Matthew Freedman, Kendall Valenzuela, and Ian Hartitz share their takes on some high-profile free agents before the NFL offseason kicks into high gear.

NFL free agency is about a week away, with players eligible to start signing with teams on March 12 at 4 p.m. ET. The “legal tampering” period begins on March 10. So we thought it would be fun to bring together our experts Matthew Freedman, Kendall Valenzuela, and Ian Hartitz to tackle some of the questions surrounding some of the most fantasy-relevant players like Sam Darnold, Aaron Rodgers, Najee Harris, and Chris Godwin, among others. 

Quarterbacks

What's the best landing spot for Sam Darnold?

MF: Is it too soon to say the Vikings? Joking. I'd love to see Sam Darnold land with the Browns, where he would have ample support with offensive HC Kevin Stefanski (a two-time Coach of the Year), upside pass catchers (WRs Jerry Jeudy and Cedric Tillman, TE David Njoku), and a top-five OL.

Darnold was aided greatly last year by HC Kevin O'Connell, WRs Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, and TE T.J. Hockenson. The Browns don't offer quite as much support, but it's close.

IH: It was the Rams before Sean McVay and Co. decided to make Matthew Stafford a richer man, but now? Yikes:

  • The Raiders probably boast the most firepower out of the ~8 QB-needy squads out there thanks to the presence of Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers. Man, Jakobi is so f*cking good at football.
  • I’d also be at least relatively intrigued by Darnold in Indianapolis or Cleveland considering both present multiple playmakers in the passing game and boast a QB-friendly play-action, vertically-minded scheme that helped make old man Joe Flacco look awfully elite over the past two seasons. 
  • Neither the Giants nor Jets exactly boast the most complete offensive environment in the world, but at least Darnold’s presence would be great news for Malik Nabers or Garrett Wilson, considering the lack of better options elsewhere in both free agency and the draft.

Add it all together … and a return home to the Vikings is absolutely the best option for Darnold (Editor's Note: The Vikings announced that they will not franchise tag Darnold). After all, the soon-to-be 28-year-old veteran just finished as fantasy’s QB9 on a per-game basis while helping Minnesota win its most games since 1998. I get it if Kevin O’Connell is convinced that J.J. McCarthy is simply him; just realize QBs fresh off throwing for 4,319 yards and 35 TDs don’t hit the open market very often.

<a target=

Jan 13, 2025; Glendale, AZ, USA; Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold (14) is pursued by Los Angeles Rams linebacker Jared Verse (8) during an NFC wild card game at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

KV: I truly believe the best landing spot for Sam Darnold is also the Minnesota Vikings, but another option on the table has to be the Las Vegas Raiders. The idea here is that they aren't able to get one of the top two quarterbacks in the NFL Draft (Shedeur Sanders or Cam Ward). There were rumors that they tried to lure Matthew Stafford to Sin City, but that didn't pan out.

I still believe that the Vikings should bring Darnold back just in case J.J. McCarthy gets injured during the season. If they don't do that, then I don't hate him landing with Pete Carroll and the Raiders. I also believe Darnold will be the first quarterback domino to fall during free agency—once he lands somewhere, all the other free agent quarterbacks will fall into place. 

Which Veteran Should NFL Teams Prefer: Aaron Rodgers or Russell Wilson?

MF: If we compare Rodgers and Wilson over the past three seasons, Wilson has actually been the more efficient passer (7.2 adjusted yards per attempt vs. 6.8), and he has certainly been the more productive runner (18.9 rushing yards per game vs. 5.9).

In composite EPA + CPOE, Wilson is No. 27 among all QBs with a 0.071 since 2022 while Rodgers is No. 32 (0.063, per RBs Don't Matter). In passer rating, Wilson has a 92.2; Rodgers, 90.7.

In my gut, I feel as if Rodgers is still the better QB. By the end of last season, I thought Rodgers had rounded into form (7.3 AY/A after the Week 12 bye), whereas I thought Wilson plateaued in his final six games (7.0 AY/A).

But the larger sample favors Wilson, and he'll almost certainly be cheaper for a team to sign. I think most (if not all) NFL teams should prefer Wilson to Rodgers.

IH: Both QBs resemble aging rock bands: Flashes of former superstar ability are still present from time to time, but the same high-end physical ability simply isn’t there despite both signal-callers often playing like they’re still capable of achieving familiar out-of-structure excellence.

This isn’t meant to be an insult to older rock bands, Rodgers, or Wilson: It’s simply a reality of Father Time. That said, even when controlling for this and only looking at situations when the QBs were able to play on time—straight dropbacks from clean pockets—Wilson was the significantly better QB in the year 2024 when it came to creating explosive plays and general per-dropback efficiency.

