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A New Tier 1 Tight End

by Peter Overzet

2 months ago

In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by Paramount+:

We all knew Brock Bowers was a special prospect, but I don’t think anyone expected him to lead all tight ends in targets, receptions, and receiving yards after just two weeks.

He’s obviously a must-start the rest of the way, but I’m willing to push the hot takes further than that.

There’s only one other tight end I’d take over him rest of season and that’s Trey McBride. Although that might not even be a hot take? In our early Week 3 rankings, he’s currently tied as the consensus TE1 with McBride.

The thing that is so encouraging about Bowers is that this isn’t just boxscore chasing. He hasn’t even scored a TD yet! This is all about utilization and he has the highest Utilization Score of any TE (8.9/10).

What’s really scary is that he’s done this with only 71% route participation. What happens when we get him on the field for every single play?

That’s a rhetorical question. I’ll tell ya’ what happens …

He takes our fantasy teams to Valhalla.

What else is in today’s newsletter?

Freedman’s Favorites: Ride or die szn …
Ian’s Manifesto: Are Derek Carr and Sam Darnold … good?
Watercooler: Early-season busts

Freedman’s Favorites: Week 3

Here are a couple of Matthew Freedman's favorite fantasy plays for Week 3. Check out his full articles and rankings for more.

🌟 Kyler Murray (Cardinals) vs. Lions

Cardinals: +3
O/U: 52.5
TT: 24.75

I have a few simple life rules, one of which is this: If Baker Mayfield can do it, then Kyler can do it. And that's nothing against Baker … but let's be real: Kyler is the better player.

If Baker can lead Oklahoma to a 12-2 record and win the Heisman Trophy in 2017, then Kyler can in 2018. If Baker can go No. 1 in the NFL Draft in 2018, then Kyler can in 2019. If Mayfield can have an efficient 8.4 AY/A and 5-34-1 rushing against the Lions in Week 2, then Kyler can in Week 3.

In the words of Ron Burgundy, "It's science."

I love this matchup for Murray against the Lions, who are yet to cover themselves in glory: In Week 1, they yielded 317 yards passing to Matthew Stafford, last week they got Bakered in a home loss, and last season they were No. 3 in most fantasy points allowed to QBs (20.0).

With a rebuilt secondary—not one of their starting corners was with the team last year, and Brian Branch has shifted from slot to safety—the Lions could struggle against the pass for at least another week, and Murray has looked great as a thrower through two weeks with 428 yards and 4 TDs passing to no INTs with a 73.1% completion rate and 9.8 AY/A.

Matthew Berry's 2024 Ride or Die, Murray is dealing.

And he looks all the way back as a runner with 10-116-0 rushing. It appears the season-ending knee injury he suffered in 2022 is not slowing him down.

I have a bet on Cardinals +4.5 this week in our free Fantasy Life Bet Tracker, and Murray as an underdog is 26-15-2 ATS (21.7% ROI) and 17-24-1 ML (20.0% ROI, per Action Network).

And do I also have a +10000 ticket on the Cardinals to win the No. 1 seed in the NFC? You bet I do.

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🌟 Brock Bowers (Raiders) vs. Panthers

Raiders: -5.5
O/U: 40.5
TT: 23

Alright, it's time for me to give Bowers some flowers.

Entering the season, I was skeptical about what we'd see out of him as a rookie, especially since he needs to compete for playing time and targets with second-year TE Michael Mayer.

Although Bowers doesn't have an elite route rate (71%), his overall usage has bestowed upon him a position-best 8.9 Utilization Score, which he has leveraged into an impressive 15-156-0 receiving on 17 targets.

The Panthers last year were No. 29 in defensive pass DVOA against TEs (19.7%). Whichever defender they put on Bowers on any given play, he will likely have an edge.

More of Freedman’s Favorite QBs for Week 3

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Fantasy Football Storylines, Trends, and Bold Predictions to Watch in Week 3

by Ian Hartitz

1. Are Derek Carr and Sam Darnold ACTUALLY good now?

Passing production might generally be down across the league to start the season, but don't tell that to Derek Carr or Sam Darnold, who have both arguably played the best football of their respective careers through two weeks of 2024.

In Carr's case: We're literally talking about the league's most efficient signal caller at the moment based on pretty much any meaningful advanced metric out there:

Carr among 32 QBs with 30-plus dropbacks this season:

EPA per dropback: +0.556 (No. 1)
Completion percentage over expected: +9.5% (No. 1)
PFF pass grade: 92.0 (No. 1)
Passer rating: 142.4 (No. 1)
Yards per attempt: 11.4 (No. 1)

Hell, the artist formerly known as Captain Checkdown has even become one of the most downfield-oriented gunslingers in the league. Not only does Carr's 9.2-yard average target depth rank sixth, but his 2.3% checkdown rate is the lowest mark in the NFL and a far cry from his annual top-eight numbers.

And yet, the fantasy QB2 hasn't even reached his true ceiling just yet considering the Saints' 30-3 and 35-16 halftime leads haven't forced the offense to keep their collective foot on the gas. Overall, the Saints' league-low 37.3% pass-play rate is a full 5.6% lower than the next-most run-heavy offense (Chargers) and reflects the reality that things could really get grooving inside this New Orleans passing game should a worthy opponent emerge—something that certainly seems to be on the table for next Sunday's matchup against the Eagles' middling secondary.

And then there's Darnold, who continues to make a few throws per week that remind everyone why he was the 2018 NFL Draft's No. 3 overall pick once upon a time. Sure, the 97-yard BOMB to Justin Jefferson was cool and all, but how about this clutch back-shoulder dime down the seam to Jalen Nailor without any of the Vikings' top-three pass catchers on the field?

Head coach Kevin O'Connell deserves a lot of credit for getting a lot of production out of yet another QB who was largely left for dead by the rest of the league. Clearly having the best WR alive also helps; just realize Darnold has really cooked when the play has unfolded as the Vikings planned. Overall, 56% of Darnold's dropbacks have resulted in a pass attempt to his first read (13th), and he's responded with a league-best 11 yards per attempt on those throws. On throws that have involved getting to his second read or check down? Darnold ranks just 14th in yards per attempt (7.55) and his 3.45-yard dropoff relative to first-read pass attempts is the fifth-highest mark in the league.

Up next for Darnold and Co. is a date with Will Anderson and the Texans, who made life absolutely miserable for Caleb Williams last Sunday night. It'll be tough to raise the 27-year-old veteran too far up the ranks should Jefferson (quad) wind up sitting out; just realize the early returns on the 2024 Darnold experience have been far better than anything else we've seen out of him during the previous six seasons.

Wouldn't it be funny if ANOTHER veteran QB largely considered to be a goner suddenly turned the tides of their entire organization?

Nine More Week 3 Storylines