Dwain McFarland breaks down his initial 2025 Rookie WR Rankings and Tiers using his Wide Receiver Super Model:

It is Year 3 of the Rookie Super Model, and with the NFL Draft approaching, we are running the wide receivers through the model. We will rank, tier, and provide a range of outcomes for the rookie prospects.

You can find out how the highly-lauded running back class fared here.

WHAT IS THE WIDE RECEIVER ROOKIE SUPER MODEL?

If you are new to the Rookie Super Model, you can read everything you need to know in the introductory guide, including all of the inputs for each position. If you see a term or stat you aren't familiar with in the player writeups, you can find it all here. If you are a returning Super Model lover, you can find all the changes and upgrades to the model in the same guide.

In summary, the Super Model calculates a rating between 50 and 100 for every prospect based on the data that has mattered the most to their future production in the NFL (i.e., fantasy points). The primary categories for wide receivers are draft capital, production, and film. The model accounts for things like strength of schedule, teammates, and age/class to help normalize the data for a better 1:1 comparison.

This approach allows us to analyze historical ranges of outcomes for similarly graded players, which can be a massive advantage in fantasy football. To best use the model, don't get overly hung up on a player's exact grade—focus more on their tier and range of outcomes. That is how you can identify over- and underpriced assets!

Before we dive into the prospects, let's zoom out and assess the overall strength of this class. To do this, I have broken the prospects into three buckets:

  • Super Model Rating: 90 to 100 (elite prospects)
  • Super Model Rating: 80 to 89 (great prospects)
  • Super Model Rating: 70 to 79 (good prospects)

The edges of the rating ranges aren't absolutes, but you can see how often wide receivers in those ranges have notched a top-6 to top-36 finish within their first three seasons in the table below.

If you have read the running back edition of the Rookie Super Model, you probably noticed that the hit rates and averages for wide receivers aren't as robust. According to NFL Draft capital alone and the Super Model, wide receivers are more difficult to project than running backs or tight ends, creating a wider range of outcomes within the bands.

Now, let's examine the number of elite, great, and good prospects each class has produced since 2018.

  • 2018: 0, 2, 6 (8)
  • 2019: 0, 1, 9 (10)
  • 2020: 0, 6, 7 (13)
  • 2021: 3, 1, 6 (10)
  • 2022: 2, 4, 7 (13)
  • 2023: 0, 4, 7 (11)
  • 2024: 3, 1, 7 (11)
  • 2025: 1, 2, 5 (9)

Within the context of the last eight draft classes, 2025 is on the lower end of the spectrum. It compares most closely with the 2018 class.

2025 Rookie Wide Receiver Rankings

While the 2025 wide receiver class pales compared to last year, we still have several promising prospects. Below, we will build a range of outcomes centered around each prospect's Super Model rating to understand their potential better.

Let's dive in, y'all!

Tier 1: Mid-Range WR2 Prospects

Tetairoa McMillan | Arizona

 

Strengths

Expected to go within the first ten picks of the NFL Draft, McMillan boasts the most substantial draft capital rating in the class. His production rating (88) is first in the class, ranking 13th overall since 2018 for first-round NFL picks.

McMillan—the highest-rated Wildcat recruit ever—made waves early, notching a 1.53 RYPTPA as a true freshman and followed that up with marks of 2.99 and 3.01 in his sophomore and junior campaigns. His age-adjusted RYPTPA (2.65) ranks in the 78th percentile—well ahead of Luther Burden, who has the second-best percentile (64th) in the class.

From a film rating perspective, McMillan is the third-best prospect in the class, with a 6.40 grade on NFL.com. Lance Zierlein sees him as a possession receiver whose best fit might be playing Z or slot. From a college target standpoint, Tetairoa demonstrated an ability to attack all field layers while mostly aligned wide (77%).

Target distribution:

  • Behind line of scrimmage (BLOS): 7% (-7 percentage points vs NCAA average for draft prospects since 2018)
  • Short (0 to 9 yards): 35% (-1)
  • Medium (10 to 19): 33% (+7)
  • Deep (20+): 25% (+3)

Weaknesses

McMillan doesn't have a glaring weakness, but if we want to nitpick, his career-targeted quarterback rating isn't as strong as his RYPTPA. While Drake London and DJ Moore have worked out, some prospects with a similar production dichotomy have struggled.

