Bye weeks are upon us which means it’s time to look ahead and take advantage of specific situations.
Throughout the season, I’ll be highlighting players I believe are on the verge of breaking out.
For you dynasty managers, you may want to acquire these players before their value spikes.
Kendre Miller - RB, Saints
The New Orleans Saints drafted rookie RB Kendre Miller in the third round of the NFL Draft. Miller, who came in at No. 6 in our Rookie RB Model, is one of the youngest RBs in this class.
A three-year player at TCU, Miller broke out last season to the tune of 224 rushing attempts for 1,399 rushing yards and 17 TDs. He also hauled in 16 receptions for another 116 yards.
In his dynasty rookie profile, Chris Allen noted:
Using a two-year sample, Miller was one of six RBs in the 2023 class who was above average in both yards after contact and forced missed tackles per attempt. Miller can be the ideal early-down complement for any NFL team's backfield.
Despite the three-game suspension for Alvin Kamara, Miller didn’t see the field until Week 3. Jamaal Williams (hamstring), who dominated the touches in Weeks 1 & 2 before his injury, has one more week before he’s eligible to return. At that point, it could become a messy RB2/3 situation behind Kamara.
Still, Miller has made the most of his time. From Weeks 3-5, he’s racked up 28 opportunities for 132 yards. Miller (21-years old) is also significantly younger than the aforementioned Kamara (28) and Williams (28). It’s only a matter of time.
Miller’s dynasty ADP sits at RB36. He’s the ideal target for any dynasty squad. If you are competing and want to get ahead of the curve for next season, snag Miller. If your dynasty team is mid (or worse), getting in on Miller, especially at a young age, is the ideal move for managers.
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Rashee Rice - WR, Chiefs
A Round 2 selection by the Kansas City Chiefs, rookie WR Rashee Rice came in with plenty of hype and expectation. Fortunately/unfortunately, any WR tied to Patrick Mahomes is going to come with a certain level of excitement.
Chris Allen highlighted just how versatile Rice was in college:
Taken over a two-year sample from PFF, Rice is one of four prospects with an above-average target per route run (TPRR) rate from the slot and out wide. He commanded targets regardless of alignment. Plus, he was efficient in both positions. Rice posted top-10 yards per route run (YPRR) marks within his class at each station. His 2.61 YPRR from the perimeter (10th) and 2.67 YPRR from the slot (6th) highlight his talent to contribute from Day 1.
Through Week 5, there’s nothing that immediately jumps off the screen about his utilization profile. Still, he has 5+ targets in four of five games and has scored twice.
In dynasty formats, I have no issue taking swings at any Mahomes-led offense. We know the yards and points will be there and even Travis Kelce can’t play forever.
I always try to follow the actions of a team, not just the hype. If the Chiefs were set on Skyy Moore (Day 2 pick last year) they likely wouldn’t have spent another Day 2 pick on a WR year.
Oct 8, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Rashee Rice (4) scores on a touchdown pass as Minnesota Vikings safety Camryn Bynum (24) and safety Harrison Smith (rear) attempt to break up the pass during the third quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports
In our Rookie WR Model, Rice (No. 10) comes in just behind the next player I’ll touch on. He’s an older prospect who didn’t truly break out until his fourth season at SMU. Still, that last season was impressive as he posted a line of 96/1,355/10 in 12 games.
The uncertainty at the Chiefs WR position has kept Rice’s dynasty ADP at a palatable WR47. If you want in, the barrier to entry is quite low. Kadarius Toney has yet to separate himself from the pack; Rice is the next one I would be willing to take a chance on in dynasty formats.
Jonathan Mingo - WR, Panthers
Rookie WR Jonathan Mingo was an early second-round selection by the Carolina Panthers this past spring. He joined a pass-catching room devoid of a singularly elite option (until Adam Thielen decided to go on a run) which made his upside potential exciting.
Back in April, Eliot Crist summarized the Mingo hype:
Standing at an impressive 6'1" and weighing in at 226 lbs, Mingo possesses a rare combination of size and athleticism that is difficult to overlook…He left the Combine ranked as the No. 2 athlete at WR per Player Profiler’s model, sporting a 96th-percentile speed score and 91st-percentile burst score.
We know athleticism isn’t everything, but it doesn’t hurt. Besides, what’s Ole Miss doing to their WRs down there that has them looking like they were built in a lab? I’m looking at you, AJ Brown & DK Metcalf.
No. 1 overall pick Bryce Young, who has struggled this season, put together his best game of the season this week. His 247 passing yards and three TDs were season-highs even though he’s still looking for his first win.
Mingo is averaging 6.5 targets per game and, if you account for him leaving early in Week 3 and missing Week 4 (concussion), his utilization numbers are strong.
Our Rookie WR Model slotted Mingo at No. 9 in this class. While that isn’t ideal, we have to recognize the broader context of his situation. If you believe in Young continuing to grow and develop as an NFL QB, I think Mingo has the chance to blossom into a fantasy-worthy asset.
Mingo carries a dynasty ADP of WR 54. There’s minimal risk in taking a shot at this young wideout and his usage, albeit on a struggling offense, hints at positive things down the road.
Curtis Samuel - WR, Commanders
Three rookies and a veteran. Let’s not forget about the “old guys”; they can help us win fantasy championships too, especially at a lower price point.
Very quietly, Curtis Samuel (27-years old) has 50+ receiving yards in four of five games this year. He’s also step-for-step with teammates Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson in terms of opportunity and production. Here are their respective target and air yards share:
McLaurin
- Target share - 18%
- Air yards share - 25%
Dotson
- Target share - 16%
- Air yards share - 18%
Samuel
- Target share - 16%
- Air yards share - 14%
Admittedly, Samuel isn’t used as a downfield threat as much as the other two, but his overall production and utilization profile matchup quite well. Plus, he doesn’t cost the same as his teammates.
With a dynasty ADP of WR68, he’s a low-risk investment. By comparison, McLaurin (WR33) and Dotson (WR38) are much more expensive and aren’t producing at a significantly higher level. Samuel could be the ideal bye-week or flex option in deeper formats.
