Would it be possible to just turn off injuries for the rest of the season? That would be great.
But hey, at least we got prime Cooper Kupp back. Let’s hope his impressive run continues. Throughout the season, I’ll be highlighting players I believe are on the verge of breaking out.
For you dynasty managers, you may want to acquire these players before their value spikes.
Michael Mayer - TE, Raiders
Let’s get weird and start with a rookie TE.
Michael Mayer is FINALLY starting to look like the player both Devy and Dynasty managers have been hoping for. After totaling just one reception on two targets in his first four games, he’s racked up seven receptions (9 targets) for 114 receiving yards over his last two outings.
He made his arrival known this weekend and Dwain summarized it perfectly.
Mayer slotted in at No. 2 in our Rookie TE Model and we’re starting to see why.
Ian Hartitz broke down Mayer’s profile last spring and noted how “Baby Gronk” is a problem in the open field. If defenders weren’t careful, they got beat down and run over.
Hartitz also noted how Mayer improved year-over-year and how he could just be scratching the surface of his potential.
- 2020: 71 PFF grade, 42-450-2, 1.39 yards per route run, 18% target per route run
- 2021: 80.6 PFF grade, 71-840-7, 1.99 yards per route run, 23% targets per route run
- 2022: 92.5 PFF grade, 67-809-9, 2.44 yards per route run, 31% targets per route run
His target-earning ability is going to make him a contributor at this level more often than not. While his overall athletic testing numbers won’t wow you, his short-area quickness, YAC prowess, and ability to line up all over the field will make him a valuable fantasy asset.
Mayer is admittedly going to be tough to acquire but that shouldn’t stop you from trying to make your team better. His dynasty ADP sits at TE14. The dynasty manager in your league likely spent decent capital to get him but “buying high” on potentially elite players is something I always recommend.
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Luke Musgrave - TE, Packers
Another rookie TE? And this one didn’t even play this week?!
Welcome to capitalizing on bye weeks. Let’s chat about rookie TE Luke Musgrave.
Despite leaving early in Week 4 (concussion) he’s averaging 5.5 targets per game in his other four healthy games. In those same games, he’s ran over 70% of the routes in all of them and has topped 80% route participation three times.
Musgrave showed out at the NFL Combine and posted elite athletic traits. Chris Allen wrote up a dynasty profile on Musgrave back in April and had this to say:
Musgrave’s metrics in his final season at Oregon State are like a ray of hope in a cloud of mid. He opened the season with a career-high 30% targets per route run (TPRR) and ran a route on 89% of Chance Nolan’s dropbacks over the first two weeks.
Unfortunately, a knee injury ended Musgrave’s senior campaign after that, so it's hard to read too much into his alpha-like numbers from those two games. That said, Musgrave's progression in yards per route run (YPRR) heading into 2022 lends credence to the idea that he was improving.
YPRR Percentile Ranks
- 2019 - 10th
- 2020 - 39th
- 2021 - 57th
Musgrave is also one of five TEs in this rookie class with above-average yards per team pass attempt (0.88) and aDOT (13.2). Sure, he only saw 76 total targets in four collegiate seasons, but there is ample reason for optimism.
The Packers have the youngest starting offense in football and it shows. However, this also provides a great buying opportunity for some of their younger pieces. Much depends on the continued development of QB Jordan Love but the price will never be lower on a player like Musgrave.
Musgrave came in at No. 6 in our Rookie TE Model which doesn’t sound great until you remember how strong this class is. His dynasty ADP is TE9 which honestly shocked me; I didn’t think it would be that high. Send out some feelers in your dynasty leagues and get a pulse on his market value.
Jake Ferguson - TE, Cowboys
I promise it’s not a bit; I’m committed to the “Week of the TE”.
Sophomore Jake Ferguson (#OnWisconsin) played second-fiddle to Dalton Schultz last season but has stepped into the lead role this year. Heading into Week 6, Ferguson has seen his route participation steadily increase.
After Week 5, Dwain McFarland made a significant note about Ferguson in his Utilization Report:
Ferguson’s 27% TPRR ranks No. 2 in the NFL for TEs that have run at least 80 routes. Who is in first place, you ask? Travis Kelce. I don’t mean to be overdramatic, but I want your attention. Ferguson is currently the TE8, averaging 9.5 points per game, but with a more prominent role, he has top-six upside.
Oct 1, 2023; Arlington, Texas, USA; Dallas Cowboys tight end Jake Ferguson (87) attempts to break a tackle of New England Patriots safety Jabrill Peppers (5) in the third quarter at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports
Ferguson followed up his strong Week 4 performance by posting a lowly 5.8 PPR but the opportunity and usage are still there. Dallas is on bye next week so there’s some game theory to take into account but if you’re coming at this from a dynasty perspective, it shouldn’t really matter.
Sporting a dynasty ADP of TE13, there’s room for potential when looking at Ferguson. Dallas did spend a second-round pick on Luke Schoonmaker (No. 7 in our Rookie TE Model) but the rookie has just one reception for one yard heading into Week 6.
The Dallas system of using TEs seems to have (somewhat) continued post-Schultz. The overall production is down but, as mentioned above, the utilization trend is noteworthy. Ferguson is worth a look in dynasty formats, especially with the Dallas bye week on the horizon.
Wan’Dale Robinson - WR, Giants
I wanted to wait until after the SNF matchup to decide if I was going to tack on a fourth TE here or go in a direction. Let’s take a closer look at sophomore WR Wan’Dale Robinson.
There’s no getting around it; the New York Giants have been objectively bad this season. The Daniel Jones contract and Darren Waller signing have both flopped and this team is looking like a far cry from the one that won a road playoff game last season.
Still, even the most putrid offenses can sometimes provide opportunity.
Through four games this season, Robinson has 25 targets (6+ per game). He’s only totaled 141 yards on those targets but his 8 / 62 on eight targets this week was an encouraging sign.
Robinson was a Week 6 Waiver Wire target last week and Chris Allen noted that, “...Robinson has become a primary weapon for the Giants with his 30.2% TPRR”.
Despite suffering a torn ACL in Week 11 of last season, Robinson is producing admirably. At just 22 years old, there’s plenty of time and room in his game for improvement. His dynasty ADP is currently WR61 which is up over a dozen spots from last month.
The price is not prohibitive if you want to take a chance on a talented, PPR-driven fantasy asset like Robinson.
