With the NFL Draft closing in, it's time to evaluate the tight end prospects in the Rookie Super Model. We will rank, tier, and provide a range of outcomes for the 2025 rookie class.

To see how other positions fared, you can find those here:

WHAT IS THE TIGHT END ROOKIE SUPER MODEL?

If you are new to the Rookie Super Model, the introductory guide covers all key inputs for each position, including any unfamiliar terms and stats. Returning readers can find updates and improvements in the same guide.

The model assigns prospects a rating between 50 and 100 based on data linked to future NFL fantasy production. For tight ends, key factors include draft capital, production, film, and athleticism. Production is normalized based on strength of schedule, teammates, and age/class to enable more accurate player comparisons.

Rather than fixating on exact grades, focus on tiers and outcome ranges to spot undervalued or overpriced prospects.

Before we dive into the prospects, let's zoom out and assess the overall strength of this class. To do this, I have broken the prospects into three buckets:

  • Super Model Rating: 90 to 100 (~elite)
  • Super Model Rating: 80 to 89 (~great)
  • Super Model Rating: 70 to 79 (~good)

The edges of the rating ranges aren't absolutes, but you can see how often tight ends in those ranges have notched a top-3 to top-12 finish within their first three seasons.

 

Below is a summary of how many elite, great, and good prospects each class produced:

  • 2018: 0, 0, 4 (4)
  • 2019: 0, 2, 1 (3)
  • 2020: 0, 0, 3 (3)
  • 2021: 1, 0, 1 (2)
  • 2022: 0, 0, 2 (2)
  • 2023: 0, 1, 4 (5)
  • 2024: 1, 0, 2 (3)
  • 2025: 0, 2, 2 (4)

The 2023 rookie tight end class is the strongest on record since 2018, with five prospects receiving a Rookie Super Model rating of 70 or higher. The 2018 and 2025 classes rank second with four, but the 2025 class offers two prospects in the great category, while 2018 had zero.

Only three classes have produced three prospects rated 75 or higher. When the Super Model ratings for each class are averaged, 2025 ranks second.

The 2025 running back class receives the fanfare, and rightfully so, considering the superior model hit rates and fantasy point ceilings versus tight ends. However, the tight end class is one of the strongest we have seen in its own right.

2025 ROOKIE TIGHT END RANKINGS

While the top-end rookie running backs and wide receivers should be drafted earlier, the top tight ends deserve consideration after the first and second-tier breaks for those positions. Below, we will further break down the range of outcomes based on each prospect's Super Model rating as we rank and tier the 2025 class.

Let's dive in, y'all!

Tier 1: Mid-Range TE1 Prospects

Colston Loveland | Michigan

  • Super Model Rating: 85 (4 of 166 since 2018)
  • Expected Draft Pick: 17 (based on data from NFL Mock Draft Database)
  • Rookie Age: 21.4 (age when the 2025 NFL season starts)
  • Height: 6'6"
  • Weight: 248 lbs

 

Prospect Summary

As recently as February, mock drafts had Loveland as a low-end Round 1 NFL Draft selection, but his stock has surged toward the middle of the first round at pick 17. When the 2025 NFL season starts, he will only be 21—two years younger than Tyler Warren.

Loveland's 83 production rating is the ninth-highest mark in the Rookie Super Model's history. He scored above the 50th percentile in both production components.

  • Adjusted Career RYPTPA: 68th percentile (7th since 2018)
  • Career Targeted QB Rating: 56th percentile (94.3)

At a position where early breakouts are uncommon, Loveland jammed the transmission in drive as a true sophomore. He posted a 1.80 RYPTPA and followed that up with 2.19 in his final season as a junior. 

Loveland's 18% career target share is on par with Brock Bowers (19%), Sam LaPorta (19%), and Trey McBride (17%). He was a magnet against zone coverage with a 27% TPRR. He was also strong against man, with a 24% TPRR.

When targeted (QB rating), Loveland performed slightly better than the average TE prospect. However, it ranks seventh out of eight Round 1 TEs since 2018. Every other first-rounder reached the 70th percentile or higher, including Warren (79th percentile).

Loveland also boasts the fifth-highest film grade (88) from NFL.com's Lance Zierlein since 2018, who sees him as a "Talented young tight end with the athletic ability and ball skills to become an elite talent as a pass catcher." Zierlein has concerns about Loveland as a blocker, stationing his ceiling at average.

