Week 17 Dynasty Breakout Watch. Prioritize these pass-catchers.

It’s Championship Week. You know what that means. Let’s put the finishing touches on your roster and win this thing. Even if you were not a playoff team, there’s always a reason to look ahead and acquire value for your team. 

Throughout the season, I’ll be highlighting players I believe are on the verge of breaking out. For you dynasty managers, you may want to acquire these players before their value spikes.

Demarcus Robinson, WR - Rams

I can’t believe I’m recommending Demarcus Robinson in the year 2023 but here we are. Have we mentioned these are unprecedented times? For a guy who didn’t earn his first target until Week 9, Robinson has become the quintessential “league-winner”.

He’s scored in each of his last four games and, during that four-game stretch, has averaged:

• 6 targets per game
• 57 receiving yards
• 16 PPG

That type of fantasy output, especially over an entire month, isn’t something we can simply dismiss. We’ve seen Robinson’s route participation increase along with his aDOT and air yards share to support that level of production.

Despite being the third option behind Cooper Kupp & Puka Nacua, Robinson has managed to carve out a meaningful role over the last month. The driving force behind this surge in offensive production is Matthew Stafford.

Over his last 5 games, Stafford has been absolutely dealing. Here are his per/game averages from Week 12-16:

• 277 passing yards
• 2.8 TDs
• 30.2 PPG (6 points per TD)

The Rams are very much looking like a team that you don’t want to face in the playoffs. They have talent across the board at every offensive position and playoff experience where it matters most (HC/QB). Expect them to be a tough out for opposing teams down the stretch if Stafford keeps posting gaudy numbers.

In Week 17, the Rams face a Giants defense that ranks near the bottom of the league in points allowed to opposing wideouts. With the Rams very much in contention for a playoff spot, except another heavy dose of Stafford & Co.

Robinson needs one more TD to set a new career-high mark and it could happen next week. He’s the WR134 (not a typo) in dynasty formats and could be the missing piece your title-bound team needs for the final week.

Trey Palmer, WR - Buccaneers

If your fantasy team is not competing for a title next week, it’s the perfect time to start making speculative stashes on players who could increase in value in the weeks and months ahead. It’s worth remembering that players you acquire don’t always have to make your starting lineup. You can hold them and flip them for draft capital if/when their value increases.

Rookie WR Trey Palmer landed with the Buccaneers after they drafted him in Round 6 last spring. After spending three uninspiring years at LSU, Palmer finished his collegiate career at Nebraska where he had an impressive final season:

• 71 receptions
• 1,043 receiving yards
• 9 TDs

While he came in at No. 24 in our Rookie WR Model, he did post one of the best single-season dominator ratings of anyone in this class.

Palmer has quietly had a decent year as far as Round 6 rookies go. He’s appeared in the box score in each game and has topped 70% route participation 10 times.

Baker Mayfield has revitalized his career in Tampa Bay and Mike Evans continues to show why he’s been one of the absolute best WRs in football for the last decade. Still, it’s worth looking ahead to the future.

Evans is 30-years old and won’t play forever. Chris Godwin (27) has had a down year by his standards and has just four receiving TDs since the start of last season. Palmer is the clear WR3 and could see his role and usage increase as early as next season.

Palmer brings excellent athleticism as demonstrated by his 4.33 40-yard dash (98th percentile) and 107.7 speed score (89th percentile). Those are the types of measurables that will keep you on the field and getting opportunities more often than not. Let’s hope Palmer can continue to make the most of them.

In dynasty formats, Palmer is the WR72. He’s already established himself as a solid WR3 option and has 5+ targets in six of his last 11 games. Fantasy managers shouldn’t be afraid to make a move to acquire and stash Palmer soon. His profile lends itself to someone who could rise the ranks this offseason.

Andrei Iosivas, WR - Bengals

The Cincinnati Bengals drafted Andrei Iosivas in Round 6 of the NFL Draft last spring. A small school prospect out of Princeton, Iosivas went 66 / 943 / 7 during his senior season. His lack of draft capital and underwhelming college profile did him no favors. He came in at No. 25 in our Rookie WR Model.

However, he did post a strong career dominator rating which, for you analytics junkies, is pretty impressive.

Iosivas stepped up in Week 16 without Ja’Marr Chase (shoulder) in the lineup. The rookie posted a respectable 4 / 36 on eight targets. It remains to be seen if Chase will miss additional time so Iosivas is at least worth a casual glance, especially in dynasty/deeper formats.

In dynasty, we always want to be looking ahead and using upcoming deadlines, benchmarks, and potential roster moves to inform our current decisions. Chase is locked in as a cornerstone piece for this franchise. However, Tee Higgins could find himself on another roster next fall.

As for veteran Tyler Boyd, he’s 29 years-old and is an unrestricted free agent after this season. Simply by staying healthy, Iosivas could find himself climbing the depth chart and building more chemistry with Joe Burrow and/or Jake Browning.

In dynasty formats, Iosivas carries a dynasty ADP of WR104. If he was drafted at all in your dynasty rookie draft, it was late and the manager (hopefully) isn’t very attached. Make a move and stash him for next year in the hope he gains some value between now and then.

Gerald Everett, TE - Chargers

I’ve written about the TE position through a dynasty lens a few times this season and have always wound up with (relatively) the same conclusion: if you have an elite option, you stick with them no matter what, and if you don’t, you constantly look for the next breakout option.

What if I told you there was a middle option that didn’t involve either A) backing up the Brinks truck for a Mark Andrews type or B) cycling through rookie after rookie?

Let’s take a look at the cast-off middling options who might be a bit older. Players like these won’t break the bank and could offer you enough of a floor of production to keep you from taking an L at the TE position each week.

Gerald Everett fits this description.

Everett finished as the TE13 last season and was a popular late-round option this season. After all, being tied to Justin Herbert certainly has its perks. Unfortunately, this season just hasn’t panned out. Through Week 11, he only topped 10 PPR twice.

However, he’s had a bit of a resurgence over the last few weeks. From Weeks 12-16, here are his per/game numbers:

• 6.6 targets
• 5.0 receptions
• 41.8 receiving yards
• 10.4 PPR

This stretch of games includes transitioning from Herbert to Easton Stick. To his credit, Stick has played well over his last two outings. In both Weeks 15 & 16, he’s topped 32 passing attempts and 215 passing yards. There’s enough volume for Everett to carve out a usable role and dynasty managers should take notice heading into the final week(s).

Everett is the dynasty TE30 and is an unrestricted free agent after this season. There is reason enough to plug and play him this week if you are desperate but his future remains up in the air. The Chargers are undergoing structural changes to their coaching staff and may choose to address the TE position via the draft and/or free agency.

However, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Austin Ekeler are all aging. If Everett makes it to 2024 on this roster, he’ll be a usable piece for Herbert for at least another year.