In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by Paramount+:
The Chiefs moved to 5-0 last night, but the road to the Super Bowl just got a whole lot harder.
Yesterday, we finally received confirmation that star WR Rashee Rice will indeed miss the rest of the season.
Well, we kind of received confirmation …
Rice will be undergoing surgery this morning to repair his LCL, but the doctors won’t know “for sure” whether he will miss the rest of the season until after the procedure.
Most of the optimism here stems from Rice’s long-term outlook, which is much better than expected since it doesn’t look like it involves any additional ligaments.
Still, let’s be real, fantasy managers. He ain’t walking through that door to save your fantasy team. And just like the Chiefs are making do with Kareem Hunt and JuJu Smith-Schuster, it’s time to move forward with a plan (or at least concepts of a plan).
Fortunately for you, we have a jam-packed newsletter with Utilization nuggets and Week 6 waiver wire targets to help fill that Rice-sized hole in your lineup.
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- Dwain’s Utilization Report: A New RB Committee
- Kendall Valenzuela’s Week 6 Waiver Wire Adds
- Watercooler: Injury Watch
- Ian Hartitz’s Sheesh Report from Week 5
Week 6 UTILIZATION REPORT
Tank Bigsby is forcing a timeshare in Jacksonville.
Bigsby bypassed Travis Etienne in Week 5 for the lead rushing role on the Jaguars, garnering 57% of the rushing attempts. The snap shares (39% vs. 40%) remained close, with Etienne receiving preferential treatment in the passing game with a 44% route participation versus 24% for Bigsby.
Bigsby has averaged 30% of snaps and 46% of the rushing totes in three healthy games. He reached 50% of the rushing attempts in Week 1 as well. The second-year back has handled three of four attempts inside the 5-yard line over the last two games.
Doug Pederson claimed Etienne is still their guy when asked about the backfield split after the game. In Pederson's mind, this is likely a true statement, but here is the thing with coach speak: it is all relative. Etienne probably still has a slight lead in snaps the rest of the way, but make no mistake about it, things have changed in Jacksonville.
While I expect a split backfield the rest of the way, Bigsby is outplaying Etienne, flashing a rare combination of speed and power that could help his role grow as the season progresses. Of course, if Etienne went down, Bigsby would immediately become a borderline RB1.
Hopefully, you grabbed Bigsby last week on the cheap as the No. 1-rated rest-of-season pickup. However, if you didn't, don't be shy—he should be rostered in all medium and larger-sized leagues.
Bigsby UPGRADES to RB4 territory and offers RB1 upside should his role grow or if Etienne suffers an injury. He is a HIGH-PRIORITY waiver wire target.
- Small/Medium league FAAB: 5-10%
- Large league FAAB: 25-30%
- Sicko FAAB: 50%+
Terry McLaurin is a high-upside and limited-downside trade target.
McLaurin ranks 33rd in fantasy points per game (13.1), but his underlying data tells us he might only be scratching the surface. The newly invigorated WR has a 7.5 Utilization Score (16th) through five weeks of action, thanks to a budding connection with Jayden Daniels as the clear-cut No. 1 in Washington. McLaurin is on pace for a career-high 28% target share.
Over the last three games, McLaurin and Daniels have vibed at new levels. Over that period, McLaurin has a whopping 8.6 Utilization Score. However, let's stick with the full-season Utilization Score to create a range of outcomes for the veteran WR based on his comps.
- WR1 finishes: 18%
- High-end WR2 finishes: 30%
- Low-end WR2 finishes: 27%
- High-end WR3 finishes: 24%
Based on this data, we can confidently target McLaurin as a low-end WR2, which leaves us a ton of upside and limited downside. Essentially, his floor is his historical WR3 range. If his utilization over the last three games is a trend and not variance (both are possible), his evaluation would morph into a low-end WR1 (64% of comps).
McLaurin is a BUY-LOW trade target if you can acquire him at the price of a WR3 or low-end WR2.
More Utilization Report Takeaways
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Tank Bigsby Headlines A Hot List of Adds
It felt unprecedented. It seemed like a cruel joke. But, we have all been marked safe from the first bye week of the season AND all the injuries that came along with it. Alright, safe might be a stretch, but at least it's over … right? We didn't have our superstar in Malik Nabers, we had to tread water without Devin Singletary, but at least some of these tight ends scored!
We have another four teams on a bye for Week 6, so things won't get any easier. The Chiefs, Rams, Vikings, and Dolphins (insert joke about Miami being on a bye for the last three weeks here) will be off, so make moves accordingly to keep your fantasy football championship dreams alive.
