowledge for everyone except the Jets that Tim Boyle has no business starting for an NFL franchise. However, his penchant for throwing to the TE position could bode well for Conklin as we get to the most critical weeks of the fantasy football regular season.
Conklin is currently the dynasty TE38. If you need a stop-gap player at a notoriously thin position, and don’t mind getting into bed with the Jets offense, Conklin could be just what your roster unexpectedly needs.
Tucker Kraft, TE - Packers
Tucker Kraft was the second TE selected by the Green Bay Packers when they drafted him at No. 78 overall. Luke Musgrave went No. 42 overall.
A four-year player at South Dakota State, Kraft is an above-average athlete with solid measurables across the board.
- 40-yard dash - 73rd percentile
- Speed score - 81st
- Burst score - 67th
- Agility score - 75th
- Catch radius - 74th
Toss in a strong yards per team pass attempt mark to go along with his solid draft capital and age and Kraft came in at No. 4 in our Rookie TE Model.
Dwain McFarland noted the following about Kraft when breaking down his rookie TE tiers:
At South Dakota State, Tucker posted 74th-percentile career YPRR (2.33) and 63rd-percentile best YPRR (2.38) marks. If he had delivered similar production against Power Five opponents, those marks would be strong enough to place him in Tier 2 after factoring in his 24% explosive target rate. It is worth noting that Tucker received interest from programs like Alabama ahead of his junior season, according to Dane Brugler.
Through Week 9, Kraft had just two receptions on two targets. However, he now has five receptions (seven targets) for 53 yards and a score over his last three outings. With Musgrave on injured reserve for at least three more games, Kraft has an opportunity to step up his involvement.
Ian Hartitz even showed Kraft some love over Thanksgiving weekend:
Kraft's 88% route rate in Week 12 was beyond elite – he’s immediately in the mid-tier TE2 conversation and could even join the top-12 discussion during bye-heavy weeks inside of this ascending Packers passing game.
The Packers’ offense finally appears to be finding its identity. They sport the youngest offense in the league and it shows. We see flashes of brilliance from Jordan Love and Co. but it’s never for longer than a quarter or two. Overall, they’ve been a balanced offense but the potential for big performances through the air is right there.