QB EPA per dropback and explosive play rate

Throw in the reality that Wilson is five years younger, and I believe it’s clear that the artist known as DangeRuss is the superior option to lead an NFL offense in 2025 and beyond.

KV: Part of me wants to believe that Aaron Rodgers is the quarterback NFL teams should prefer, but he comes with so much baggage and drama, which makes Russell Wilson the more appealing option. Wilson will turn 37 in November and Rodgers will be turning 42. Rodgers did show flashes toward the end of the 2024 season, and his overall stats from last year don't look bad. However, he had a 63% completion percentage and ranked near the bottom in EPA per attempt all while having the second-most passing attempts in the NFL. 

While Wilson's mobility has declined over the last few years, we know he still loves a moon ball or two (unlike Rodgers, who seemed more hesitant to take shots downfield). I believe whichever NFL team signs him will get the 2024 first-half version of Wilson, not the final five games where the Steelers averaged just 14.2 points per game. 

Running Backs

Which Free Agent RB (Outside of Aaron Jones) Has the Best Chance of Being Relevant in 2025?

MF: The easy answer for this is probably Najee Harris—more on him later—but I'll go with J.K. Dobbins, who is half a year younger than Harris (both 27 this year) and has been the much more efficient player throughout his career.

  • Dobbins: 5.2 yards per carry | 5.3 yards per touch
  • Harris: 3.9 yards per carry | 4.3 yards per touch

Last year, Dobbins successfully returned from a season-ending Achilles injury he suffered in 2023, and with less usage he notably outproduced Harris on a per-game basis.

  • Dobbins: 81.4 scrimmage yards | 17.9 opportunities
  • Harris: 78.0 scrimmage yards | 18.3 opportunities

In fact, over the past three years Dobbins has been the superior per-game producer.

  • Dobbins: 75.3 scrimmage yards
  • Harris: 74.4 scrimmage yards

There's no getting around the fact that Harris seems far likelier to remain healthy throughout the 2025 season. Dobbins missed all of 2021, half of 2022, all but one game of 2023, and four games in 2024. Compare that to Harris, who has started 17 games for each of the past four years.

But Dobbins is the better player, and when he's on the field I believe he will have an underappreciated chance to outperform Harris in 2025.

IH: Let’s play a game!

  • Player A: 3.9 yards per carry, 2.9 yards after contact per carry, 20.7% missed tackles forced per rush, 5.8% explosive run rate
  • Player B: 3.9 yards per carry, 2.7 yards after contact per rush, 15.1% missed tackles forced per rush, 5% explosive run rate

Player A is Najee Harris from 2021 to 2024 with the Steelers, and Player B is David Montgomery from 2019 to 2022 with the Bears. Note that the latter back’s offensive line actually vastly outproduced the former when looking at rank in yards before contact per carry (Chicago ranked 15th vs. Pittsburgh’s 29th).

Harris might not have the sort of provocative one-hitter quitter home-run speed that gets the people going, but the man has never missed a game while continuously proving to be a handful in one-on-one situations. I’m tired of the public calling this man boring.

The NFL's only RB with 1,000-plus rush yards in each of the past four seasons, Harris has three-down ability (caught 74 passes as a rookie!) and is fresh off a season in which he racked up a 24% missed-tackle rate—good for the eighth-highest mark among all RBs with 150-plus carries. Sign me up for Harris becoming Ben Johnson’s new D-Mont in Chicago.

KV: If Aaron Jones is out of the picture, then it feels like Najee Harris has the next-best chance of being relevant in 2025. We know how consistent he is with 1,000+ rushing yards in the last four seasons, but now it all comes down to team fit. I'm hoping Harris can continue the trend we saw last year—where free agent running backs signed last offseason absolutely went off. 

According to PFF, Harris has 1,097 rushing attempts since he entered the league (2021), which ranks second to only Derrick Henry over that span. Now, when we look a little closer, Harris' career average of 3.9 yards per carry ranks 74th among 83 players with at least 200 carries since 2021 per TruMedia. Teams will know what they are getting with Harris—he's going to be durable but has shown to be inefficient. I like Ian's callout to have Harris join forces with Ben Johnson in Chicago. 

How Many Carries and Scrimmage Yards Will Najee Harris Have This Year?

MF: I know I just said that on a per-game basis I think Dobbins is better than Harris.

That said … Harris has displayed Derrick Henry-like game-to-game durability throughout his career, which has enabled him to have no fewer than 255 carries and 1,205 scrimmage yards in his four-year NFL tenure.

That's not bad.

Let's assume he signs with a team that wants to use him as the leader in a committee.

In that case, it's reasonable to assume he'll get 200 carries and 1,000 scrimmage yards—and that feels like his floor. The ceiling is there for another 250-carry, 1,200-yard season.