Thor outlined concerns about McMillan's release package and some struggles creating separation against man coverage. Zierlein echoed similar concerns, noting issues with press coverage and challenging defensive backs in the drive phase of his routes.

Fantasy Outlook

Ten wide receivers have garnered a Super Model rating of 85 or higher since 2018, with 80% delivering a top-24 finish by Year 3.

  • Top-six finishes: 10%
  • Top-12 finishes: 30%
  • Top-24 finishes: 80%
  • Top-36 finishes: 100%

McMillan's closest Super Model comps:

Bottom line: McMillan profiles as a mid-range WR2 with a sturdy floor and low-end WR1 upside. 

Travis Hunter | Colorado

  • Super Model Rating: 88 (14th since 2018)
  • Expected Draft Pick: 3
  • Rookie Age: 22.3
  • Height: 6'0"
  • Weight: 188 lbs
  • Thor's Scouting Report

 

Strengths

Hunter is projected to be a top-three pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, giving him the highest wide receiver draft capital in Super Model history. This raises the question of where he would be drafted if he played solely as a wide receiver.

Using Lance Zierlein's NFL.com grades—strongly correlated with draft capital—and the Super Model's production rating, I approximated a new draft capital rating. Hunter's overall grade from Zierlein is 6.89, and his wide receiver-specific grade is 6.77, the seventh-best since 2018. A grade between 6.7 and 6.9 indicates a Year 1 starter.

Combining this with Hunter's production rating of 87, he compares to receivers with production scores above 84 and grades between 6.7 and 6.9. The average draft spot for this group is 12.7, with a draft capital value of 18.4, giving Hunter a Draft Capital Rating of 86—the second-highest in the class behind McMillan. If the team drafting him prioritizes him as a wide receiver, adjustments can be made post-draft.

Ultimately, even after docking Hunter's draft capital rating, he still notches the 13th-best mark since 2018. His production rating (87) ranks 16th out of 37 Round 1 wide receivers over that span. Hunter performed well in both categories that make up the production rating.

  • Adjusted Career RYPTPA: 60th percentile
  • Career Targeted QB Rating: 83rd percentile (134.5)

Only nine FBS wide receivers in the history of the Super Model have reached those two thresholds; eight were Round 1 NFL Draft selections. It is wild to think that Hunter accomplished that feat while playing full-time defense. 

Hunter has demonstrated the ability to win on the outside (72% snap rate wide) and has the skills to unlock every level of the field. His potential is boundless if he ever focuses 100% on playing wide receiver. If you don't believe the Super Model, read Thor's scouting report on the "touched-by-God athlete" who "has it all."

Weaknesses

Hunter played against lesser competition than most historical high-end WR1 prospects, with a schedule strength in the 30th percentile. However, that is a minor concern, given that the production rating has been adjusted for schedule strength.

The biggest question around Hunter is whether he will be relegated to a niche role on an offense while spending most of his time on defense. That sort of runout could transform Hunter into an unusable fantasy asset early in his career.

Fantasy Outlook

  • Underdog ADP: WR56, Pick 117
  • Rookie Dynasty ADP: WR5, Pick 12

The best ball and rookie dynasty markets are baking in the likelihood that Hunter doesn't play full-time on offense, which is entirely fair. However, the Super Model analysis primarily focuses on Hunter's talent profile and how he could fare if playing wide receiver full time. He could provide massive value if the market's assumptions about Hunter's role are wrong.

Since 2018, 12 wide receivers notched a Super Model rating between 83 and 93. Of those prospects, 67% registered a top-24 fantasy campaign in their first three seasons.

  • Top-six finishes: 8%
  • Top-12 finishes: 25%
  • Top-24 finishes: 67%
  • Top-36 finishes: 83%

Hunter's closest Super Model comps:

Bottom line: Hunter is a boom-bust prospect due to his prowess as a cornerback, but should he ever find himself playing full-time at wide receiver, he would be a mid-range WR2 with WR1 upside.

