With three weeks complete, early-season trends are starting to appear. Let’s make the proper adjustments, look ahead, and get into Week 4.
Throughout the season, I’ll be highlighting players I believe are on the verge of breaking out.
For you dynasty managers, you may want to acquire these players before their value spikes.
Marvin Mims, WR - Broncos
I’ve been guilty of chasing efficient performances that didn’t have the necessary volume to back them up. I hope I’m not doing the same thing here.
Rookie WR Marvin Mims is a ton of fun to watch. He’s electric on the field and keeps showing us flashes of elite upside. Over the last two weeks, he’s racked up 186 receiving yards on just FIVE receptions.
37 yards per reception is insane. It’s also not sustainable.
Sean Payton and the Denver Broncos traded up into the second round to select Mims which speaks volumes to how they feel about him as a player. Despite sitting behind fellow WRs Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy, dynasty managers need to be making moves now while the opportunity is still there.
Sep 17, 2023; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos wide receiver Marvin Mims Jr. (19) runs for a touchdown against Washington Commanders safety Percy Butler (35) after a catch in the first quarter at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports
Coming out of Oklahoma, Mims checked virtually every box.
His 40-yard dash, vertical jump, and broad jump metrics all ranked in the 89th percentile or higher. In his dynasty rookie profile, Dwain McFarland noted:
Mims was an electric playmaker for the Sooners, with 32% of his targets going for 15 yards or more. Only Jaxon Smith-Njigba created chunk plays at a higher rate (34%) in the 2023 draft class. (He) played inside and outside, but one constant remained: his ability to stretch the vertical boundary. His career average depth of target (aDOT) of 16.7 yards grades out in the 79th percentile going back to the 2017 rookie class.
We’ve already seen that field-stretching ability on full display. Mims returned a kickoff 99-yards for a TD in Week 3. His target share isn’t where we would like it to be yet but recognizing that he’s still only 21-years old and sitting behind a pair of veteran WRs makes him the ideal trade target.
Speaking of his age, he’s the youngest WR in our Rookie WR Model in Tiers 1-3. To see flashes of upside this early is certainly encouraging.
Mims’ dynasty ADP is WR42. That’s perfect for a deep-threat, week-winning playmaker who should only see his usage and role expand throughout both this season and in the seasons to come.
Josh Downs, WR - Colts
Rookie WRs keep popping up in this series and for good reason. They remain cheat codes for dynasty managers as they are all but guaranteed to increase in value throughout Year 1.
Josh Downs was selected by the Colts in the third round of the NFL Draft. He’s a prototypical slot player (5’9” / 171 lbs) but has incredible production over his final two years at UNC. In 2021 and 2022, he totaled:
- 195 receptions
- 2,364 receiving yards
- 19 TDs
At the combine, his 10-yard split, vertical jump, and broad jump were all strong which backs up what you see on film; he creates separation with ease. Jonathan Fuller noted a few aspects of Downs’ game in his dynasty rooke profile:
Downs’ footwork is incredibly clean, which eliminates wasted movement and helps him to get out of his breaks quickly and create separation at the catch point. Creating timely separation is also an important factor in picking up yards after the catch. This skill was on display in 2021 when Downs finished third in the country with 754 total yards after the catch.
At the next level, Downs has played well given his situation. The Colts were without rookie QB Anthony Richardson (concussion) in Week 3 which meant the return of Gardner Minshew. Despite playing across from target-hog Michael Pittman, Downs is averaging eight targets per game. That’s great volume for a rookie wideout as he continues learning and developing.
With a dynasty ADP of WR 57, Downs provides intriguing upside. We know Richardson’s rushing ability adds a dynamic to this offense that’s been missing in Indy. Toss in the unknown with RB Jonathan Taylor and the presence of an alpha wideout like Pittman and there are certainly some variables to consider. Still, at that price, it’s worth buying in.
Romeo Doubs, WR - Packers
Second-year WR Romeo Doubs tied his career-high mark for TDs in a season (3) in just three weeks. He’s enjoying a mini breakout while teammates Christian Watson and Aaron Jones recover from their respective injuries.
Still, that doesn’t make what he’s doing on the field any less impressive. While he didn’t top 30 receiving yards in either of the first two weeks, he racked up 73 yards and his third score of the season in a comeback win over the Saints on Sunday.
Green Bay Packers wide receiver Romeo Doubs (87) fends off New Orleans Saints cornerback Isaac Yiadom (27) during their football game Sunday, September 24, 2023, at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wis.
On one hand, the lack of targets and yards is concerning because it’s tough to keep finding the endzone without consistent volume. But I also believe Doubs will have significant value in dynasty formats in the years ahead. QB Jordan Love has the offense making the right plays at the right time and, as this young team continues to grow and develop, Doubs will remain an integral component of what they do.
When both Watson and Jones return, Doubs could see his role diminish in the short term, but dynasty managers should not waver. In a few seasons, I truly believe this is an offense fantasy managers will look back on and wonder why they didn’t buy in when prices were low.
Doubs’ dynasty ADP sits at WR45. He isn’t getting the weekly usage to warrant a much higher ranking but I don’t think his price will ever be lower from a dynasty perspective. He’s a worthwhile addition for both rebuilding and competing teams.
Marquise Brown, WR - Cardinals
It doesn’t feel right to include a four-year veteran, former first-round pick in the dynasty breakout watch segment but it is the year 2023 and anything is possible.
Why does Marquise Brown have a dynasty ADP of WR40?
I mean I guess I sorta get it. The Cardinals are in the Caleb Williams sweepstakes (I think) and Kyler Murray is still without a firm return date.
But still, this is Hollywood Brown we’re talking about. After a quiet Week 1, he totaled 17 targets, 11 receptions, 115 receiving yards, and a pair of scores in Weeks 2 & 3. He never comes off the field and is the clear No. 1 option for an offense that has been better than expected.
Brown is a proven producer. He has 100+ targets in three straight seasons and now has 26 TDs in his career. That’s someone I want in my fantasy lineups.
If/when Murray returns, Brown could be a league-winner based on his offseason ADP and the immense upside he’ll give you down the stretch. He’s the ideal trade target in both redraft and dynasty leagues. Brown does face the 49ers in Week 4 so maybe hold off on trying to acquire him until next week.