And if he's in a good offense, that production could come with double-digit TDs.

IH: Going off my previous point that Harris could have a similar second contract as David Montgomery (with the elephant in the room being that the Bears' offensive line needs to step the f*ck up) … let’s go with 250 carries for 1,150 rushing yards along with 30 receptions for another 250 yards. Throw in 12 trips to the end zone, and you have a pretty, pretty, pretty good year from the 27-year-old talent.

KV: Let's say he lands in a more run-heavy offense with a somewhat decent offensive line? I'll go with 271 carries and 1,426 scrimmage yards. 

Wide Receivers

What Ultimately Happens With Tee Higgins This Year?

MF: I'm sure that Bengals Director of Player Personnel Duke Tobin would like to keep Tee Higgins.

But the Brown family has historically been unwilling to pay a premium for its players.

That means (in my opinion) that the Bengals will not be willing to give Higgins what he wants in order to secure a long-term deal.

At the same time, the Bengals probably won't want to treat Higgins as if he's a top-five WR by paying him $26.2M for 2025 … because let's be honest: He's not a top-five WR.

So that means if the Bengals receive a decent offer to trade him, they'll do it.

Granted, I'm a Mavericks fan, so my perspective right now in the post-Luka Dončić era is probably warped: It's not hard for me to imagine a franchise enraging a fanbase by trading away a beloved player in a potentially suboptimal transaction. 

So I'll say that Higgins won't be on the Bengals this year.

Where will he be? No idea.

But once again he'll finish with around 1,000 yards.

<a target=

Jan 13, 2025; Glendale, AZ, USA; Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold (14) is pursued by Los Angeles Rams linebacker Jared Verse (8) during an NFC wild card game at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

IH: A disgruntled Higgins ultimately plays under the tag and puts up big numbers catching b-e-a-utiful passes from Mr. Joe Burrow. As fun as it would be to project Higgins in New England … or Buffalo ... or Los Angeles ... or Green Bay, letting a 26-year-old talent of his caliber play football somewhere else simply doesn’t seem smart assuming the Bengals are, you know, still in the business of trying to win as many football games as possible.

WRs measuring 6-foot-4, 216 pounds with Higgins's blend of contested-catch goodness and YAC beastliness don't simply fall off trees. The ever-cheap Bengals might not be willing to give Higgins the sort of long-term deal he desires, but it’s tough to see how trading him elsewhere would benefit their 2025 interest.

KV: Tee Higgins is a New England Patriot. I'm so sorry, Bengals fans, but just looking at the history of Cincinnati's organization and how they are unwilling to spend, I see Higgins getting tagged and then receiving an offer they can't refuse from the Patriots. New England is trying to build quickly around its young quarterback Drake Maye, who impressed in 2024. They want to capitalize on the young quarterback window, and it starts with getting him legitimate playmakers like Higgins.

I know there are reports out there that the Patriots are "out" on Higgins, but I'm not buying it quite yet.

Should the Texans Re-Sign Stefon Diggs?

MF: No. If a team is going to sign Diggs, why not just go all the way and sign Antonio Brown?

Diggs turns 32 years old in November. He's coming off probably the worst season of his career (62.0 receiving yards per game, 7.8 yards per target). He's a No. 2 WR who thinks he's still a No. 1 WR … and that makes him exactly the wrong kind of guy to be a No. 2 WR, because he'll want more money than he's probably worth—and even if the Texans pay him that money, he'll be upset when he doesn't get as many targets as he wants.

Oh, and he's coming off a season-ending knee injury that will make his availability for the start of 2025 very uncertain.

The Texans need someone at WR to play alongside Nico Collins, but that guy isn't Diggs. 

IH: I’m down! Diggs should be ready to return to the field during the early portions of the 2025 season. Here's to hoping his torn ACL won't drastically hinder him moving forward, as the longtime stud WR was still quite great at creating separation with the Texans last season.

Diggs' ESPN "Open Score" rating by year:

  • 2024: 83 (No. 7 among qualified WRs)
  • 2023: 69 (No. 19)
  • 2022: 83 (No. 6)
  • 2021: 93 (No. 3)
  • 2020: 84 (No. 5)

Turning 32 next November, it's certainly possible Diggs' best football is in the rear-view mirror; just realize he still looked plenty capable of working as a quality No. 2 option at worst during the first two months of last season. Houston isn’t exactly overflowing with cap space (24th), so getting a potential discount on an aging veteran coming off an injury might be their most realistic path to solidifying a WR room with little else beyond Nico Collins while Tank Dell (knee) recovers.