Tier 2: Borderline WR2 Prospects

Luther Burden | Missouri

  • Super Model Rating: 81 (28th since 2018)
  • Expected Draft Pick: 25 
  • Rookie Age: 21.7
  • Height: 6'0"
  • Weight: 206 lbs

 

Prospect Summary

Burden doesn't offer any hang-your-hat traits like the Tier 1 prospects, but he earns solid ratings across the board. He ranks sixth in the class in production rating (81), second in film rating (84), and third in draft capital rating (77).

As a sophomore, he broke out with an eye-popping 3.20 RYPTPA, helping fuel his 64th percentile career-adjusted RYPTPA—the second-best mark in the class. However, there are some concerns about Burden's production because 32% of his targets came behind the line of scrimmage, and only 35% of his snaps came from a wide alignment.

Zierlein had this to say about the former five-star recruit's utilization in his scouting report: “Missouri exploited Burden's yards-after-catch talent with a barrage of short throws, but NFL teams are much more likely to diversify his usage, activating his complete skill set and big-play potential.”

While Calvin Ridley and Brandon Aiyuk didn't play inside as often as Burden, their target depth distributions were similar.

  • Burden: 9.1 aDOT, 32% BLOS, 21% deep
  • Ridley: 9.8 aDOT, 29% BLOS, 19% deep
  • Aiyuk:10.6 aDOT, 29% BLOS, 22% deep

Ridley and Aiyuk went picks 26 and 25 in their drafts, respectively. Mock drafts have Burden at pick 25.

Fantasy Outlook

  • Underdog ADP: WR39, Pick 73
  • Rookie Dynasty ADP: WR3, Pick 7

There are 19 instances of a Super Model rating between 76 and 86. That group has collected a top-24 finish within three seasons 53% of the time.

  • Top-12 finishes: 16%
  • Top-24 finishes: 53%
  • Top-36 finishes: 63%

Burden's closest Super Model comps:

Bottom line: Burden profiles as a borderline WR2 with a chance to make WR1 noise.

Emeka Egbuka | Ohio State

  • Super Model Rating: 80 (32nd since 2018)
  • Expected Draft Pick: 28
  • Rookie Age: 22.9
  • Height: 6'1"
  • Weight: 202 lbs

 

Prospect Summary

Thanks to strong grades in both production categories, the former top-10 national recruit offers one of the more complete production profiles in the class.

  • Adjusted Career RYPTPA: 59th percentile
  • Career Targeted QB Rating: 71st percentile (123.2)

Despite playing in a loaded program with multiple first-round NFL talents (e.g., Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Marvin Harrison, and Jeremiah Smith), Egbuka still found a way to deliver. As a sophomore, he broke out with a 2.81 RYPTPA, playing with JSN and Harrison.

Egbuka did most of his damage from the slot, with only 25% of his snaps coming out wide. Of all the receivers projected to go in the draft's first three rounds, he has the lowest deep target rate (12%). While his film rating (81) is strong, Zierlein notes that Egbuka "lacks explosiveness to race past the coverage" and his "speed appears just average in the drive phase of the route" in his scouting profile.

Egbuka is best suited early as a Z or slot on a team that uses 11 personnel as its primary grouping. The Super Model likes Egbuka slightly more than his projected NFL Draft Capital.

Fantasy Outlook

  • Underdog ADP: WR44, Pick 78
  • Rookie Dynasty ADP: WR2, Pick 7

Since 2018, 24 prospects have rated between 75 and 85 in the Super Model. Half of them have posted a top-24 campaign in their first three seasons.

  • Top-12 finishes: 16%
  • Top-24 finishes: 50%
  • Top-36 finishes: 58%

Egbuka's closest Super Model comps:

Bottom line: Egbuka is a borderline WR2 with a sliver of WR1 upside, but that likely requires the perfect landing spot.

