The last “big” bye week is finally behind us and just two remaining teams have their bye next week (Cardinals & Commanders). It’s crunch time. Let’s make it happen. 

Throughout the season, I’ll be highlighting players I believe are on the verge of breaking out. For you dynasty managers, you may want to acquire these players before their value spikes.

John Metchie, WR - Texans

The Houston Texans selected WR John Metchie III 44th overall in the 2022 NFL Draft. Metchie went on to miss his entire rookie season after being diagnosed with leukemia. Thankfully, he was able to make his professional debut back in Week 2 of this season.

Metchie spent three years at Alabama where he peaked in his final season. In 2021, he posted a line of 96/1,142/8. He joins a long line of NFL WRs who played for the Crimson Tide and patient dynasty managers might finally get a chance to see what he can do on the field.

The emergence of fellow wideouts Nico Collins and Tank Dell has forced Metchie into a complementary role. Both Collins and Dell entered Week 13 as top-18 WRs. By contrast, Metchie has not caught more than two passes in a single game this season.

John Metchie Game Logs

Dell suffered a fractured fibula in Week 13 and is out for the rest of the season. Noah Brown (knee) returned from a two-game absence to put up zero fantasy points and Robert Woods has topped three receptions just once since Week 3.

All that being said, there's an opportunity for Metchie to step up immediately in Dell’s absence. Looking to next season, Woods is already 31-years old and Brown will be seven years into a career where WR58 is his highest finish.

There’s a path for Metchie to slide into a definitive WR3 role behind Collins and Dell moving forward. Rookie QB C.J. Stroud has burst onto the scene as a rookie and appears poised to elevate this offense for years to come.

Texans Game Styles

Metchie’s dynasty ADP sits at WR74. In what is essentially his rookie season, he’s flying under the radar and dynasty managers should take notice. It’s hard to find a better overall team environment that is ripe for opportunity for a top-45 NFL draft pick paired with a young, ascending QB.

A.T. Perry, WR - Saints

The New Orleans Saints selected rookie WR A.T. Perry in the 6th round (195th overall) of the NFL Draft this past spring. A four-year player for Wake Forest, he put together an impressive final two seasons:

  • 152 receptions
  • 2,389 receiving yards
  • 26 receiving TDs

Unfortunately, his low draft capital, older age, and lack of high-end athleticism all pushed him down the list in our Rookie WR Model. Perry came in at No. 22 overall in the model.

Dwain McFarland provided a few insights into Perry’s profile back in March:

Perry’s career dominator rating (24%), YPTPA (1.89), and explosive target rate (18%) all register below the 50th percentile. His career YPRR (2.44) is slightly above average at the 53rd percentile…His best YPTPA (50th percentile) and YPRR (49th) are still average compared to prospects dating back to the 2017 class.

However, with fellow wideouts Michael Thomas and Rashid Shaheed banged up and missing time, Perry has stepped up in recent weeks.

AT Perry Game Logs

What we’ve seen from Perry in terms of air yards and aDOT matches what we saw from him in college. Dwain noted, “The former three-star recruit operated on the outside, attacking downfield with a 15.0 aDOT for Wake Forest. A quarter of Perry's targets came on throws 20-plus yards downfield.”

He’s been the ideal fill-in for Shaheed who also operates primarily as a deep option.

As mentioned, Perry is an older rookie who turned 24-years old this season. While historical data suggests we should be targeting younger wideouts, when we’re scraping for potential fill-in players in dynasty we don’t mind taking chances on someone like Perry.

Perry carries a dynasty ADP of WR80 so there’s minimal risk in stashing him. You could even seek to flip him for future draft capital if he hits a few big plays over the final few weeks of the season. Turning waiver wire pickups into draft capital is one of my favorite dynasty pastimes.

Alec Pierce, WR - Colts

Second-year WR Alec Pierce is quietly putting together a decent stretch of games following the Colts’ Week 11 bye. He’s totaled 12 targets over his last two contests, topping 100 yards and scoring a TD in Week 13.

Alec Pierce Game Logs

He may play a complementary role to Michael Pittman and Josh Downs, but Pierce is earning time on the field. As you can see, his route participation is well north of 90% for the season and he’s seen 55+ snaps in every game this season.

The transition from Anthony Richardson to Gardner Minshew took some adjusting but Minshew has settled into a high-passing volume role, especially in recent weeks. Over his last seven games, Minshew is averaging 36.5 passing attempts per game and he’s been over 40 attempts in each of his last two.

Colts Game Styles

Those run-heavy games might not continue with the loss of Jonathan Taylor (thumb) for 3-5 weeks and the early returns have indicated a much more pass-heavy approach. Pierce and the rest of this offense should continue to benefit if the offensive game plan and overall game script lends itself to more passing volume.

Pittman is a free agent at the end of this season so it remains to be seen if the Colts will pay him or not. Downs is a rookie and has shown flashes of dominance but if Pittman were to sign elsewhere, Pierce could slide right into the WR2 role on an offense that should be above average.

Pierce carries a dynasty ADP of WR76. There’s minimal risk in taking a chance he steps up over the remaining weeks of this season. Even looking beyond, the former second-rounder has the potential to stake his claim as a consistent fantasy asset on this offense.

Xavier Gipson, WR - Jets

The New York Jets signed undrafted rookie WR Xavier Gipson following the NFL Draft back in early May. A four-year player for Stephen F. Austin, Gipson erupted over his final two seasons as both a receiver and kick/punt returner:

  • 139 receptions
  • 2,530 receiving yards
  • 21 receiving TDs
  • 3 return TDs

Gipson may have played at an FCS school (as opposed to a FBS program), but he still dominated when he was on the field. Here’s just one example:

He sports a 74th-percentile 40-yard dash and an 83rd-percentile agility score so the athleticism is certainly there for some on-field production.

Admittedly, it’s certainly a…choice…to be suggesting an undrafted rookie wideout for the Jets. However, a closer look at this depth chart will show that behind Garrett Wilson, there’s really no viable second option that can offer consistent production.

This season obviously hasn't turned out the way that Jets faithful anticipated. Still, Gipson has made the most of recent injuries and has earned more time on the field.

Xavier Gipson Game Logs

While it hasn’t resulted in much production (yet), it’s worth noting that he did haul in five of his six targets for 77 yards in Week 13. Gipson also continues to be involved in both the kick return and punt return aspects of the game so there’s potential for additional scoring opportunities.

If you’re gonna take a shot on someone, you may as well take a shot at an undrafted rookie who isn’t even ranked in dynasty. Assuming Aaron Rodgers returns to full health next season, the entire offense will be elevated and Gipson could turn into a viable fantasy asset.

Dynasty Breakout Watch