First, let’s look at a few injuries to keep an eye on.
INJURY ROUNDUP
- Vikings: Aaron Jones (hip)
- Jets: Aaron Rodgers (ankle)
- Texans: Nico Collins (hamstring)
- Dolphins: De'Von Achane (concussion)
As always, the names are in order of priority and all players listed are below 40% rostered. Good luck!
Tank Bigsby, Jaguars (22% rostered)
Remember when we said to stay patient with Tank Bigsby? Congratulations, we saw what Bigsby can really bring to this Jaguars offense on Sunday. He rushed 13 times for 101 yards and 2 touchdowns and also came down with his only target for 28 yards.
Here are the splits between Bigsby and Travis Etienne from Sunday, courtesy of the amazing Dwain McFarland, as mentioned previously:
- Bigsby: 40% snaps, 57% attempts, 24% routes, 3% targets
- Etienne: 39% snaps, 26% attempts, 44% routes, 21% targets
Bigsby was highlighted last week in the waiver wire article and is a must-add now that we've seen a true committee forming. The Jaguars take on the Bears, Patriots, Packers, and Eagles in their next four games.
Tyrone Tracy, Giants (23% rostered)
Running back Devin Singletary was sidelined with a groin injury and the rookie Tyrone Tracy stepped up in his absence. He rushed for 119 yards on 15 carries and finished with a solid 13.4 fantasy points. Tracy also led the team with a 62% snap share, 58% rush share, and 43% route participation rate. Not a bad day!
We will see if Singletary is healthy enough to come back for Week 6, but nonetheless, Tracy should be rostered in deeper formats because of the role he could see if Singletary continues to be banged up during the season. He's a borderline RB2, but let's see what he looks like with another game under his belt. This is more of a stash play than anything else, but Tracy has the upside to unlock fantasy potential down the stretch.
The latest fantasy nuggets, silliness, and NFL gossip from our merry band of football nerds:
🤝 Dwain and Ian run through the Utilization Report and Waiver Wire Targets you need to know.
🚑️ Injury updates: Nico Collins, Travis Etienne, Rashee Rice, Aaron Rodgers, and Evan Engram.
👀 A couple of waiver wire targets: One hot pickup, another sneaky play.
❓Tank Bigsby is gone in your league. The Fantasy Life Waiver Wire Tool can help you find another player.
🤣 Just cooterdodle having fun, telling stories from back in the day.
😍 Matthew talks about his fans. Cool video.
🕹️ Your jokes about Kyler Murray got him a sick endorsement deal. Well played.
✉️ A QB change coming in New England? Sounds like it.
Week 5 Sheesh Report: So Close, Yet So Far …
What follows is a breakdown of all the tilting, near-miss moments from Week 5 that left fantasy managers and fans alike saying, "Sheesh." I’ve watched hours of film and combed play-by-play data to help determine instances when:
Pass catchers could have scored or picked up big yardage with a more accurate pass
Pass catchers did receive an accurate pass that should have resulted in a score or big gain, but the ball was dropped
Ball carriers managed to get all the way to the 1-yard line, but didn’t score
Players scored or picked up big yardage, but the play was nullified by a penalty
Other random stuff that tilted fantasy football managers of all shapes and sizes
Let's kick things off with the one player who dealt with more sheesh than just about anyone in Week 5 …
D'Andre Swift was so close, yet so far away from an even bigger day
The Bears’ RB1 has been balling out over the last two weeks ever since the world largely wrote him off as a bad football player. Overall, Swift racked up 285 total yards and a pair of scores in the Bears' wins over the Rams and Panthers, good for a whopping 49.5 PPR points—the second most of any RB behind only Derrick Henry.
However, Swift's Week 5 boxscore coulda, shoulda, woulda been so much bigger if he had managed to gain just a few more inches on a couple of his runs. Specifically: Swift was stopped at the 1-yard line on three separate occasions on drives that ultimately ended in Roschon Johnson TDs. That doesn't even include the ex-Lions/Eagles RB scoring a TD that was nullified due to an illegal shift penalty; he could have realistically added two additional scores to his stat line with just a bit more luck around the goal line.
Fantasy managers and Bears fans should still be happy with Swift's turnaround after a rather disastrous first three weeks of the season, but that doesn't mean Sunday didn't include quite a bit of sheesh for all parties involved to deal with. Sheesh.
Now for the rest of the week's players who managed to get to the doorstep of the end zone, only to fail to gain those pesky final few inches.
More beyond-the-boxscore notes that made fantasy managers say “Sheesh!”
