Can someone explain to me how bye weeks work? We went from the worst bye week ever (last week) to no bye weeks this week. Make it make sense.
Anyways, throughout the season, I’ll be highlighting players I believe are on the verge of breaking out.
For you dynasty managers, you may want to acquire these players before their value spikes.
Khalil Shakir - WR, Bills
There’s always a balance to strike when it comes to scouring the box scores each weekend. We want to make sure that we don’t get caught chasing an outlier-type performance or one that can be explained away by any number of different variables.
For example, WR Rashid Shaheed hauled in all three of his targets for 153 yards and a score this week. It’s not taking anything away from him, but I think we can all agree that three targets are not going to produce that level of output each week.
That brings me to sophomore WR Khalil Shakir of the Buffalo Bills. In 15 games as a rookie, the fifth-round pick out of Boise State tallied just 10 receptions for 161 yards and a score on 20 targets.
Over his last two games this year, he’s hauled in all 10 of his targets for 127 yards.
Is this legit? Is it sustainable? Let’s take a closer look.
From Weeks 1-6, Shakir topped out at 18% route participation. That’s not good. Then, in Week 7, that number jumped up to 43% route participation and then 72% in Week 8. Why the sudden increase? Well, veteran TE Dawson Knox had been averaging 66% route participation during Weeks 1-6 but then only ran 46% of the route in Week 7.
Knox injured his wrist in Week 6 and ultimately landed on injured reserve. This happened to coincide perfectly with Shakir having his best two-game stretch of his career.
We need to see Shakir continue to do well and earn more opportunities on the field before we plug him into our weekly lineups. Dwain McFarland noted as much in his Week 8 Utilization Report:
Shakir saw season-highs in route participation (43%) and target share (11%) in Week 7. He still has a long way to go before he becomes significant in fantasy, but there is room for someone to step up behind Stefon Diggs.
In dynasty formats, all we need is for the door to crack open a little bit for a player to see a jump in value. In deeper leagues, Shakir is a must-stash for a few reasons: his age (23), his QB (Josh Allen), and his team environment (Bills). Those are reasons enough to take a low risk chance on a young wideout.
Shakir carries a dynasty ADP of WR79. There’s only upside to getting in on a player who checks the boxes that he does.
Demario Douglas - WR, Patriots
Rookie WR Demario Douglas was selected by the Patriots in the sixth-round of the NFL Draft this past spring. The four-year player from Liberty tallied 131 receptions, 1,825 receiving yards, and 12 TDs over his final two collegiate seasons.
His limited production profile and low draft capital did him no favors when it came to our Rookie WR Model. Out of the 27 players we scored, he came in at No. 26. However, not all is lost for Douglas. His 4.44 40-time (81st percentile) and 134.2 burst score (96th percentile) highlight his potential if the Patriots offense can cater to his skillset.
Through the first five weeks of the season, he tallied just 17 targets. However, after missing Week 6, he’s (sorta) turned it on by racking up 13 targets over his last two outings.
His route participation has been a bit erratic through the first half of the season but he’s been over the 76% mark in each of the last two weeks.
Dwain said this about Douglas in his latest Utilization Report:
The 2023 Round 6 NFL Draft pick has been pushing for more playing time since Week 3, and in Week 7, he registered a season-high 76% route participation. His 25% TPRR ranks first on the Patriots, and the team desperately needs targets beyond Kendrick Bourne. Douglas could be a top-two option in New England’s passing attack over the second half of the season.
Douglas followed up his strong Week 7 performance by tying his career-high mark in targets (7) and setting a new career-high mark in receptions (5). His seven targets led the team (Bourne had four).
It seems that Douglas is turning into what the Patriots were hoping Tyquan Thornton would become. The latter was a second-round pick last year and has only appeared in two games this season. Thornton was a healthy scratch in Week 8 and appears unable to consistently break onto the field.
Douglas’ dynasty ADP sits down at WR78 (one spot ahead of Shakir). While it doesn’t feel good buying into the Patriots’ passing game this season, someone else needs to step up and become a consistent contributor. Douglas doesn’t have the pedigree or profile but he’s earning his way onto the field which is all we can ask for right now.
