A Priority Running Back to Add in Fantasy Football
In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by Mike's Hard Lemonade:
Within fantasy football circles, Josh Allen’s incredible TD pass “to himself” on SNF has been overshadowed by a truly horrifying stat:
Allen has more receiving TDs this year than Trey McBride (h/t).
McBride hasn’t been a bum, either. He is third at the TE position in catches on the year with 73. He has the second-best Utilization Score behind only Brock Bowers.
One of these days he’ll fall into the end zone. Until then, here are a few more disturbing stats I saw yesterday …
5th: That’s where Kyle Pitts sits on his own team for targets this season (h/t). I can live with Drake London and Bijan Robinson ahead of him. I can even stomach Darnell Mooney. But Ray Ray McCloud III is too much to bear.
982: That’s how many rushing yards Saquon Barkley has in the second half of games this year. To put that in perspective, the entire Giants RB room has combined for 993 yards across all halves.
8: That’s how many FGs Justin Tucker has missed this year, which marks a career high. He has been a shell of his former self in 2024.
1: That’s the number of RBs the Niners have left now that both CMC and Jordan Mason are done for the year.
Read on for a must-add back in San Francisco …
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- Dwain’s Utilization Report: This offense will win fantasy championships
- Kendall Valenzuela’s Week 14 Waiver Wire Adds
- Watercooler: Saquon love
- Ian Hartitz’s Sheesh Report from Week 13
Stat of the Day 12/3: Isaac Guerendo is available in 98% of fantasy leagues
We’re officially getting down to the nitty-gritty. Week 14 is the final week of the regular season for most fantasy leagues, with the playoffs starting the following week. Ultimately, it’s your final chance to shore up your rosters before the games really start to count.
That makes adding Guerendo a must for your fantasy rosters. Hopefully, you’ve kept some FAAB in the chamber because Guerendo has the chance to be a league winner. He entered Week 13 as the No. 3 running back on the 49ers’ depth chart, but both Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason went down with injuries in that contest. Mason has already been placed on IR, while McCaffrey joined him after suffering a “potentially season-ending” PCL injury. Given that he’s already missed time this season—and that the 49ers appear unlikely to make the playoffs—they could choose to exercise caution with their star runner.
That leaves Guerendo at the top of the depth chart. When he’s had opportunities this season, he’s absolutely smashed. He’s averaged 5.9 yards per attempt on his 42 carries, and he combines size and speed in a way that very few running backs can:
That’s an elite group of comps, and he’s the no-brainer top add off the waiver wire this week. He’s a no-doubt starter for the duration of the fantasy playoffs as long as he’s on the field.
Quench Your Hard-Earned Thirst With Mike’s Hard Lemonade 🍋
Fantasy Football playoffs are around the corner! And while that may be cause for celebration for some, that also means there are hard days to come. Mike’s Hard Lemonade wants to remind you that Hard Days Deserve a Hard Lemonade.
It doesn't matter if you're a playoff lock, fighting for that final spot or if your season was over the minute you made pick 1.01, you worked hard all season so quench your hard-earned thirst with a Mike’s Hard Lemonade.
Find Mike’s Hard Lemonade near you at www.MikesHard.com.
Week 14 Utilization Report
Let's follow the data to identify the top waiver wire options, trade targets, upgrades, and downgrades based on what we learned in Week 13.
Note: as you read through the Utilization Report, you'll notice the Utilization Score being used as a pillar of analysis. For more information on how to use the score and why it's more predictive than fantasy points per game, read here.
The Bucs offense is going to win fantasy championships.
Tampa Bay is fighting for a playoff berth with a 58% probability of getting in, per NFL.com. That makes the Bucs a highly motivated team with a favorable schedule, facing the Raiders, Chargers, Cowboys, and Panthers over the final four games of the fantasy season.
Baker Mayfield
Mayfield stumbled against the Panthers in Week 13, registering only 11.2 fantasy points, but he still ranks seventh in passing yards (253) and third in touchdowns (2.1) per game. The seventh-year veteran is on pace to register career highs in completion percentage (71%) and passer rating (101.3), with his highest yards per attempt (YPA) mark since his rookie campaign.
Mayfield is the QB5 with 20.4 fantasy points per game, and with Mike Evans back in the fold and a soft schedule outside of the Chargers, he is positioned perfectly for the fantasy playoffs.