Loveland's career-weighted PFF Run Block Grade (52.1) fell in the 21st percentile. Sam LaPorta (56.1) and Cole Kmet (57.1) overcame those issues to earn full-time roles, but Mike Gesicki (50.5) and Kyle Pitts (51.3) struggled to garner snaps at different times. Zierlein comped Loveland to LaPorta.

Fantasy Outlook

Loveland is going 26 picks after Warren on Underdog. That is too much considering their similar range of outcomes.

Five tight ends have garnered a Rookie Super Model rating between 80 and 100 since 2018, with 80% delivering a top-12 finish by Year 3. 

  • Top-six finishes: 20%
  • Top-nine finishes: 40%
  • Top-12 finishes: 80%

The non-draft-capital TE model provides a larger sample size (seven prospects) and, like the Super Model, offers a signal for future production. Loveland is the fifth-best prospect in that model, and 30% of his peers notched a top-three finish.

Loveland's closest Super Model comps:

Bottom line: Loveland is a mid-range TE1 prospect with high-end TE1 upside. His range of outcomes is almost identical to Warren's but at a better price tag.

Tyler Warren | Penn State

  • Super Model Rating: 83 (5th since 2018)
  • Expected Draft Pick: 10
  • Rookie Age: 23.3
  • Height: 6'6"
  • Weight: 256 lbs

 

Prospect Summary

Warren projects as a top-10 selection, giving him the third-highest draft capital rating (89) since 2018. He is coming off of a monster final season, during which he garnered a 32% target share with a 2.81 RYPTPA. That is the sixth-best single-season RYPTPA (76th percentile) in the history of the Super Model.

The challenge with Warren is that it took him five years to break out for the Nittany Lions. He didn't eclipse a 1.00 RYPTPA until his redshirt senior season, pushing Warren's age-adjusted RYPTPA into the 23rd percentile. Some important context: Warren played with multiple future NFL tight ends at Penn State.

While the Rookie Super Model adjusts for teammate competition, it is based on RYPTPA thresholds. While those tight ends all became NFL Draft picks, only Freiermuth ever posted a RYPTPA of 1.50 or higher, and he only did it in Warren's redshirt season.

That means Warren only gets a slight bump based on teammate competition. After all the adjustments—also including strength of schedule and quarterback play—Warren's adjusted career RYPTPA didn't get much relief, falling in the 30th percentile.

On a much brighter note, Warren was an absolute beast when given his opportunities. His 124.2 career-targeted quarterback rating ranks in the 79th percentile, helping push his production rating to 72.

Lance Zierlein graded Warren (6.77) as his third-highest tight end prospect since 2018, lauding his "best player on the field" energy. Zierlein sees Warren as a player who “has a chance to become one of the best tight ends in the league.”

There is some concern about Warren's ability to work vertically from Zierlein. Per PFF, Warren was targeted 20-plus yards downfield on 7% of his targets—the lowest number for a first-round prospect since 2018.

Warren wasn't a great run blocker, but he was slightly better than Loveland, with a 64.1 (51st percentile) career-weighted PFF Run Block Grade. That could give Warren an early leg up on Loveland in a bid for a full-time role.

Fantasy Outlook

  • Underdog ADP: TE8, Pick 102
  • Rookie Dynasty ADP: TE1, Pick 9

Most NFL Draft analysts and fantasy analysts have Warren above Loveland. The Rookie Super Model slightly prefers Loveland thanks to his earlier breakout, but Warren is in the same tier with the same range of outcomes.

  • Top-six finishes: 0%
  • Top-nine finishes: 33%
  • Top-12 finishes: 67%

Warren's closest Super Model comps:

Bottom line: Warren's production rating is low for a first-rounder, but his draft capital and film ratings are trump cards—he is a mid-range TE1 prospect with high-end TE1 upside.

Tier 2: Borderline TE1 Prospects

Harold Fannin Jr. | Bowling Green

  • Super Model Rating: 77 (9th since 2018)
  • Expected Draft Pick: 70
  • Rookie Age: 21.1
  • Height: 6'3"
  • Weight: 241 lbs

 

Prospect Summary

Warren owns the highest Rookie Super Model production rating ever (100). The 21-year-old was a Year 2 breakout with strong scores in both production rating categories.

