In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by Homage:

On a recent episode of the Fantasy Life show, Ian, Dwain, and Chris debated whether Saquon Barkley would be the 1.01 if we drafted today.

What makes this discussion particularly fun is that it doesn’t have to be a hypothetical.

Not only do we have our very own rest-of-season ranks thanks to Waz, but Underdog recently launched an in-season tournament and we can see where drafters are actually selecting these guys after three weeks of action.

Here are a few ADPs that stood out to me:

  • Saquon Barkley (ADP: 2) - He’s behind only Justin Jefferson right now and that’s more of a positional scarcity thing than anything else (Waz has him as the 1.01). I’m extremely underinvested in Barkley this year and it feels bad, man.
     
  • Rashee Rice (ADP: 7) - Travis Kelce has plummeted all the way to pick 69 while drafters rightfully chase the insane floor/ceiling combo that Rice provides.
     
  • Jayden Daniels (ADP: 60) - Daniels is up 40+ spots from his August ADP and is now going as the QB6. That’s too low still, IMO. He should be going in the 4th round right next to Kyler Murray.
     
  • Jordan Mason (ADP: 61)—This ADP is rapidly adjusting (it opened at 93), but Mason is by far the most mispriced player on the board right now. He should be a late-second-round pick, right around Derrick Henry and James Cook.
     
  • Bucky Irving (ADP: 91)—The flippening we imagined earlier this week has already taken place on Underdog with Bucky going ahead of Rachaad White (ADP: 103).
     
  • Mark Andrews (ADP: 123)—Andrews has slid 70+ spots from his preseason ADP and I’m still not sure it’s enough.

Let’s revisit some of these again in another three weeks …

What else is in today’s newsletter?

  1. Dwain’s Week 4 Rankings: A Riser, a Faller, and a Sicko Start …
  2. Watercooler: Injury updates

Zack Moss UP, Garrett Wilson DOWN in Week 4 Rankings Update from Dwain McFarland

It is time to set our fantasy lineups and with that in mind, let's follow the data to analyze some of the biggest Week 4 fantasy football rankings risers and fallers to help you make those critical start-sit decisions.

📈 Rankings Riser

Zack Moss | RB | Bengals

Moss is becoming a mainstay in this column thanks to operating as the Bengals' clear-cut No. 1 back. What many thought would be a committee with Chase Brown has been anything but, with Moss handling 65%, 82%, and 77% of the snaps. Moss has dominated high-leverage opportunities with 80% of the carries inside the five-yard line and an 87% snap rate in the two-minute offense. His 7.7 Utilization Score is in high-end RB2 territory based on historical comps.

Last weekend, Moss came through with 20.7 points in a solid matchup against the Commanders. Now he faces a Panthers defense licensing 151 yards per contest–the fifth-most in the NFL. Based on Vegas oddsmakers, the Bengals claim the No. 2 team total (26.8), which could mean multiple TD opportunities for Moss.

Moss is a SMASH PLAY as a top-25 flex option in Week 4.

📉 Rankings Faller

Garrett Wilson | WR | Jets

This downgrade might feel like a cruel joke, but it isn't. Wilson was also a buy-low in the Utilization Report this week because his underlying data (29% target share and 42% air yards share) tells us he has a WR1 talent profile. However, the Broncos have put the clamps on the No. 1 outside WR in all three games.

Pickens was much closer to a bigger day, but some sheesh plays got in the way. Wilson still has the talent to win in this matchup, but Aaron Rodgers could opt to target better matchups on the inside against the Broncos linebackers and safeties.

Wilson DOWNGRADES to mid-range WR2 status.

👀 Sicko Start

I want to throw in a few names for all my fellow fantasy managers that are in a SICKO league. If you are in a 12-team league with three starting WRs and two flexes, these are for you! Or you are in a more typical setup but need a name to help get you through injuries; these are for you!

Darnell Mooney | WR | Falcons

Drake London looks like the WR1 for Atlanta, but Mooney is challenging Kyle Pitts to be the No. 2 option in the passing attack. The Falcons' WR free-agent acquisition has a 23% target share–well ahead of Pitts (15%)–-and has reached a Utilization Score of 7.0 in his last two games. The Saints have endorsed the fifth-most receiving yards per game (257), and the Falcons have a top-10 team total (22.5).

Mooney UPGRADES to low-end WR3 status and offers WR2 upside.

More Risers and Fallers

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The latest fantasy nuggets, silliness, and NFL gossip from our merry band of football nerds:

⚔️ Week 4 kicks off with another division rivalry tonight … projections for the game.

🚑️ A trio of important Eagles didn’t practice. A situation to monitor.

💰️ The best prop bets for tonight’s Giants/Cowboys game. We got you covered.

🧀 Aaron Jones is pure class. A message for Green Bay.

🤯 A wild Patrick Mahomes stat. This isn’t great.

🤔 Is Bill Belichick already prepping a return to the NFL? Seems like it.

😆 Breece Hall asks Aaron Rodgers a question. Funny exchange.