In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by Mike's Hard Lemonade:

You’d think it would be the calm before the storm right now.

Preseason football is over. Our first game is still a few days away. Surely things will be tranquil until Week 1 kickoff … right?

Wrong.

A major shakeup in the Kansas City Chiefs backfield unfolded over the past few days and it has pretty significant fantasy ramifications.

Last week, KC signed RB Samaje Perine off the Free Agent heap after he was released by the Denver Broncos.

Then yesterday, it was announced that Clyde Edwards-Helaire will miss at least the first four games of the season after being placed on the reserve/non-football illness list.

We now have a new direct backup to Isiah Pacheco. If something were to happen to Pacheco, Perine would likely lead the backfield in touches.

But this goes beyond just contingent value. Perine is an extremely good pass-catcher and could easily provide Jerick McKinnon-esque production as a regular contributor in passing situations.

There’s no reason to be spooked off Pacheco—he’s going to get as much rushing work as he can handle—but Perine quickly went from an afterthought in the Broncos’ backfield to a must-stash as the No. 2 in the best offense in football.

For more early Week 1 waiver adds, check out Kendall’s piece below…

What else is in today’s newsletter?

  • Kendall Valenzuela’s Week 1 Waiver Wire
  • Watercooler: Injury news
  • Ian Hartitz’s Sheesh Report

Week 1 Waiver Wire Pickups

Congratulations, everyone! You officially made it to Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season. We are finally here, which means most of your fantasy football teams have been drafted. 

You put in the hard work, so take another victory lap and give your roster another admiring glance. I hope you got the quarterback of your dreams, the best value picks out there, and the late-round running back that will surely win your league.

Now, drafting season might be over, but the fun part is just beginning—so, what's next? 

Waivers, baby! It's now time to be a true fantasy manager. We know how the season goes. There will inevitably be injuries, utilization changes, and players who seemingly come out of "nowhere." 

This will be your guide for the 2024 fantasy football season. Every week I will spotlight the biggest waiver wire targets worth claiming, players you should keep on your radar, and also the recommended FAAB. Most importantly, WE WILL NEVER GIVE UP. Injuries happen, but we can manage our way out of anything. It's a fresh start, a new season … so let's get into it.

Samaje Perine, RB - Chiefs (3% rostered on Yahoo)

As Pete alluded to above, this might be the waiver wire pickup of the week, so don't miss out.

The Kansas City Chiefs placed running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire on the reserve/non-football illness list, which means he will miss the first four games of the season (at least).

To me, this means that the Samaje Perine signing was more than just a depth addition. Add in the fact that the Chiefs reportedly tried to sign Josh Jacobs during the offseason and we should conclude that maybe Isiah Pacheco's workload won't get bigger for him this season.

Perine will look to take over the passing-down and third-down role we saw Jerick McKinnon have in 2023. Of course, Pacheco is the team's RB1, but Perine is now a solid backup to target on the waiver wire this week.

Jaleel McLaughlin, RB - Broncos (33% rostered on Yahoo)

So, Javonte Williams wasn't cut (LOL), but that doesn't mean we should stop looking for value in this backfield. Jaleel McLaughlin is the team's No. 2 RB, which gives him a path to relevancy. 

Last season, he averaged 5.4 yards per carry—better than Williams (3.6) and Samaje Perine (4.5). He was also second among running backs in targets per route run, which is a sign that the coaching staff was willing and wanting to get him the ball when on the field.

With Perine out of the picture, Williams could be highlighted in two-minute situations. Even though he is the lead back, there's no guarantee that he takes on the bulk of the work. I really like McLaughlin this season with a bigger role on the horizon. 

Fantasy Life has McLaughlin projected for 525 rushing yards, 241 receiving yards, and five total touchdowns.

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The latest fantasy nuggets, silliness, and NFL gossip from our merry band of football nerds:

📈 Utilization predictions for the 2024 season. Let’s get ahead of the curve.

😆 The 5 stages of a fantasy football draft. Checks out.

🐬 One Miami Dolphin in every draft. Always a good rule.

❌ No tweets from the press box in Brazil?! Wild stuff.

🚑️ An injury worth monitoring. JSN season is here.

🤯 Josh Jacobs almost ended up on what team?? Wild.

⚔️ RB Depth Chart Discussions. What to do with the Steelers, Titans, and Cowboys.

Sheesh Report! : Reliving Fantasy Nightmares?

There will be all sorts of "Sheesh!" moments to break down one week from today. From dropped TDs to nullified scores, to pretty much anything Kadarius Toney does: Fantasy managers are on the verge of dealing with a LOT of incredibly tilting near-miss moments.

But before then: There's still a chance for us to learn from two particularly sheeshy 2024 leaderboards revolving around unrealized air yards and vultured goal-line TDs. After all, what's the point of reliving our fantasy nightmares if we don't learn a little something along the way?

🤦 Unrealized air yards

Air yards measure the distance that any given pass travels (wait for it) through the air. Subtracting yards after the catch from every player’s receiving yardage total before taking the difference with total air yards helps us pinpoint exactly how much opportunity through the air a player failed to come down with for one reason or another.

Sometimes unrealized air yards are more akin to “prayer yards” because the pass wasn’t exactly catchable in the first place, while other times a bad drop is the culprit. Grinding the ol’ film helps with identifying those sorts of situations.

Anyway, here are the top 10 WRs who had the most unrealized air yards last season:

While guys like Adams, Ridley, Wilson, Diggs, and McLaurin indeed have new and (maybe) improved QBs under center ahead of 2024, the rest of the group will once again be riding or dying with the same signal-caller who helped produce all this sheesh last season.

New year, new fantasy outcomes; just realize it'd be a lot cooler if all parties involved could figure things out and, you know, score more fantasy points this season.

🤏 So close, yet so far away

Getting all the way to the one-yard line but failing to score a TD is objectively a sheeshy feeling, particularly when fantasy managers are forced to watch a different player vulture the TD on the very next play (looking at you, Taysom Hill).

Here are the players with at least five such instances in 2023 of getting stopped at the one-yard line and then failing to score a TD on that same drive:

These totals include occurrences of a player getting stopped just short of the goal line multiple times on the same drive, which explains why a certain ex-Eagles RB didn't lead the pack.

Of course, Saquon Barkley is the new man in charge of pushing Jalen Hurts' tush when the Eagles get to the opponent's one-yard line. Sadly (for fantasy managers), this job has resulted in Eagles RBs ranking 30th in carries from the one (10) over the past three seasons, but intriguingly, they rank first in rush attempts from their opponent's 2-5-yard lines during this span.

Barkley should get at least one opportunity to score when the Eagles get around the goal line—he just better take advantage of it.