  • Adjusted Career RYPTPA: 100th percentile
  • Career Targeted QB Rating: 79th percentile (125.0)

Fannin's record-breaking production rating places him in strong company, considering the five closest prospects: Brock Bowers (96), Michael Mayer (92), Isaiah Likely (90), Hunter Bryant (87), and Trey McBride (86). He was an absolute menace once the ball was in his mits, averaging 8.1 yards after the catch (YAC) for his career.

Fannin earned a 6.21 (eventual average starter) in Zierlein's grading process. He received high marks for his ability to stretch the field, strong hands, and competitiveness after the catch. However, Zierlein sees Fannin as more of a second TE option due to issues as a blocker. Interestingly, Fannin's career PFF Run Block Grade of 69.6 (64th percentile) is one of the better marks in the 2025 class, but I haven't adjusted it for competition and alignment. Fannin rarely played inline (36%).

For the record, too much is probably being made of Fannin's low inline snaps. The college game is changing. Five of eight Round 1 tight ends posted an inline snap rate of 42% or below since 2018. The concerns over his size (6'3" and 241 pounds) are also likely overblown. The average weight of a first-round TE is 249 over that same span.

Zierlein also noted that Fanning needs to prove he can beat press-man coverage. Over his career, Fannin registered a 29% TPRR against man and zone coverages. He is the only tight end in the class to eclipse 25% in both categories.

While the Super Model adjusts to the competition level, Fannin will still have to prove that he can win at the next level. The NFL schedule is a massive step up from the MAC schedule (63 SOS rating) he dominated.

Perhaps the most significant concern for Fannin is his NFL Combine performance. He ran a 4.71 forty-yard dash, giving him a 35th-percentile speed score (97.9). That performance put him in the same range as Harrison Bryant, Isaiah Likely, and Hunter Bryant. Each of those tight ends tallied a production rating of 84 or higher with a speed score rating of 67 or lower.

Fannin could get pigeonholed into a complementary TE2 role in many offenses. Landing on an offense without a strong receiving corps and an innovative playcaller is ideal.

Fantasy Outlook

  • Underdog ADP: TE28, Pick 206
  • Rookie Dynasty ADP: TE3, Pick 30

A Super Model rating between 70 and 85 has occurred 19 times, with 42% of prospects achieving a top-12 campaign by their third season.

  • Top-six finishes: 16%
  • Top-nine finishes: 26%
  • Top-12 finishes: 42%

Fannin's closest Super Model comps:

Bottom line: Fannin comes with significant bust risk, given the limited number of landing spots that might see him as a full-time player. However, his range of outcomes is much closer to Tier 1 than the current best ball and dynasty ADPs suggest.

Tier 3: TE2 Prospects With Slim TE1 Upside

Mason Taylor | LSU

  • Super Model Rating: 73 (17th since 2018)
  • Expected Draft Pick: 55
  • Rookie Age: 21.3
  • Height: 6'5"
  • Weight: 251 lbs

 

Prospect Summary

Since February, Taylor's stock has risen from Round 3 to Round 2 in mock drafts. He is the only LSU TE to record 100-plus receptions and 1,000-plus receiving yards, per Chad Reuter of NFL.com. While those are excellent marks relative to LSU, Taylor's production rating (72) was slightly below average when normalized and compared to a larger pool.

  • Adjusted Career RYPTPA: 32nd percentile
  • Career Targeted QB Rating: 59th percentile (98.0)

Compared to second-round picks with similar production ratings, Taylor's closest comps are Cole Kmet, Mike Gesicki, and Luke Musgrave. Unlike Gesicki and Musgrave, the majority of Taylor's targets were of the short variety, with 62% of his looks coming between 0 and 9 yards from the line of scrimmage. 

The calling card in Taylor's profile is his 81 film rating. The son of Hall of Famer Jason Taylor earned a 6.40 grade (good starter within two years) from Zierlein on NFL.com. Zierlein sees an ascending prospect who "has the ability to become a higher-volume target for a team looking to upgrade at the 'F' tight end spot," earning a comp to Dallas Goedert.

When you add it all up, Taylor is a projection prospect.

