At Fantasy Life, we have season-long projections for all fantasy-relevant players (accessible with a FantasyLife+ subscription), and there are several that stand out to me as offering value in the prop market.

Throughout the offseason, I'll publish a series of articles highlighting these props, which I'll also post in our FREE Fantasy Life Bet Tracker.

In this piece, I want to look at some (11, to be precise) player stats from last year that inform our expectations now. Not every 2023 stat is relevant for 2024 — but I think these stats are.

Jayden Daniels: 1,134 Yards Rushing

As Ian Hartitz noted in his pre-draft scouting report, Daniels was the No. 1 dual-threat QB in the 2019 recruitment class, and last year — in his Heisman Trophy-winning campaign — he led all QBs with 1,134 yards rushing (including sacks) in 12 games.

On top of that, he led all FBS rushers with 8.4 yards per carry.

I don't know if Daniels will be a good NFL QB. But I know he's likely to maintain his running ways as a professional, and that's why we project him as a top-10 fantasy QB this year.

Lamar Jackson: 11% Scramble Rate

Last year Jackson rushed for "only" 51.3 yards per game — his lowest mark since becoming a starter in the second half of 2018.

Even so, he still put up 821 yards rushing in his second MVP campaign, and he led all regular starters with his 11% scramble rate (per our industry-leading Utilization Report).

Despite running less often, Jackson still has immense leg-leveraged upside.

C.J. Stroud: 273.9 Yards Passing Per Game

Stroud had perhaps the greatest rookie passing season of all time in 2023. Not only did he have a league-high 273.9 yards passing per game, but he also had a league-low 1.0% INT rate.

Dec 31, 2023; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) attempts a pass during the third quarter against the Tennessee Titans at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

With the addition of WR Stefon Diggs, retention of OC Bobby Slowik and natural progression he could enjoy as a second-year professional, Stroud looks like a legitimate MVP candidate.

I have him projected for a league-best 4,236.1 passing yards — and I might still be too low.

Christian McCaffrey: 79% Snap Rate

Opportunity is king at RB, and no player at the position had a higher snap rate than McCaffrey's 79% last year.

When you add in his position-best 78% route rate and 19% target share, it's no wonder that he's the consensus fantasy 1.01 this year.

I have McCaffrey projected for a league-high 1,738.0 scrimmage yards.

Bijan Robinson: 96% Two-Minute Snap Rate

Despite accumulating 1,463 scrimmage yards last year, Robinson still disappointed relative to his hype as a rookie.

Even so, he was on the field more than any other NFL RB during the two-minute drill, which indicates his importance to the team and implies the possibility of increased usage this year.

Robinson is the consensus No. 2 RB in fantasy drafts (per the Fantasy Life ADP Tool), and I anticipate he'll live up to expectations.

Derrick Henry: 280 Carries

Sometimes the simplest statistics are best, and it doesn't get simpler than carries, a category Henry has led the league in for each of the past five years (minus his injury-shortened 2021).

Even with "only" 16.5 carries per game last year, Henry still had the fifth 1,000-10 rushing campaign of his career, and now with the Ravens he'll have the opportunity to pile up production alongside the league's reigning MVP in QB Lamar Jackson.

Now 30 years old, Henry will slow down eventually, but we're projecting another 1,000 yards and 10 TDs rushing this season.

Garrett Wilson: 97% Route Rate

Wilson's 2023 was derailed by QB Aaron Rodgers's Achilles injury, but he still led the league with a 97% route rate, and the previous season he flashed with 1,103 yards receiving on his way to winning Offensive Rookie of the Year.

He's worthy of selection at the Rounds 1-2 turn.

Davante Adams: 79% WOPR

WOPR (weighted opportunity rating) measures the overall quality of a player's aerial role in his offense by considering his share of targets and air yards. (You can find the stat and other air yards data in our Fantasy Life Air Yards Tool). 

Dec 10, 2023; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Las Vegas Raiders wide receiver Davante Adams (17) gains yards ahead of Minnesota Vikings safety Jay Ward (20) during the final seconds of the fourth quarter at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports

Despite playing in an offense with poor QB play last year, Adams still amassed 1,144 yards and eight TDs receiving thanks to his league-high 79% WOPR, and I expect him to be similarly involved in the 2024 Raiders offense, which should perform better with QB Gardner Minshew.

Even though he turns 32 years old in December, Adams is highly likely to have his fifth consecutive 1,000-yard season.

Khalil Shakir: 13.6 Yards Per Target

Regression will visit Shakir in 2024. No one can maintain the type of league-leading efficiency he displayed last year.

But WRs Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis are gone, and WRs Keon Coleman and Curtis Samuel have no established connection with QB Josh Allen.

Given that Shakir made the most of his opportunities last season — he led all qualified pass catchers with his 73.3% receiving success rate — he has a chance (even if an outside one) to emerge as Allen's No. 1 WR.

His yards-per-target mark will certainly decline, but Shakir's 2023 efficiency could portend a surge of 2024 opportunities.

Trey McBride: 26% Target Rate 

No TE last year had more targets per route run than McBride, who broke out in the second half of the season with 66-655-3 receiving on 85 targets in 10 games after assuming the starting role in lieu of the injured (and then released) Zach Ertz (quad).

While the team added WR Marvin Harrison in the draft, it subtracted WRs Marquise Brown and Rondale Moore this offseason, so McBride still has an excellent chance to earn targets at an elite rate within the Cardinals offense.

I have him ranked as my No. 1 TE this year. (Check out our new and customizable Fantasy Life Rankings Hub.)

Kyle Pitts: 28% Air Yard Share

Delivered in an Aragorn-like voice.

My brothers, I see in your eyes the same fear that would take the heart of me.

A day may come when the courage of men fails, when we forsake our trust in a position-best 28% share of air yards — but it is not this day.

An hour of wolves and shattered shields, when the glory of a 1,000-yard rookie season comes crashing down — but it is not this day!

This day we draft!

By all that you hold dear on this good earth, I bid you stand — and draft Pitts at his ADP!