KV: Stefon Diggs going back to the Texans makes a lot of sense. The Texans were hit hard by injuries in 2024 and not only lost Diggs for the season, but Nico Collins also missed time with a hamstring injury and Tank Dell suffered a dislocated knee as well as a torn ACL, MCL, and LCL in Week 16 against the Chiefs. While head coach DeMeco Ryans has said that Dell is "right on track" in his recovery, it seems very unlikely that he will come back in 2025 at all. 

That leaves a hole that needs to be filled, and letting Diggs go when he already seemed to have a good rapport with quarterback C.J. Stroud seems like it would be a mistake. The NFL Draft is not necessarily loaded with wide receivers this year either, which is even more reason to bring Diggs back.

What Should the Buccaneers Do With Chris Godwin?

MF: I think it's pragmatically and maybe even philosophically wrong for a franchise that wins a Super Bowl to part ways with the stud players from that team—at least while they're still good.

And Godwin was good last year (82.3 receiving yards per game, 9.3 yards per target). 

He's 29 years old and coming off a season-ending ankle dislocation, but it's not the kind of injury expected to sap his athleticism moving forward or prevent him from being ready for the start of the season.

Over the past five years, Godwin has outproduced No. 1 WR Mike Evans on a yards-per-game basis (70.2 vs. 69.5). I'm not saying that Godwin is as important to the Bucs as Evans is … but it's close.

IH: Give him lots of money! After all, Godwin was nothing short of excellent in 2024 before unfortunately dislocating his ankle in Week 7.

Godwin among 84 WRs with 50-plus targets:

  • Yards per route run: 2.36 (No. 10)
  • Targets per route run: 24.6% (No. 19)
  • Passer rating when targeted: 127.5 (No. 6)
  • PFF receiving grade: 85.7 (No. 10)
  • PPF points per game: 19.7 (No. 2)

This team took down both the Lions and Eagles during the regular season and was a wonky snap away from potentially knocking off the Commanders in the Wild Card round. There’s no need to reinvent the wheel this offseason, but bringing back key parties will help with not putting too much on Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans’ respective plates.

If not? I’d LOVE to see Godwin join forces with Matthew Stafford in Los Angeles—he’s exactly the sort of gritty YAC-ster capable of picking up the slack from a (likely) departed Cooper Kupp.

KV: All signs point to the Buccaneers bringing back Chris Godwin, right? I hope so. General manager Jason Licht said in Indianapolis that Godwin "means the world" to the organization and hopes they can reach an agreement on an extension. 

Godwin seemed like he was on his way to a monster 2024 season. He had 50 receptions, 576 yards, and 5 touchdowns in seven games. Baker Mayfield has to be viewed as a legit top-10 fantasy quarterback heading into the 2025 season, and even though they will have another new offensive coordinator, Godwin will continue to thrive in Tampa Bay.  

Tight Ends

Is Zach Ertz Still a Viable Fantasy Option?

MF: That depends on what your definition of "viable" is.

Even if Ertz re-signs with the Commanders, he will now need to deal with the existence of WR Deebo Samuel in the offense.

And if Ertz signs with another team, he's unlikely to have the chemistry he had with QB Jayden Daniels, especially near the end zone, where Ertz enjoyed an outsized influence within the Commanders' offense.

So despite his 2024 renaissance, Ertz will likely not be a reliable fantasy option in 2025.

But he'll probably still have games where he produces because he has a soft matchup, he scores a TD, one of the WRs is injured, etc. During the bye weeks, that will make him streamable.

And I guess that will make him viable-ish. 

<a target=

Jan 18, 2025; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Washington Commanders tight end Zach Ertz (86) celebrates touchdown pass with quarterback Jayden Daniels (5) during the second quarter in a 2025 NFC divisional round game at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: Lon Horwedel-Imagn Images

IH: He sure looked like it in 2024! The reigning TE10 in PPR points per game was last seen catching 11-of-16 targets for 104 yards against the Eagles in the NFC Championship. Terry McLaurin (140 targets including playoffs) was obviously the No. 1 target in Washington last season, but Ertz (116) was easily the second banana ahead of Olamide Zaccheaus (74) and Dyami Brown (58).

Ertz turns 35 in November, but even in his heyday this wasn’t exactly someone known for breaking tackles or racking up a bunch of YAC. Obviously Kliff Kingsbury remains a big fan, and the veteran is on the record saying it’d be a “no-brainer” to return if the opportunity presents itself. Nobody would be signing up to draft Ertz as a top-10 option if back in Washington, but his continued potential to breeze past 80 targets would make him hard to rank too far outside the position’s top 16 players.

KV: Well, he's not retiring so I guess that could make him part of the conversation? But I don't believe he's still a viable fantasy option. The tight end landscape last season was hellish, but Ertz should still rank closer to TE20—especially with a deep rookie class coming to town.