Week 5 Dynasty Breakout Watch. Quentin Johnston has the opportunity.
The great part about dynasty is there’s always something to look forward to.
Is your team 0-4? Let’s find some players to acquire now that can help you next year.
Throughout the season, I’ll be highlighting players I believe are on the verge of breaking out. For you dynasty managers, you may want to acquire these players before their value spikes.
Quentin Johnston, WR - Chargers
Sometimes you just have to pick a moment and call your shot. That’s the approach I’m taking with rookie WR Quentin Johnston.
Johnston was the second WR selected this past spring (21st overall) and landed with one of the best young, ascending QBs in Justin Herbert.
Johnston carries a dynasty ADP of WR30. It peaked at WR19 this offseason but has steadily fallen with his lack of production. He’s earned no more than three targets in a game through Week 4 and his 18 receiving yards this week was a new season-high mark.
It can’t get worse, right?
Our own Jonathan Fuller had this to say about Johnston back in February:
Of the three receivers I have in my top tier, Johnston has the widest range of outcomes. His physical traits give him a ceiling that very few receivers possess, but there are enough holes in his game that it isn’t too hard to see a bust case as well.
Johnston has the perfect opportunity to elevate his game with fellow WR Mike Williams set to miss the rest of the season with a torn ACL. Unfortunately for Johnston, his first game post-Williams saw him haul in just one of his three targets.
This is why I’m interested in him now. The perception of value can’t get much lower. I also think Johnston has the physical traits, coaching, and offensive system to improve across the board. Our Rookie WR Model slotted him No. 3 behind only Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Jordan Addison so we have high-hopes for him on our end as well.
Williams and Keenan Allen are aging out of the league and both have dealt with their share of injuries in recent years. If the 22-year old Johnston can step up his game and take advantage of this opportunity, he could see his dynasty value vault up. Being tied to Herbert has its perks and Johnston could work his way to being a premier fantasy asset.
Jaylen Warren, RB - Steelers
Earlier this week, I wrote about Najee Harris and how his dynasty value has steadily dropped over the last year plus. Fellow RB Jaylen Warren is one of the main reasons why.
Harris was a volume-driven back who thrived on dump-off passes from an aging Ben Roethlisberger. Now it’s Warren who is earning those coveted RB targets.
Through Week 4, Warren has out-targeted Harris 22-8 and has outscored him in PPR formats by a margin of 38.1-28.4. Neither has scored yet this season but it’s worth noting how their usage through the first few weeks compares in both the rushing and passing game.
Utilization data is the best. The routes, targets, targets per route run, and long down and distance snaps all stand out as positive indicators for Warren.
It’s highly unlikely that he’ll outright take the lead role from Harris, but when you factor in cost, ADP, and production, it’s no wonder so many managers invested in Warren this offseason.
Sep 18, 2023; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Steelers running back Jaylen Warren (30) runs with the ball against the Cleveland Browns defense during the third quarter at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Philip G. Pavely-USA TODAY Sports
Another variable to consider, at least in the short term, is the health of QB Kenny Pickett. Pickett left with a knee injury and has an MRI scheduled for early this week. If he is forced to miss time, veteran Mitch Trubisky would be the next man up. Any change at QB will have an impact on all facets of the game. It’s possible we see both Harris and Warren more involved in the weeks ahead.
Warren’s dynasty ADP sits at RB34. The true “breakout” game hasn’t happened (yet) but he’s more than just a handcuff option for Harris managers. Enjoy the PPR usage while the price is still palatable.
Jalen Tolbert, WR - Cowboys
Second-year WR Jalen Tolbert is already having a career-year. To be fair, he only caught two passes all of last season so it’s not saying much. Still, his line of 4/53 on four targets this week is a solid indicator that he could be creeping up the depth chart in Dallas.
Behind CeeDee Lamb, there really isn’t a sure-fire WR2 that you feel comfortable starting each week. Both Brandin Cooks (30-years old) and Michael Gallup (27 / post-ACL) have dents in their dynasty profile that keep Tolbert an intriguing depth stash.
Tolbert was a four-year player at South Alabama who, over his final two seasons, racked up 146 receptions, 2,559 receiving yards, and 16 TDs. He finished with a college dominator rating of 51% (97th percentile) and his college target share was 33% (96th percentile). The production profile is there; let’s hope the Cowboys can keep developing this young wideout into a fantasy-worthy asset.
The nice thing about Tolbert is he’s free. His dynasty ADP is down at WR105 so there’s virtually zero risk in stashing him. You could probably get him as an add-on to another deal but I have no problem sending out a late rookie pick for him. The combination of college production, draft capital, and team environment is too good to ignore from a dynasty perspective.
Michael Wilson, WR - Cardinals
If you haven’t been around much this offseason or early this season, Michael Wilson might be a newer name for you. The rookie WR was selected in the third round by the Cardinals back in April.
Through Week 4, he’s posted a line of 14/237/2 on 16 targets. He scored twice this weekend so you’re sure to hear/see his name a bit more now.
Throughout the offseason, there was a steady drumbeat for Wilson and the early returns have been positive. Chris Allen tabbed Wilson as a late-round WR to draft and Ian Hartitz touched on why Wilson was impressing throughout training camp.
The former Stanford product doesn’t jump off the page in our Rookie WR Model (14th overall) and he never broke 700 receiving yards or 5 TDs in a single collegiate season. Still, the Cardinals selected him at the end of Day 2 which is something we need to keep an eye on.
The Cardinals offense is in flux right now. There doesn’t appear to be a rush for QB Kyler Murray (ACL) to return to the field and, aside from Marquise Brown, there’s no WR on the team that commands significant targets.
Coming in at 6’2” 213 lbs, Wilson has the size that no other Cardinals’ wideout has. Well, Zach Pascal is essentially the same size but I’m not really counting him (sorry, not sorry). Brown, Rondale Moore, and even Greg Dortch are all smaller slot WRs. Wilson is averaging 14.8 yards per target and almost 17 yards per reception. Those are excellent numbers.
The QB situation is certainly worth monitoring as well. With no set return date for Murray, and the allure of Caleb Williams (USC) hanging over the league, it’s not a bad time to roster some shares of Wilson in keeper/dynasty formats. With a dynasty ADP of WR62, there’s minimal risk with excellent upside for Wilson.
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