Matthew Golden | Texas

  • Super Model Rating: 80 (33rd since 2018)
  • Expected Draft Pick: 27
  • Rookie Age: 22.1
  • Height: 5'11"
  • Weight: 191 lbs

Prospect Summary

Since early January, Golden has become a household name. First, the Longhorns took center stage in the College Football Playoff, and then Golden incinerated stopwatches at the NFL Combine with a 4.29 forty-yard dash. According to recent mocks, the transfer from Houston now looks like a late Round 1 NFL Draft selection. In early January, he was a third-rounder.

Golden's production rating (78) is the lowest of any receiver expected to go in the first two rounds. His adjusted career RYPTPA was at the 44th percentile, which hurt his rating. However, he was productive when given opportunities, securing a 67th-percentile QB rating (120.1).

Since 2018, we have seen three first-round NFL Draft selections with an adjusted career RYPTPA between the 35th and 50th percentile and a career-targeted QB rating in the 65th percentile or higher.

Zierlein graded Golden as his No. 3 WR in the class, noting, “Golden's starting-level traits and big leap forward as a go-to playmaker have him primed to become a productive catch-maker with the potential to develop into a WR1 in the future.”

  • Underdog ADP: WR47, Pick 84
  • Rookie Dynasty ADP: WR4, Pick 9

Of the 28 prospects to rate between 74 and 84 in the Super Model, 43% notched a WR2 finish by their third season.

  • Top-12 finishes: 14%
  • Top-24 finishes: 43%
  • Top-36 finishes: 50%

Golden's top Super Model comps:

Now is a great time to note that players with similar draft capital, production, and film ratings primarily drive the comp groups. When there are enough comps to filter another level, size and play style are secondary layers. While McConkey and Golden aren't the same player stylistically, their range of outcomes is similar based on the data that correlates best with future production.

Bottom line: Golden is a borderline WR2, but his profile offers slightly lower hit rates than the rest of Tier 2.

Tier 3: WR4 Prospects with WR2 Upside

Where are the WR3 prospects? Well, that is the great part about the Super Model: we aren't just linearly ranking players!

The drop from an 80 (Matthew Golden) to 73 (Tre Harris) in the Super Model rating is significant, which means we don't have any prospects with strong enough hit rates to qualify as a clear-cut WR3 prospect. Of course, this could change depending on how the draft unfolds.

Tre Harris | Ole Miss

  • Super Model Rating: 73 (57th since 2018)
  • Expected Draft Pick: 50
  • Rookie Age: 23.5
  • Height: 6'2"
  • Weight: 205 lbs

Prospect Summary

Harris is a five-year prospect who started his career with three seasons at Louisiana Tech before playing his final two at Ole Miss. He will be 23.5 years old when the NFL season starts, making him the oldest rookie expected to go inside of the first two rounds. 

He didn't break out until his fourth and fifth seasons, which historically correlates negatively with success at the NFL level. Harris's raw career RYPTPA (2.24) ranks in the 60th percentile, but the model gives more weight to production over the first three seasons, bringing his adjusted career RYPTPA down to the 51st percentile.

While his late breakout is a concern, Harris still notched an 81 production rating even after the adjustment—a mark in line with Burden, who is almost two years younger. His 71st percentile career targeted QB rating (123.4) ranks second behind Hunter for Round 1 and Round 2 draft prospects.

Ultimately, if an NFL team is willing to select Harris in the first two rounds of the draft, we shouldn't worry too much about his age. Here are the prospects who were between the ages of 23 and 24 at the beginning of the next NFL season who were Round 2 picks since 2018:

The point of this exercise isn't to say that older Round 2 prospects are a formula for success. The point is this: we shouldn't rule out prospects just because of their age. The great part is that the model has already accounted for age!

No other prospect in the class notched a higher career targets-per-route-run rate (TPRR) against man coverage. When Harris's signal callers saw man coverage, they dialed his number 37% of the time. That is five percentage points above Burden, the No. 2 prospect in that category.

Harris notched a 6.30 grade in Zierlein's scouting profile, which equates to an eventual plus starter. Zierlein praised Harris for his ability to win over the top and after-the-catch ability but noted a need for growth in route tree diversity, given his heavy diet of hitches and deep routes.

It is worth noting that while Harris feasted on short targets (42%), his medium target rate (26%) was in line with the average for NFL Draft prospects since 2018.