Fantasy Outlook

  • Underdog ADP: TE35, Pick 236
  • Rookie Dynasty ADP: TE5, Pick 32

Since 2018, 43 tight ends have registered a Rookie Super Model Rating between 65 and 80, with 21% reaching top-12 status by Year 3. 

  • Top-six finishes: 7%
  • Top-nine finishes: 14%
  • Top-12 finishes: 21%

Taylor's closest Super Model comps:

Bottom line: Taylor could become a low-end TE1 in an offense starved for receiving help, similar to how Kmet and Otton have done for stretches. Still, he must hit Zierlein's projections to unlock a role on teams with a good receiving corps.

Terrance Ferguson | Oregon

  • Super Model Rating: 68 (34th since 2018)
  • Expected Draft Pick: 105
  • Rookie Age: 22.6
  • Height: 6'5"
  • Weight: 247 lbs

 

Prospect Summary

Ferguson's mock draft trends suggest he is a borderline Round 3 NFL Draft pick. He doesn't stand out in a big way in any facet of his game, but he received adequate ratings from the Rookie Super Model across multiple categories.

Ferguson was primarily a short-yardage target, with 58% of his targets coming between 0 and 9 yards. He wasn't a target hog (11% career share) and never enjoyed a breakout RYPTPA season with a career-high of 1.45 as a senior. However, he was good when given the opportunity.

  • Adjusted Career RYPTPA: 36th percentile
  • Career Targeted QB Rating: 77th percentile (121.6)

Zierlein's scouting profile labeled Ferguson as a backup with the potential to develop into a starter, pointing to glaring concerns in the blocking department. Ferguson's career-weighted PFF Run Block Grade (60) was in the 41st percentile.

Fantasy Outlook

  • Underdog ADP: TE42, Pick 240
  • Rookie Dynasty ADP: TE6, Pick 43

We have seen 68 tight ends reach a Super Model rating between 60 and 75, with 11% achieving top-12 status by Year 3.

  • Top-six finishes: 3%
  • Top-nine finishes: 8%
  • Top-12 finishes: 11%

Ferguson's closest Super Model comps:

Bottom line: Ferguson isn't likely to demand a significant workload on a good offense but could carve out underneath targets on a unit without multiple high-end pass catchers.

Elijah Arroyo | Miami

  • Super Model Rating: 68 (40th since 2018)
  • Expected Draft Pick: 65
  • Rookie Age: 22.4
  • Height: 6'5"
  • Weight: 250 lbs

 

Prospect Summary

Arroyo's Rookie Super Model rating (68) relies on incomplete data. He only played nine games over his second and third seasons due to an ACL injury, and he didn't participate in the NFL Combine due to a knee injury suffered at the Senior Bowl. The injury also affects the film rating by reducing his game sample size and creating unknowns about how his progress might have been different if healthy.

His production rating (65) is the lowest of all the 2025 tight ends expected to go within the first three rounds. While he deserves some leeway for his sophomore and junior campaigns, Arroyo's Adjusted Career RYPTPA is extremely low. However, his career-targeted QB rating provides a glimmer of hope.

  • Adjusted Career RYPTPA: 15th percentile
  • Career Targeted QB Rating: 77th percentile (122.2)

While the Rookie Super Model doesn't count games missed against Arroyo (i.e., his receiving yards are divided by team pass attempts in the games he played rather than all games), looking at per-route data on incomplete prospect profiles can be helpful. Arroyo's yards per route run were above average, while his TPRR was below average.

  • Career Yards Per Route Run (YPRR): 54th percentile (1.61)
  • Career Targets Per Route Run (TPRR): 30th percentile (14%)

Arroyo saw 27% of his targets come on throws 20-plus yards downfield—far above the draft prospect average of 9% since 2018. It is a small sample with only 463 career routes, but the Hurricane offers a unique combination of traits with his 10.4 average depth of target (aDOT) and an 8.8 YAC. A weapon that can threaten the seams and add yards after the catch is rare.

Zierlein lauded Arroyo's hands, confidence in attacking the defense's interior, and willingness as a blocker. In Zierlein's evaluation process, Arroyo's grade (6.24) falls within the range of an eventual average starter.

If Arroyo posts a strong speed score at his pro day on 3/24, his Super Model rating will improve prior to the NFL Draft.

