Congratulations on surviving the worst bye week of the season (so far). If you felt gross having to start certain players, just know you’re in good company.
Let’s keep our focus on what’s ahead and grind out some more Ws. Throughout the season, I’ll be highlighting players I believe are on the verge of breaking out.
For you dynasty managers, you may want to acquire these players before their value spikes.
Joshua Palmer - WR, Chargers
The draft capital (21st overall / Round 1) says rookie WR Quentin Johnston. The on-field production is pointing towards Josh Palmer (77th overall / Round 3).
Palmer was a bit of an enigma in 2022. He posted a line of 72 / 769 / 3 on 107 targets but disappointed over the final month. Figured to compete with Johnston for the WR3 role this year, Johnson has turned it on over the last few weeks. He’s tallied 7+ targets and 60+ receiving yards in four straight games.
His utilization has steadily increased since Mike Williams went down with an injury.
By comparison, Johnston is only running 45% of the routes and sports a lowly 7% target share. It’s not a death knell in dynasty formats but managers should certainly be concerned about their high draft pick’s lack of involvement.
Palmer carries a dynasty ADP of WR57. That’s a far cry from Johnston’s ADP of WR43. Both Keenan Allen (31) and Williams (29) are aging out of the league and Palmer is just 24-years old. Maybe it’s Palmer (not QJ) who we should be eyeing more carefully for both the rest of this season and beyond.
If we can correctly identify the next Justin Herbert / WR stack in dynasty, before prices inevitably skyrocket, we can gain a significant edge in our leagues.
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Jakobi Meyers - WR, Raiders
Normally when I’m looking for dynasty breakout candidates, I’m not looking for established, veteran WRs who are already producing at a high level.
However, when the dynasty community lags behind, windows of opportunity are available.
Remember when it took Jakobi Meyers until Week 10 of his THIRD season to score his first TD? Good times. Dating back to last season, Meyers has scored eight times in his last nine regular season games and he doesn’t show signs of slowing down anytime soon.
Despite playing across from one of the best WRs of our day (Davante Adams), Meyers continues to demonstrate elite target-earning ability. He’s hit double-digit targets in four of six healthy games and is averaging 9.3 targets per game on the year.
He’s also been lining up in different formations. His slot rate (27%) and outside rate (73%) showcase his ability to win at multiple levels of the field. He’s been on the field for more than 90% of offensive snaps.
Heading into Week 8, his utilization profile ranks right up there with the more #brand name wideouts in the league.
Maybe it’s because he plays with the Raiders who have been trotting out Jimmy G (and Brian Hoyer and Aidan O’Connell) at QB but Meyers’ dynasty ADP (WR40) is criminal.
At 26-years old, Meyers is in his prime and appears to be past the “not-scoring-TDs” portion of his career. Adams (30-years old) is at that critical age cliff and hasn’t looked quite as dominant this season outside of a 42-point outburst back in Week 3. In fact, in the six games Adams and Meyers have played together, Adams leads in total targets by just a 63-56 margin.
Meyers is the ideal “buy-high” candidate. His lack of historical production and “meh” name recognition, coupled with the presence of Adams (and his overall presence on the Raiders) should keep his price palatable. Don’t be afraid to spend up for a premium talent. Meyers is locked into his complimentary role with WR1 upside each week.
Rashid Shaheed - WR, Saints
I’m never quite sold on players who enter the league at an older age and who only have a small sample size to work with. But then again, sometimes I think we make fantasy football harder than it needs to be.
Rashid Shaheed has been quietly productive this season.
New Orleans Saints wide receiver Rashid Shaheed (22) scores a touchdown on punt against Green Bay Packers punter Daniel Whelan (19) in the second quarter during their football game Sunday, September 24, 2023, at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wis.
This comes a year after he joined the Saints as an undrafted free agent and posted a line of 28 / 488 / 2 on 34 targets in 12 games. He actually finished last season with a strong stretch of production. Over his last six games, he averaged over 62 receiving yards per game.