Fantasy Outlook

  • Underdog ADP: WR60, Pick 128
  • Rookie Dynasty ADP: WR6, Pick 15

We have seen 45 prospects earn a Super Model rating between 68 and 78 and 38% of them achieved WR3 status by their third season.

  • Top-12 finishes: 11%
  • Top-24 finishes: 24%
  • Top-36 finishes: 38%

Harris's closest Super Model comps:

Bottom line: Harris is a WR4 with a shot at a WR2 outcome early in his career.

Elic Ayomanor | Stanford

  • Super Model Rating: 72 (70th since 2018)
  • Expected Draft Pick: 52
  • Rookie Age: 22.2
  • Height: 6'2"
  • Weight: 206 lbs

 

Prospect Summary

The Canadian-born receiver did well for himself at the NFL Combine, running a 4.44 40-yard dash. While athletic testing doesn't factor into the WR Rookie Super Model, it can impact draft capital, and Ayomanor's stock is up five picks in mock drafts since the combine.

Ayomanor didn't play his freshman season at Stanford due to injury but was a solid producer in his second and third seasons with RYPTPAs of 2.38 and 2.25. Over those two seasons, he notched a 29% target share. Ayomanor is perhaps best known for a Stanford record-setting 294-yard receiving performance in a double-overtime win against Colorado in 2023. Most notably, 158 yards and two touchdowns came against Travis Hunter, per PFF.

The early declare offers the sixth-strongest adjusted career RYPTPA in the class (64th percentile). However, Ayomanor performed poorly in the career-targeted QB rating, with a 31st-percentile score—the lowest mark (85.7) of any combine invite. It is worth noting that the NFL QB rating for the Stanford signal callers over those two years was below average at 74.2.

The Stanford product earned a 6.19 prospect grade (backup with potential to develop into a starter) from Zierlein. Ayomanor's 77 film rating is the lowest of any WR prospect expected to go in the first two rounds. In a nutshell, he is still a work in progress but possesses the raw ingredients and work ethic that give him a chance to improve.

Ayomanor's non-draft capital model rank (98) is 28 spots lower than his Super Model rank, which includes draft capital. Draft capital is the most critical input in the model, so we don't want to lose sight of that, but Ayomanor rates lower than his peers in production and film, causing the model to see him as more of a Round 3 NFL Draft prospect. He is a projection pick.

Fantasy Outlook

  • Underdog ADP: WR74, Pick 175
  • Rookie Dynasty ADP: WR8, Pick 19

We have seen 45 prospects earn a Super Model rating between 68 and 78, and 38% of them achieved WR3 status by their third season.

  • Top-12 finishes: 11%
  • Top-24 finishes: 24%
  • Top-36 finishes: 38%

Ayomanor's top Super Model comps:

Bottom line: Ayomanor is a WR4 prospect that offers a similar range of outcomes to Tre Harris but might need more runway to acclimate.

Jayden Higgins | Iowa State

  • Super Model Rating: 71 (80th since 2018)
  • Expected Draft Pick: 66
  • Rookie Age: 22.7
  • Height: 6'4"
  • Weight: 214 lbs

 

Prospect Summary

Higgins offers healthier production (80) and film (80) ratings than Ayomanor and is the more NFL-ready prospect. However, his draft capital rating (65) is three points below Ayomanor's.

Higgins is a four-year prospect who played one season at Eastern Kentucky before transferring to Iowa State. He didn't do much damage until his third and fourth seasons, when his RYPTPAs were 2.57 and 2.71, respectively. Despite blossoming a tad late, his adjusted career RYPTPA is still the fifth-best mark in the class at the 62nd percentile. Higgins did his damage battling a projected third-round pick (which the model adjusts for), Jaylin Noel. 

From a targeted quarterback rating standpoint, Higgins was slightly above average at the 51st percentile (104.4). He was equally effective against man and zone coverage, delivering 31% and 27% TPRRs. Burden is the only other prospect in the class to reach 27%-plus in each category.

Higgins is Zierlein's eighth-highest receiver prospect, grading at 6.31 (an eventual plus starter). Zierlein sees Higgins's ball skills as his calling card, citing his tracking and competitive catch-point nature as pluses.

