In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by Underdog Fantasy:
One of the trickiest things in fantasy football is knowing when to buy the dip on a player who disappointed the previous year, or when to cut bait and move on.
If you hit on the bounce back, you look like a genius.
If you whiff on the martingale, you look like the drunk idiot at the blackjack table who has made four trips to the ATM.
This is the dilemma I find myself in with Saints RB Kendre Miller this year. I loaded up on him in 2023 drafts and he proceeded to break my heart.
And up until yesterday, I was ready to double down. Alvin Kamara has one foot out the door and was extremely inefficient on the ground last year. The rest of the Saints depth chart is uninspiring. I couldn’t fathom a world where Miller breaks out and I was a year too early.
Unfortunately, the Kendre vibes from Saints camp continue to be horrendous. Things bottomed out yesterday with Miller suffering a hamstring injury, forcing him to leave practice early. Head Coach Dennis Allen didn’t seem thrilled about it.
Miller had little margin for error to get a real crack at leading this backfield and this setback makes it less likely. I’m going to pump the brakes in drafts, shifting more shares to backs going in a similar tier. Our ADP tool can get you started with potential pivots going in a similar range. Sigh.
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- Ian Hartiz’s Tier 2 RBs (4 intriguing options)
- A $15 million prize pool for checks notes, fantasy football?
- Watercooler: Sleepers emerge from training camp
RB Tiers: 4 Intriguing Tier 2 Options
by Ian Hartitz
Tier 2: High-end RB1, but just one small problem
Most of us don't need more than one hand to count the number of RBs we prefer ahead of these guys, although the presence of a dual-threat QB or fellow rock star in the backfield makes their projection just a bit harder to get excited about relative to the position's big-three options...
Eagles RB Saquon Barkley: Philly has 37.75 million reasons to feature their new shiny RB, who should enjoy the biggest runways of his career behind PFF's reigning top-ranked offensive line.
Colts RB Jonathan Taylor: The rising fifth-year stud is projected to lead the NFL in rush attempts behind PFF's reigning third-ranked offensive line that just so happens to return all five starters – and don't be surprised if that Anthony Richardson guy helps widen those rushing lanes, even if dual-threat QBs don't typically bring out the best of their RBs in fantasy land.
Lions RB Jahmyr Gibbs: Averaged 16.7 PPR points per game alongside a healthy David Montgomery from Week 10 through the NFC Championship – that would have been good for RB7 status during the regular season, and the ceiling remains the roof should Montgomery miss any time.
Dolphins RB De'Von Achane: Just broke the NFL record for yards per carry (7.8) in a single season with at least 100 rush attempts. While we should again expect Achane to split usage with Raheem Mostert fairly evenly, the rising second-year talent's "break the sport" sort of weekly upside is worthy of early-round investment.
Looking to access all of our RB projections for 2024? Sign up for FantasyLife+ to access our full suite of fantasy football projections for the upcoming season!
Most likely to help push his QB's tush on the one-yard line: Saquon Barkley
It'd sure make a lot of sense if the Eagles' badass offensive line and Jalen Hurts' dual-threat prowess make life quite a bit easier when it comes to Barkley picking up yards efficiently on the ground. After all, only the Ravens (1.9) and Bills (1.8) have been as good as the Eagles (1.8) when it comes to rushing yards before contact per carry over the past three seasons.
Then again, this Eagles offensive environment hasn't been all that conducive to high-end fantasy success for RBs due to Hurts' tendencies to:
Scramble instead of checking down: Hurts has fed Eagles RBs just 246 total targets since taking over the starting job in 2021 – the eighth-lowest mark in the NFL.
Take control of the offense at the opponent's goal line: Eagles RBs rank 30th in carries from the one-yard line (10) over the past three seasons.
Overall, the Eagles have offered a bottom-five offensive environment in terms of expected RB PPR points per game over the past two seasons despite functioning as the NFL's fourth-ranked scoring offense during the same span. Opportunity rules all for RBs in fantasy land, and Philly simply hasn't gone out of their way to make life all that easy for their lead backs in Miles Sanders (RB37, RB21) and D'Andre Swift (RB24).
Intriguingly, Eagles RBs do in fact rank first in rush attempts from their opponent's 2-5 yard lines during this span; Barkley should get at least one opportunity to score when the Eagles get around the goal line – he just better take advantage of it.
Ultimately, Barkley does profile as the team's every-down workhorse back; it'd be surprising if he doesn't finish with around 300 combined carries and targets with a little help from the injury Gods. This makes him worthy of mid-tier RB1 treatment, even if it'd be a lot cooler if there was more upside on the goal line and in the passing game.
TIER 3: TARGET-BRAND DISCOUNTED BELL-COW RBS (4)
And I love Target! That said, there's a reason why you're getting groceries from there and not Whole Foods. And there's a reason why these RBs are generally still available after Round 1 despite being expected to finish as top-12 producers at the position…
Ravens RB Derrick Henry: Recorded a top-12 PPR finish in 59% of his games last season — a mark only bested by Christian McCaffrey (81%) and Kyren Williams. Now imagine that sort of performance inside the Ravens' reigning top-five offense in both points per game and PFF offensive line rank.
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The latest fantasy nuggets, silliness, and NFL gossip from our merry band of football nerds:
✍️ Biggest takeaways from three different mock drafts. Which QB strategy is optimal for 2024?
📈 Ian and Dwain are breaking down QB tiers for 2024.
✈️ A WR flying under the radar? Should be ready for Week 1.
👀 Free agency is mostly behind us…but there are still players available that could have a fantasy impact.
🤔 Is J.K. Dobbins 100%? You be the judge.
🚑 News on Nick Chubb. Don't panic, this was expected.
⭐Standouts from Bills camp. Love seeing this for the rookie RB.
🔒 Don't overthink the WR1 in Carolina. It's pretty clear.
🥁 The drumbeat continues on this Lions WR. I'm listening.