Operating behind Chris Olave and Michael Thomas, Shaheed is the clear No. 3 option at the WR position. However, he’s a downfield threat with just enough speed to take the top off of opposing defenses.
Accounting for over a quarter of the team’s air yards is worth noting, especially when you combine it with his increasing route participation (80%+ in consecutive weeks) and strong aDOT (16.03). This is the type of utilization profile I want to take shots on.
To be clear, this isn’t a move that’s without risk. While Shaheed has already matched his TD total from last year and does have three games with 60+ receiving yards, he also has four games with three or fewer receptions.
Shaheed’s dynasty ADP sits down at WR54. Thomas is clearly not the player he once was and, with Olave set to assume the alpha-role, Shaheed can slide in as a complimentary player for both the Saints and your dynasty squad.
Chris Rodriguez - RB, Commanders
Now here’s a guy you may not be familiar with: rookie RB Chris Rodriguez.
The Commanders selected him in Round 6 out of Kentucky where, over his final three seasons, he averaged:
- 173 rushing attempts
- 1,022 rushing yards
- 9 total TDs
His athletic measurables won’t blow you away but he did post a solid college dominator rating (77th percentile) and college YPC (82nd percentile).
Unfortunately, his strong production didn’t equate to a high ranking in our RB Rookie Model (12th overall). However, he’s starting to earn his way onto the field a bit more.
He barely made an impact until Week 6 when he handled 19% of the rushing attempts (4 for 23) and 11% of the short down and distance snaps. He followed that up by posting a line of 7 for 31 (39% rushing attempts) in Week 7.
There’s minimal doubt that Brian Robinson (RB1) and Antonio Gibson (RB2) are entrenched ahead of him on the depth chart, but it’s worth noting that Gibson is more of a pass-catching specialist than a pure rusher. Rodriquez has actually out-carried Gibson over the last two weeks by a mark of 11-5.
I’m not sure if the Commanders are sure that the RB of their future is on their team. That’s not to say that Robinson hasn’t looked the part, but he’s inefficient. He’s been under 3.2 YPC in four straight games and five times this year. As for Gibson, don’t get me started (big miss).
This is where someone like Rodriquez can carve out just enough of a role to be viable in deeper formats. He’s worth looking into as we know the rate of attrition at the RB position can be tough. Heck, even the Fantasy Life team got in on some Rodriguez excitement last weekend.
While ultimately it didn’t work out, Geoff did note, “Rodriguez had three carries inside 20”. It was fun to have a reason to cheer for a third-string rookie RB who is seeing the field more and more in recent weeks.
When we’re speculating about players like Rodriguez, there’s minimal risk. He carries a dynasty ADP of RB83. As they say, he’s free. You can land him as a throw-in player in a larger deal or you can send a late future rookie pick to get in on the fun.
Cade Otton, TE - Buccaneers
I’m not leaning into the TEs quite as much as this week but I had to find a way to squeeze in one option.
Sophomore TE Cade Otton is quietly putting together a respectable season. He hauled in 42 passes (65 targets) for 391 yards and a pair of scores as a rookie and is averaging 3.5 targets per game this season.
It’s not much but it’s honest work (so I’ve been told).
The appealing piece for me involves taking a step back and looking at his situation from a macro perspective.
Otton is 24 years old and is learning one of the most challenging offensive positions to play. He already demonstrated some success as a rookie and is clearly the TE1 for the Buccaneers. Heading into Week 8, he was running over 80% of the routes and had been over 90% in two of his last three games.
He’s also playing with 30-year-old Mike Evans and 27-year old Chris Godwin. While age doesn’t seem to be impacting Evans (yet), it’s worth noting from a dynasty perspective. It remains to be seen if Baker Mayfield is the QB of the future for the Bucs but he’s been playing well, all things considered.
Otton should continue to develop into an integral part of this offense in the weeks and seasons ahead, regardless of who his fellow pass catchers and/or QB is.
Otton is currently the dynasty TE23 by ADP. Securing cheap depth at a notoriously challenging position is something every dynasty manager should be looking to do at all times.