Mayfield is a top-five quarterback the rest of the way.
Bucky Irving
Since their Week 11 bye, the Buccaneers have made a conscious effort to give Irving more opportunities. Over the last two games, he has an 8.1 Utilization Score, leading the backfield in snaps, rushing attempts, and target share.
It is hard to imagine this trend reversing, considering how Irving has rewarded the team with 240 rushing yards, 2 rushing TDs, and 97 receiving yards. The rookie has averaged 6.5 yards per carry, with 5.1 per carry coming after contact.
Rachaad White continues to see playing time, keeping Irving from ascending to every-down status, but the rookie doesn't need a full-time workload to provide high-end fantasy production. His historical comps have reached RB1 status 58% of the time.
RB1 to 6 finishes: 8%
RB7 to 12 finishes: 50%
RB13 to 18 finishes: 33%
RB19 to 24 finishes: 8%
Irving UPGRADES to borderline RB1 status and offers high-end RB1 upside.
Mike Evans
The Bucs were cautious with Evans in Week 12, restricting him to a 66% route participation, but they removed the governor in Week 13. Evans registered his second-highest mark of the season at 90% and dominated with a 35% target share on his way to 25.8 fantasy points.
Over the last two contests, Evans leads the team with an 8.7 Utilization Score—he has a whopping 32% targets per route run (TPRR).
Evans delivered a top-10 fantasy campaign last year with Mayfield, averaging 16.6 points per game. This year, his average in games with a 70% route participation or higher is 17.7. His historical comps averaged 17.5, with 38% notching a top-six finish.
Evans UPGRADES to midrange WR1 territory the rest of the way.
MORE UTILIZATION REPORT TAKEAWAYS
Week 14 Waiver Wire Pickups
Isaac Guerendo, RB, 49ers (43% rostered)
Yes, this was a rewrite. Originally I had Jordan Mason on here as the 49ers running back to target, but we got news on Monday afternoon that San Francisco was not only placing Christian McCaffrey on IR, but Mason as well. This leaves Isaac Guerendo as the next man up. We are so close to the fantasy playoffs you don't need me to tell you that Guerendo is a must-add. Just go and get him ASAP. The team also signed former Green Bay Packers running back Patrick Taylor Jr. to a one-year deal earlier this offseason so he could get mixed in as well.
Will Levis, QB, Titans (12% rostered)
I SAID THIS WEEK WAS GOING TO BE WEIRD, OK?! Will Levis has a favorable rest-of-season schedule and with quarterbacks like Jayden Daniels and Lamar Jackson on a bye then you might have to dig deep a little. Earlier this season you did not want to get near Levis in fantasy, but recently he has scored 15-plus points in four straight games.
The Titans take on the Jaguars at home in Week 14 before finishing their season facing the Bengals, Colts, Jaguars and Texans. He's worth a look!
The latest fantasy nuggets, silliness, and NFL gossip from our merry band of football nerds:
🔮 Where are we drafting Brock Bowers and Ladd McConkey in 2025? Ian, Chris, and Charch look short and long term.
🚑️ Injury updates. CMC, Taysom Hill.
💪 Dan Campbell is such a football guy. What an epic response to the Gibbs snafu.
🏆️ Here we go … Saquon’s MVP odds keep going up.
❓Last chance to make the playoffs. The Fantasy Life Waiver Wire Tool has you covered.
🤣 Allen’s reaction to the infamous TD catch. I love football.
Week 13 Sheesh Report
by Ian Hartitz
Brian Thomas almost had a HUGE day at the office
The Jaguars' stud rookie receiver has been pretty much the only bright spot for Duval County this season. Last Sunday was no exception, as Thomas racked up 87 total yards and a TD on 5 touches.
Here's the thing: The performance could've, should've, would've been SO much bigger with simply two more accurate downfield passes.
The 2024 NFL Draft's 23rd overall pick has certainly looked the part of an alpha No. 1 WR during the bulk of his professional debut season. Here's to hoping a new-and-improved coaching staff and offensive line help lead to more consistent boxscore success in 2025 and beyond.
While no receiver had more yards left on the field than Thomas in Week 13, he wasn't the only one to miss out on quite a few fantasy points.