Fantasy Outlook

  • Underdog ADP: WR70, Pick 166
  • Rookie Dynasty ADP: WR7, Pick 19

Of the 50 prospects who delivered a Super Model rating between 66 and 76, almost a third posted a top-36 finish within three years.

  • Top-12 finishes: 12%
  • Top-24 finishes: 24%
  • Top-36 finishes: 34%

Higgins's top Super Model comps:

Bottom line: Higgins is a WR4 prospect with the skills to compete for a role early in the right landing spot. I prefer him over Ayomanor despite coming in slightly below him in the model.

Isaiah Bond | Texas

  • Super Model Rating: 70 (85th since 2018)
  • Expected Draft Pick: 69
  • Rookie Age: 21.5
  • Height: 5'11"
  • Weight: 180 lbs

 

Prospect Summary

Bond attended Alabama for his first two seasons before transferring to Texas for his third and final campaign as a junior. He offers the game-breaking track speed that teams covet (4.39 forty-yard dash) but was never able to break out in a significant way in the production department.

His production rating (70) reflects the high-level programs he played for and his demanding schedule, but he still underperformed in both categories.

  • Adjusted Career RYPTPA: 36th percentile
  • Career Targeted QB Rating: 48th percentile

Zierlein commented on Bond's lack of production in his scouting profile: "Bond played decoy for the betterment of the Texas offense but clearly has the talent to take on a more focused, productive role." He also noted that Bond is a good fit for the NFL game, which could unlock significant growth over his first three years.

Bond is an unadulterated projection pick.

Fantasy Outlook

  • Underdog ADP: WR68, Pick 161
  • Rookie Dynasty ADP: WR10, Pick 25

Since 2018, 56 prospects have scored between 65 and 75 in the Super Model, with 29% securing a top-36 season by Year 3.

  • Top-12 finishes: 11%
  • Top-24 finishes: 20%
  • Top-36 finishes: 29%

Bond's closest Super Model comps:

Bottom line: Bond is a projection pick. He has the traits scouts and teams love, but he hasn't proven that he can maximize them. It could take time, but Bond is a boom/bust WR4 prospect.

Jaylin Noel | Iowa State

  • Super Model Rating: 70 (86th since 2018)
  • Expected Draft Pick: 72
  • Rookie Age: 23.0
  • Height: 5'10"
  • Weight: 194 lbs

 

Prospect Summary

Noel's draft stock is up from 88 to 66 after a tantalizing NFL Combine.

  • 40-Yard Dash: 4.39 seconds (77th percentile since 2018)
  • Vertical Jump: 41.5 inches (81st percentile)
  • Broad Jump: 134 inches (81st percentile)

Noel is another four-year prospect who didn't get things rolling until Year 3 and 4, when his RYPTA marks were 2.49 and 2.91, respectively. His adjusted career RYPTPA fell in the 45th percentile, and his career-targeted QB rating was in the same range at the 48th percentile. On a scale of 50 to 100, that puts you right in the middle with a production rating of 74 in the Super Model.

He was the underneath target (8.3 aDOT) opposite Higgins (13.1) in the Iowa State attack. Noel primarily did his damage from the slot, aligning wide on only 25% of snaps, and was rarely targeted 20-plus yards downfield (16%).

Despite Noel's low targeted QB rating, Zierlein sees him as a "quality run-after-catch talent" who is "primarily a slot receiver but has enough size and speed to kick outside in a pinch." Noel graded as his No. 11 receiver in the class at 6.26.

The Super Model likes Noel slightly more than his draft capital.

Fantasy Outlook

  • Underdog ADP: WR79, Pick 190
  • Rookie Dynasty ADP: WR9, Pick 21

Since 2018, 56 prospects have scored between 65 and 75 in the Super Model, with 29% securing a top-36 season by Year 3.

  • Top-12 finishes: 11%
  • Top-24 finishes: 20%
  • Top-36 finishes: 29%

Noel's closest Super Model comps:

Bottom line: Noel is a WR4 who could push for WR3 status in an offense that primarily uses 11 personnel.

