Fantasy

3 Big Questions For The Week 16 Slate

by Peter Overzet

5 hours ago

In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by Guillotine Leagues:

So much to cover, and yet so little time.

Week 16 got off to an early start yesterday with the Chiefs predictably handling the Texans and the Ravens beating up on the Steelers.

It was mostly quiet on the fantasy front, though. Derrick Henry dropped 189 scoreless yards, while Tank Dell (6-98-1) and Xavier Worthy (7-65-1) popped off on your bench.

Dell’s day was sadly cut short after a gruesome leg injury on his TD catch. The official report is a dislocated knee cap, but we are still waiting on more details.

On that unfortunate note, here is what you should know before setting your lineup today …

Are my guys playing?! It’s a mostly clean injury report for today. I think the trickiest spot is with Tony Pollard, who didn’t practice all week with an ankle injury. He is still expected to play, though. We have him as a low-end RB2, which sounds right to me. I think you can start Tyjae Spears (RB3/FLEX) if you are in a pinch, too.

The other ones to keep an eye on are Tyreek Hill (wrist) and Zach Ertz (concussion, shoulder), but both sound like they are playing.

What to expect from the new QBs? I don’t want anything to do with Browns pieces today, with the team pretending like Dorian Thompson-Robinson gives them the best chance to win.

On the other hand, I actually think Michael Penix could be an upgrade for this entire Falcons offense. I have no problem starting the usual suspects, including Darnell Mooney and … gulp … Kyle Pitts.

Narrative Szn. We are at the point in the year where incentives and narratives really start to matter. Two I’ll be watching today:

1) Can Trey McBride find the end zone? He’s gone 89 catches without a TD this year and is pacing to make history in all the wrong ways. Now Kyler is on record as wanting to get him one and I think it happens today vs. Carolina.

2) Will Mike Evans stay on pace for 1K? Evans is at 749 yards and will need to average 84-ish yards over the next three weeks to keep his absurd streak alive. He’s going to shred the Cowboys tonight.

Alright, that’s all I got. For more start/sit decisions check out this helpful piece and for some Week 16 DFS advice, read on …

What else is in today’s newsletter?

Week 16 DFS Plays: Rams time
Watercooler: Start-Sit recommendations for Week 16

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Build Around The LA Rams

by James McCool

The Week 16 Sunday slate is here, and, as always, leveraging matchups is critical to crafting effective daily fantasy strategies.

I'm looking at all of them and scouring data to help you make good DFS choices with my Week 16 NFL DFS picks, featuring my top stack, value plays, GPP plays, and fades.

Our NFL DFS Projections and DFS Pick'em Tool are also great resources; if you're interested in college DFS, we have projections here, too.

Top NFL DFS Stack For Week 16

Los Angeles Rams

There are some stacks around the Rams that are appealing. The Bengals have the highest median by far at 56.37 points with a ceiling of 98.65, while the 49ers have basically the same median (50.50) for around $2k less cost. However, I think there are a couple of things that stick out for the Rams that give me more confidence in their range of outcomes than the others.

The first thing is a team total of 25.25, which crosses the mark of 25+ that I look for with QB+2 stacks. This puts them slightly above SF stacks for me when looking at medians and ranges. The next part is that Matthew Stafford and Puka Nacua have been averaging a combined 43 PPR points per game over the last three weeks with Cooper Kupp contributing another 15, giving them a recent performance of 58 PPR points as a stack.

Nacua and Kupp stand for a whopping 65% of the targets and 64% of the air yards, one of the highest two-man target shares in the league.

It’s a very easy stack to feel good about on a team that has plenty to play for in terms of playoff implications without breaking the bank.

Week 16 NFL DFS Value Pick

TE: Brenton Strange

This one is easy. Evan Engram was averaging 85% of the routes and pushed a 25% TPRR, leading to a 25% target share over the last four weeks before he was shut down with an injury. In Week 15 with no Engram, Strange had an 85% route participation, a 25% TPRR, and 28% of the targets, stepping into Engram’s role without a sweat.

Considering Engram was in the $5k range of price before injury, we can say that Strange is somewhere in the area of $1,500 underpriced here. He’s an easy GPP play that should come with modest ownership.

Top NFL DFS GPP Picks For Week 16

QB: Anthony Richardson

I certainly recognize that Richardson is a hell of a volatility play, but I think that he is just too cheap here, and the contest sims, another model over at Paydirt, agree. He shows up in 35% of the winning lineups from the model and has a projected ownership of 17%, meaning he is projected to be about half as highly owned as he deserves. Likewise, in the range of outcomes, he has the highest 4x rate of any QB by far at 18.50% with a median/ceiling combo of 18.29/32.42.

I would hope his ownership would come down, but even at a high mark, he makes for a strong play in most formats.

MORE WEEK 16 DFS PLAYS