A Nasty Injury Roundup For Fantasy Football to End Week 15
In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by Bleacher Nation Fantasy:
While Week 16 gave us incredible highs in the form of monster WR outings, it also brought us a laundry list of injuries that threaten to shake up both the fantasy and NFL playoffs.
Here’s everything to monitor as we head into Week 16 …
David Montgomery is done for the year. He tore his MCL in the Lions’ loss to the Bills yesterday and will undergo season-ending surgery to repair his knee. This is a brutal blow for Detroit (and Monty managers). If you are looking for a silver lining, Jahmyr Gibbs is about to go full supernova down the stretch.
Patrick Mahomes is week-to-week with a high-ankle sprain. It’s been a while since we’ve been able to debate the severity of an ankle sprain, but Kansas City assures us this is of “the mild” variety. KC has two short weeks on tap—Saturday vs. the Texans and then Christmas Day vs. the Steelers—and 1-seed implications on the line, so this will be something to monitor closely. I’m guessing Carson Wentz gets the nod for Week 16.
Misc. injury tidbits. The Saints’ RB situation is up in the air with Alvin Kamara dealing with a groin abductor injury. Keep KenDre Miller on speed dial … Jaylen Waddle is day-to-day with a knee injury … Geno Smith’s status is still up in the air, but early signs were positive … Xavier Legette (groin) is likely to miss Week 16.
For more info to get you fully prepared for Week 16, read on …
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- Dwain’s Utilization Report: Two RBs Continue To Surge
- Kendall Valenzuela’s Week 16 Waiver Wire Adds
- Watercooler: Diontae MIA
- Ian Hartitz’s Sheesh Report from Week 15
Week 16 Utilization Report
Welcome to the Utilization Report, where Dwain McFarland highlights his top fantasy football takeaways heading into Week 16.
Chase Brown has the most potent role in fantasy football.
Chase Brown stands at the top of the Utilization Score mountain since the Zack Moss injury. Over his last six games, he has a 9.6 Utilization Score, averaging 23.3 points per game—second behind Saquon Barkley.
Khalil Herbert has yet to dent Brown's workload, leaving the second-year back in complete control in Week 15 with a 92% snap share. Brown has reached a 79%-plus snap share in six straight games and surpassed a 9.0 Utilization Score in five of six starts. He has no weakness in his game, dominating the carries inside the 5-yard line (100%) and the two-minute offense (93%).
Brown represents one of the true rarities in fantasy football—an every-down workhorse who also resides on a high-quality offense. Brown's comps have averaged 20 points per game, with 85% notching a top-six finish.
Brown is a high-end RB1 regardless of matchup.
Rico Dowdle has entered every-down RB territory.
Over the last three games, Rico Dowdle has led the Cowboys backfield in snaps (73%), rushing attempts (68%) and route participation (63%). Over that span, he has an 8.1 Utilization Score with 17.1 points per game.
While Dowdle has been the No. 1 in Big D for multiple weeks, recent trends point toward even more upside. First, he has handled 100% of the rushing attempts inside the 5-yard line and 59% of the short-yardage snaps (SDD) over the last three games. Second, he has wrestled the two-minute offense away from Hunter Luepke with 63% and 100% snap shares over the last two games.
Those three developments move him from early-down workhorse territory into the every-down-back conversation. Without a talented challenger, it is hard to imagine Dowdle losing his grip on this dominant role—and the comps are impressive.
Average fantasy points: 15.6
- RB1 to 6 finishes: 8%
- RB7 to 12 finishes: 50%
- RB13 to 18 finishes: 33%
- RB19 to 24 finishes: 8%
Most of Dowdle's peers (58%) were RB1s, and those who missed were most commonly high-end RB2s (33%).
Dowdle UPGRADES to borderline RB1 territory.
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Week 16 Waiver Wire Pickups
Aaron Rodgers, Jets (35% rostered)
We are dealing with injuries to Patrick Mahomes and Geno Smith, and we could see different starting quarterbacks in Week 16 for the Titans, Browns and Saints. So it's ROUGH out there. Aaron Rodgers locked down 30.06 fantasy points against the Jaguars, which were his most since Week 11 of 2021! The Jets take on the Rams this week, which is still favorable, but we will have to pull back expectations for another 30-point performance.
Kendre Miller, Saints 11% rostered)
Alvin Kamara suffered a groin injury on Sunday against the Commanders and his status for Week 16 is still unknown. We've talked before about teams shutting down some of their older, veteran players and with the Saints essentially playing for pride it might be that time for Kamara to sit. With a coaching staff that does not hate him, KenDre Miller has carried 19 times for 78 yards and one score over the past two weeks.
AROUND THE WATERCOOLER
The latest fantasy nuggets, silliness, and NFL gossip from our merry band of football nerds:
💪 Is BrIan Thomas Jr. this year’s best rookie WR? Ian, Chris, and Charch discuss.
🤷 Diontae Johnson will miss another week. For “reasons.”
😶Oh no, the Patriots coaches are in trouble … when the owners are mouthing this.
🙏 Pray that Stefanski comes to his senses. We need Jameis in fantasy land.
🤞 Need reinforcements for the fantasy playoffs semi-finals? The Fantasy Life Waiver Wire Tool has you covered.
🏀 This 6th man will give your team all-around production. Adam Ronis drops the Fantasy Basketball Waiver Wire adds.
Week 15 Sheesh Report
by Ian Hartitz
Terry McLaurin was so close to an absolutely MASSIVE game
This season has generally been an awesome first chapter to the Terry McLaurin and Jayden Daniels partnership. The longtime stud receiver has already scored a career-high 11 TDs and should rack up his fifth consecutive season with 1,000-plus yards sometime next Sunday.
Week 15 wasn't exactly an exception to the good times, as McLaurin caught 7 of 10 targets for 73 yards and a pair of TDs. But here's the catch: The artist known as Scary Terry quite literally could have added an extra 100 yards and two additional TDs to the boxscore with a bit better deep-ball chemistry with his QB.
Note that the 62- and 54-yard misses both occurred on the same drive. Either way: Sheesh.
While McLaurin stood out as one of week's biggest examples of a pass catcher leaving plenty of yards on the field, he was hardly the only one.
NULLIFIED SCORES & MORE TILTING MOMENTS THAT LEFT YOU SAYING, "SHEESH!"
Welcome back! First off, for those who answered Ja’Marr Chase to yesterday’s trivia quiz, YOU WERE RIGHT! In Week 16 of 2021, Chase caught 11 balls for 266 yards and 3 TDs to win plenty fantasy championships. Will he do it again in 2024? Now let’s see if you can go 2 for 2. Today’s question has several answers. Here goes (all the answers will be included in tomorrow’s newsletter):
Q: Aaron Rodgers eclipsed 3,000 passing yards and 20 passing touchdowns on Sunday for the 14th time in his career. Can you name the only five quarterbacks with more seasons of at least 3,000 yards and 20 TDs?
