If we could just turn off injuries for the next few months, that would be great. What a wild Week 2. Let’s get into Week 3.
Throughout the season, I’ll be highlighting players I believe are on the verge of breaking out.
For you dynasty managers, you may want to acquire these players before their value spikes.
Jalin Hyatt, WR - Giants
Let the rookie edition of the Dynasty Breakout Watch series commence!
It’s easy to get excited about incoming prospects, especially in dynasty formats. At the same time, we have to be patient. Look, not everyone can step onto the field and immediately be a world-beater like Puka Nacua.
As more teams treat preseason games like glorified walk-through practices, the initial weeks of the regular season can be equal parts wonky and frustrating. Eventually, the cream (talent) rises to the top, as they say.
After being held without a catch in Week 1, WR Jalin Hyatt flashed his elite play-making ability this week by reeling in both of his targets for 89 yards.
Big plays? Awesome. Two targets? Ehh. But we gotta start somewhere, right?
A third-round selection, Hyatt broke out in 2022 by finishing second among Power Five WRs with 1,267 yards and first with 15 TDs.
Dwain McFarland noted just how much of an improvement Hyatt made during his final season:
"Hyatt’s average depth of target (aDOT) over his first two years was 12.2 yards, but in his final season, that surged to 18.9. And his explosive target rate followed, exploding from 23% to 28%. Hyatt’s 1,085 yards and 13 TDs on plays with over a step of separation ranked No. 1 in the Power Five in 2022, per PFF data."
It’s also worth noting that Lance Zierlein ranked Hyatt as his No. 1 WR prospect and compared him to DeSean Jackson.
The accolades are there; let’s hope Hyatt can keep making improvements.
QB Daniel Jones has long-term job security (for now) and led a masterful comeback in Week 2. As long as he keeps performing at an above-average level, Hyatt should keep making strides as a more consistent weapon for the Giants.
Hyatt carries a dynasty ADP of WR55 which is too low for a big-time playmaker waiting to happen. I’d look to make a move before a true breakout game happens.
Tank Dell, WR - Texans
I never thought I’d be pounding the table for the Texans offense two weeks in a row but, as has been the phrase of the last few years, these are “unprecedented times”.
Nathaniel “Tank” Dell was selected by Houston with the 69th (nice) overall pick last spring. Joining second-overall pick C.J. Stroud, Dell and fellow WR Nico Collins could form a nice trio for both real and fantasy football.
Like the previously mentioned Hyatt, Dell came into the league with plenty of accolades and the data to back them up.
He led the American Athletic Conference in receiving yards during his 2021 season and was the NCAA leader in his final season as a Houston. The former Biletnikoff Semifinalist, Dell was a target hog who won all over the field.
Chris Allen notes, “While he played 60.1% of his snaps from the slot, he lined up outside too—but not just as a decoy. Dell’s 29.7% slot TPRR aligned with his 25.5% TPRR from the perimeter.”
Dell is a proven target-earner. His 35% career dominator rating and his career yards per team passing attempt (2.60) are both No. 1 in this class.
He’s certainly undersized (5’10” / 165 lbs) but he’s quickly establishing chemistry with a fellow rookie in Stroud. Veteran Robert Woods won’t be there long and the Stroud / Collins / Dell dynasty stack could be a fun one to invest in before prices go up.
Speaking from a dynasty perspective, Dell’s dynasty ADP is down at WR63. I don’t mind adding a few shares across my leagues as a bench stash. Depending on your league size, he could turn into a nice flex option at the end of your lineup.
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Jayden Reed, WR - Packers
I promise I’m not box-score scouting, only value scouting. Rookie WR Jayden Reed, a second-round pick from Michigan State, scored twice for the Packers in a Week 2 loss. He only totaled 37 receiving yards but was constantly moved around the formation and flashed his 4.45-40 speed.
Reed is one of just four rookies in this class to have a career dominator rating of at least 30%. The others are the aforementioned Dell, Zay Flowers, and Jordan Addison.
Sep 17, 2023; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Green Bay Packers wide receiver Jayden Reed (11) runs past Atlanta Falcons cornerback A.J. Terrell (24) for a touchdown in the second quarter at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports
He’s an older prospect so that’s a knock against him but he broke out as a junior and his skill set (primarily a slot WR) meshes well with QB Jordan Love. With Christian Watson handling the outside duties, Reed can move inside where he operates best.
If head coach Matt LaFleur keeps manufacturing touches for him, as he did on this TD, the opportunity for Reed to smash his current price in both redraft and dynasty is very high.
Reed’s dynasty ADP sits at WR51. Dynasty managers should be capitalizing before Love & Co. really start clicking on all cylinders.
Tyjae Spears, RB - Titans
Wrapping up with an RB, Tyjae Spears landed with the Titans in the third round of the NFL Draft. Sitting behind Derrick Henry offers little value in the short term but, at 29 years old, even a beast like Henry will soon contend with Father Time.
In college, Spears overcame a 2021 ACL injury to erupt in 2022. That season, he averaged 6.9 yards per carry, with 1,052 of his 1,586 yards coming after contact. That’s impressive.
Eliot Crist profiled Spears back in April:
“What's more, Spears's performance wasn't limited to lower-level competition. He was crowned the Cotton Bowl MVP after rushing for a jaw-dropping 205 yards and scoring four touchdowns against USC.”
His 4.54-40 speed will prevent him from constantly running away from defenders, but his 91st-percentile burst score allows him to produce chunk plays and move the sticks.
In our Rookie RB Model, Spears checks in at No. 5 in his class. His 72% model score comes in behind Bijan Robinson (100%), Jahmyr Gibbs (87%), Zach Charbonnet (80%), and Devon Achane (74%). That’s not bad company to be in, all things considered.
Despite sitting behind Henry, Spears is already getting in some work. He’s racked up 11 rushing attempts for 76 yards (6.9 yards per carry). Explosive, efficient attempts, even on limited volume, will keep him on the field more often than not.
Spears sits just inside the RB3 range in dynasty with an ADP of RB35. That’s a fair price for a backup but, as we’ve seen across the RB landscape over the years, he could vault into the starting role at a moment's notice.
Dynasty managers looking for quality depth with upside need to take a long look at Spears before his value climbs.