Devin Singletary - RB, Texans
Have you ever talked yourself into a player simply by connecting dots that may or may not even be connected? While I think it’s important to weigh as many variables as we can to paint the most accurate picture possible, sometimes I think we can overcomplicate things and “galaxy brain” our way to decisions that have no bearing.
This somewhat explains how I feel about Devin Singletary.
After spending four years in Buffalo, Singletary signed with the Texans as a free agent this offseason. During his tenure in Buffalo, he finished between RB20 and RB35 in all four seasons. Simply put, he was the perfect RB3/flex option for your lineup.
In every season, he hit the following benchmarks:
- 150 rushing attempts
- 680 rushing yards
- 4.4 yards per attempt
- 40 targets
When he signed with the Texans and their new coaching regime (the regime that did NOT draft fellow RB Dameon Pierce), I talked myself into Singletary being a big offseason winner.
While it hasn’t panned out so far, I think we could be seeing a slight shift in the backfield rotation as we approach the mid portion of the season. Pierce has received double-digit carries in every game this season. However, he has just one rushing score on the season. He’s a volume-dependent back who isn’t finding the endzone.
From Weeks 1-5, Singletary averaged 5.4 rushing attempts per game. Over his last two games (Week 7 bye), he’s averaged 11 rushing attempts per game. It’s a not-so-subtle shift in usage that we shouldn’t totally ignore. Also note how Singletary has the season-long edge in routes-run, long down and distance snaps, and two minute offense.
The LDD Snaps and 2min Snaps are high-value touches, especially for a player with exceptional receiving capability like Singletary. While it hasn’t amounted to a significant increase in fantasy output (yet), I think now is the time to make that adjustment before this small sample size of a trend has the potential to turn into something more potent.
Currently, Singletary carries a dynasty ADP of RB56. That’s far too low given his track record of proven production and health, especially when you compare him to others in his cohort. Check out this list.
I would gladly take Singletary over each and every one of them. He’s a proven asset who is an injury away from a workhorse role on a surprisingly good offense. At just 26-years old, he’s the ideal end-of-bench acquisition you should be making across all your dynasty leagues. With how much attrition there is at the RB position, Singletary offers the ideal blend of price (cheap) and upside (proven) to make him a worthy trade target.
Cedric Tillman - WR, Browns
Let’s wrap up this week by diving deep into a player who won’t likely have value this season but is a worthy end-of-bench or taxi squad stash for next season.
The Browns selected WR Cedric Tillman out of Tennessee in the third-round last spring. He had a productive career for the Volunteers, most notably in 2021 when he tallied 64 receptions for 1,081 yards and 12 TDs. His 16.9 yards per catch that season ranked second in the conference behind first-round pick Jameson Williams and just ahead of another first-round pick in Treylon Burks.
Eliot Crist broke down his dynasty rookie profile and had this to say:
Tillman is not just big, he is fast—with a 79th percentile speed score, Tillman consistently made plays down the field for the Vols. He averaged 11.3 yards per reception this past season, and over his career, he had a 74th-percentile aDOT (15.8) and 29% deep target rate.
Standing at 6’3” / 215 lbs, Tillman has the size that A) most of this rookie class doesn’t and that B) NFL teams tend to covet. The draft capital is encouraging as getting inside Day 2 is a big indicator for future success of wideouts.
The Fantasy Life team was in on Tillman this offseason as well. Back in April, Pete Overzet noted how Lance Zierlein compared him to Michael Pittman and Ian Hartitz tabbed him as one of his 5 Tool WRs. The latter article looks at the following criteria:
- Speed
- Size
- Hands
- Route-running ability
- Playmaking ability
It’s a phenomenal read that looks at prospects in a unique light. Check it out.
These are all great points about Tillman which should make it slightly discouraging that he’s barely seen the field this season. The Browns do have Amari Cooper, Elijah Moore, and David Njoku on the roster so they certainly don’t need him to play a major role but it would still be nice to see him get on the field more.
Our Rookie WR Model also doesn’t love Tillman the way it does so many others in this class. He slots in at No. 12, right behind Rashee Rice and Tank Dell. Tillman’s dynasty ADP is down at WR83 so there’s essentially zero risk in acquiring him at that price point. As mentioned earlier, he’s the ideal target for a taxi squad or end-of-bench spot in deeper dynasty formats.