Fantasy Outlook

  • Underdog ADP: TE34, Pick 234
  • Rookie Dynasty ADP: TE4, Pick 32

Arroyo's Rookie Super Model rating (68) is the same as Ferguson's, providing the same historical peer hit rates.

  • Top-six finishes: 3%
  • Top-nine finishes: 8%
  • Top-12 finishes: 11% 

Arroyo's closest Super Model comps:

Bottom line: Arroyo's evaluation is a projection due to incomplete data. While his most likely outcome is one of little fantasy relevance, his film rating and second-level production data highlight traits that give him a shot at a top-12 outcome.

Gunnar Helm | Texas

  • Super Model Rating: 66 (46th since 2018)
  • Expected Draft Pick: 90
  • Rookie Age: 22.8
  • Height: 6'5"
  • Weight: 241 lbs

 

Prospect Summary

Like Arroyo, Helm's Super Model rating relies heavily on his film rating. However, unlike Arroyo, we can't cite injuries as the reason he was unable to post meaningful production before his final season. Helm played four seasons at Texas and was near non-existent before posting a 39th-percentile best-season RYPTPA (1.46) as a senior.

The Longhorn TE played with multiple high-end talents: Xavier Worthy, Adonai Mitchell, Ja'Tavion Sanders, Matthew Golden, and Isaiah Bond. But even after adjusting for that, his involvement in the offense wasn't ideal. Still, when he got his opportunities, Helm stood out, notching the class's No. 1 career-targeted QB rating.

  • Career Adjusted RYPTPA: 19th percentile
  • Career Targeted QB Rating: 86th percentile (134.3)

If we strip away Helm's limited early-career playing time, chalk it up to a loaded roster, and focus on per-route data, his production outlook slightly improves.

  • Yards Per Route Run (YPRR): 46th percentile (1.38)
  • Targets Per Route Run (TPRR): 27th percentile (13%)

On Zierlein's prospect grading scale, Helm landed in the "Good backup with the potential to develop into starter" tier with a 6.13 grade. Helm's route running and three-level ability were positives, but Zierlein expressed concerns about free releases that won't happen in the NFL.

Zierlein called out a need for improvement in the blocking department—an area where Helm notched a seventh-percentile career-weighted PFF Run Block Grade (46.3). To be fair, Helm's inline snap rate (71%) was much higher than most tight end prospects. Translation: he was likelier to match up with bigger and stronger athletes. Only 13% of tight end draft prospects have reached an inline snap share of 70% or higher since 2018.

Note: Helm's speed score was excluded due to an ankle sprain that impacted his 40-yard dash (4.84 seconds) at the NFL Combine. Hopefully, he can run at his pro day on 3/25.

Fantasy Outlook

  • Underdog ADP: TE53, Pick 240
  • Rookie Dynasty ADP: TE7, Pick 46

Since 2018, 73 tight ends have secured a Rookie Super Model rating between 58 and 73, with 7% delivering a top-24 finish by Year 3.

  • Top-six finishes: 1%
  • Top-nine finishes: 4%
  • Top-12 finishes: 7%

Helml's closest Super Model comps:

Bottom line: Helm carries a low-probability hit rate but is one of the final tight ends with an outside shot of securing a top-12 finish early in his career.

Tier 4: Low-End TE2 Prospects

The odds of hitting on a significant fantasy performer lesson in Tier 4, but occasionally there are outliers

Of the 89 tight end prospects to rate between 55 and 70 in the Rookie Super Model since 2018, 4% have found their way to a top-12 fantasy finish in their first three years.

  • Top-six finishes: 1%
  • Top-nine finishes: 3%
  • Top-12 finishes: 4%

For the rating details on each prospect below and those not listed in this article, check out the Super Model page.

  • Oronde Gadsden | Syracuse (64): Solid production rating (83)
  • Mitchell Evans | Notre Dame (64): Solid film rating (75)
  • Brant Kuithe | Utah (71): Solid production rating (82) but almost 26 years old
  • Joshua Simon | South Carolina (61): 71st-percentile career-targeted QB rating but almost 25
  • Jake Briningstool | Clemson (61): Decent film rating (72)
  • C.J. Dippre | Alabama (61): Log-jam program but 68th-percentile career-targeted QB rating
  • Luke Lachey | Iowa (61): Attended the university chosen by God to manufacture elite tight ends