Tier 4: WR5 Prospects

We will move quickly through the final tiers, focusing primarily on the historical range of outcomes based on the Super Model rating.

Since 2018, 86 WR prospects have notched a Super Model score between 60 and 75, with 23% securing a top-36 finish in their first three seasons.

  • Top-12 finishes: 7%
  • Top-24 finishes: 14%
  • Top-36 finishes: 23%

All of the Tier 4 receivers fall into this range. 

Jack Bech | TCU

  • Super Model Rating: 69 (92nd since 2018)
  • Expected Draft Pick: 70
  • Rookie Age: 23.6
  • Height: 6'3"
  • Weight: 214 lbs

 

Prospect Summary

Bech has a strong film rating (81), but his production rating (68) is the lowest of any prospect expected to go in the first three rounds of the NFL Draft.

  • Adjusted Career RYPTPA: 23rd percentile
  • Career Targeted QB Rating: 59th percentile (111.8)
  • Lance Zierlein Grade: 6.34

Fantasy Outlook

  • Underdog ADP: WR82, Pick 199
  • Rookie Dynasty ADP: WR12, Pick 31

Super Model Comps:

Jalen Royals | Utah State

  • Super Model Rating: 68 (99th since 2018)
  • Expected Draft Pick: 78
  • Rookie Age: 22.6
  • Height: 6'2"
  • Weight: 205 lbs

 

Prospect Summary

Royals posted above-average production (76) and film ratings (80), which account for his low program quality (57) and strength of schedule ratings (62). His calling card is his ability to produce when given the opportunity.

  • Adjusted Career RYPTPA: 38th percentile
  • Career Targeted QB Rating: 69th percentile (121.6)
  • Lance Zierlein Grade: 6.31

Fantasy Outlook

  • Underdog ADP: WR77, Pick 183
  • Rookie Dynasty ADP: WR11, Pick 26

Super Model Comps:

Xavier Restrepo | Miami (FL)

  • Super Model Rating: 67 (98th since 2018)
  • Expected Draft Pick: 80
  • Rookie Age: 23.4
  • Height: 5'10"
  • Weight: 209 lbs

 

Prospect Summary

Restrepo lined up outside on only 8% of snaps but wasn't tethered to the line of scrimmage. He saw 29% of his targets come 10 to 19 yards downfield.

  • Adjusted Career RYPTPA: 35th percentile
  • Career Targeted QB Rating: 67th percentile (121.6)
  • Lance Zierlein Grade: 6.10

Fantasy Outlook

  • Underdog ADP: WR75, Pick 180
  • Rookie Dynasty ADP: WR13, Pick 35

Super Model comps:

Savion Williams | TCU

  • Super Model Rating: 66 (104th since 2018)
  • Expected Draft Pick: 85
  • Rookie Age: 22.5
  • Height: 6'4"
  • Weight: 222 lbs

 

Prospect Summary

Williams is a projection prospect. He has film traits that could allow him to develop at the next level, but that never occurred in college, despite playing five seasons.

  • Adjusted Career RYPTPA: 19th percentile
  • Career Targeted QB Rating: 55th percentile (108.4)
  • Lance Zierlein Grade: 6.19

Fantasy Outlook

  • Underdog ADP: WR88, Pick 214
  • Rookie Dynasty ADP: WR14, Pick 35

Super Model Comps:

Tier 5: WR6 Prospects

As we enter Tier 5, the odds of hitting on a significant fantasy performer lessen, but occasionally, we get an outlier.

Since 2018, 138 WR prospects have notched a Super Model score between 55 and 70, with 9% securing a top-36 finish in their first three seasons.

  • Top-12 finishes: 3%
  • Top-24 finishes: 7%
  • Top-36 finishes: 9%

For the rating details on each prospect below and those not listed in this article, check out the Super Model page.

  • Tez Johnson | Oregon (66)
  • Tory Horton | Colorado State (64)
  • Tai Felton | Maryland (63)
  • Kyle Williams | Washington State (62)
  • Pat Bryant | Illinois (62)
  • Ricky White | UNLV (60)