Will Shipley Scouting Report and Fantasy Football Outlook

Will Shipley Scouting Report

• Underdog ADP: 201.5 overall, RB61, rookie RB9
• RB Super Model: 28th percentile

Will Shipley has flown a bit under the radar in the pre-draft process because he didn’t participate in drills at the NFL Combine. He did partake in Clemson’s Pro Day and reportedly put up great testing numbers, but we always have to take Pro Day results with a grain of salt as they almost always yield better numbers than the NFL Combine.  

That being said, athleticism isn’t really the concern for Shipley, so I’m not boosting him much based on those results because I was already assuming he would test well. He is currently projected to go early on Day 3 of the NFL Draft, which seems about right to me for a guy that I expect to be a role player at the next level.

Shipley ranks as the RB6 in Dwain McFarland’s RB super model, which suggests he is currently undervalued as the rookie RB9 in Underdog Fantasy drafts. I’ve made it a priority to take Shipley recently as I think he is capable of getting on the field in year one and should get some high-value touches in the passing game. 

Pros and Cons of Will Shipley

Pros

College production

Shipley was a very highly rated recruit and made an impact for Clemson right out of the gate. He averaged 5.0 YPC as a true freshman and never dipped below that mark in any season. In fact, his second year was both his highest volume (210 carries) and most efficient (5.5 YPC) season of his college career. 

The fact that Shipley was able to step in right away and be a major part of the offense for a high-level college program is very encouraging and somewhat rare in a class that features plenty of RBs who had to either wait or transfer before earning a real role. I don’t value breakout age as much at the RB position, but it is still a positive for Shipley’s prospect profile. 

He took a leap in his second year and became the focal point of the offense for an 11-win Clemson squad as he racked up 1,424 scrimmage yards and 15 total TDs. At that point, he looked like one of the top RB prospects in the country heading into his third season. 

Unfortunately, things went downhill in his third year and his numbers declined across the board. He did miss one game due to a concussion, but there wasn’t much else to explain the dip in his final season, so I am viewing that as a small red flag.

Open field ability

Shipley brings a good combination of burst and lateral agility that enables him to make defenders miss and create chunk plays when he has a seam to run through. During the 2022 season, Shipley had 37 carries of 10+ yards, which ranked 16th among all RBs in college football and was 2 more than De’Von Achane and Tyjae Spears (35 each) on a similar number of carries.

Shipley was also a good kick returner, which is something we usually look for in WRs but is a good sign for an RB as well. Not only does it confirm his ability in the open field, it could help his draft capital as well with NFL teams often looking for their backup RBs to play a role on special teams. 

Solid receiver

Shipley is a capable receiving back who turns into a real threat when he gets the ball in space. His career totals of 85 receptions for 602 yards are very strong, and he showed a pretty major jump in his pass-catching abilities in his final two seasons. The only metric that underwhelms a bit is his career 0.97 YPRR, which is decent but not spectacular.

Dec 29, 2023; Jacksonville, FL, USA; Clemson Tigers running back Will Shipley (1) is forced out of bounds by Kentucky Wildcats defensive back Jonquis Hardaway (6) in the fourth quarter during the Gator Bowl at EverBank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

Also worth noting is that Shipley played in a receiver alignment a decent amount of the time in his final season and showed some decent route-running ability. During the 2023 season, he ran 57 routes from the slot or outside, which was 24.3% of his total routes for the year. His quickness and change of direction ability enable him to create separation on quick-breaking routes, and he has the speed to run away from linebackers and safeties if the QB hits him in stride.

While I wouldn’t classify him as an elite receiving back at this point, I do think he can contribute in the passing game right away at the next level and has the potential to be used in a variety of ways if he lands with a creative play caller.

Cons

Contact balance

The biggest red flag in Shipley’s game in my opinion is that he isn’t very good at creating yards after contact or finishing runs with power. I think this will limit the work he gets between the tackles in the NFL and it makes him unlikely to see much goal-line work in my opinion. 

He never ranked highly in yards after contact per attempt, and his final season was his worst in that category as he averaged just 2.9 yards after contact per attempt, which ranked 163rd among qualifying RBs. From a film perspective, there are too many instances where his feet stop moving on contact and he seems willing to go down rather than fight for extra yardage. 

He also did not score well in elusive rating, which relies on a combination of missed tackles forced and yards after contact. His best single-season score was 76.5 in his first year, which still only ranked 110th among qualifying RBs. Perhaps more concerning is the fact that his elusive rating declined each season to the point where he ranked 183rd nationally in his final season. That is the exact opposite of what we want to see when evaluating a prospect.

Limited volume upside

From what I saw on film, Shipley has pretty decent vision when running between the tackles, but his slender frame and lack of power make me think he won’t see a ton of work in that area. He could do well as a change of pace and receiving back, but I don’t ever expect an NFL team to hand him the majority of the carries, even if there are injuries to his backfield running mates. 

True bell-cow RBs are few and far between in today’s NFL, so this isn’t a massive issue, but it is important for understanding what Shipley’s ceiling outcomes actually look like. At Clemson, Shipley maxed out at 15 carries per game in his second season and averaged 14.6 carries per game for his career. He only hit the 20-carry mark five times in 36 collegiate games.

Fantasy Outlook for Will Shipley

I view Will Shipley as a good RB2 in a committee where he can handle the bulk of the receiving work. I don’t see many outcomes where he becomes the lead back for an NFL team, but that doesn’t mean he won’t have fantasy value. His receiving chops should translate well and he is absolutely capable of creating chunk plays with his speed and agility. 

His value on special teams won’t translate to fantasy points, but it makes him more likely to be active on game days and could help boost him over some other middle-round RB prospects on draft day. His best path to fantasy value would be landing in an offense that needs a pass-catching back and has a QB who is willing to check the ball down. If Shipley lands in that kind of situation, he could produce as early as his rookie season. 

Rookie ADPs will move significantly after the NFL Draft, but for now, I think Shipley is a bit undervalued. He profiles as the kind of player who could earn high-value touches in the receiving game while having explosive play potential as a change of pace back working against lighter boxes in the run game. I don’t ever expect him to be a 20-touch per-game player, but he is absolutely capable of carving out a solid role that delivers RB2/3 fantasy production for multiple seasons.