In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by Guillotine Leagues:
Yesterday, we wondered if another big WR trade was incoming … and we were right!
Sort of.
The big WR trade didn’t involve Cooper Kupp (yet), but instead featured DeAndre Hopkins going from one of the worst teams in football (Titans) to one of the best teams (Chiefs).
Let’s quickly break it down …
Compensation: The Chiefs sent a 5th-round pick that will become a 4th-round pick if 1) they make it to the Super Bowl and 2) Hopkins plays in 60% of the snaps the rest of the season. The Titans are eating $2.5M of his salary to make the deal work.
Chiefs fantasy impact: The Chiefs WR situation has taken an ugly turn of late, so Hopkins is a very welcomed edition. In his immediate reaction piece—Ian said he now offers “WR3 upside with the potential for WR2 spike weeks”—which sounds about right to me. This also kills whatever production JuJu Smith-Schuster managers had been counting on of late.
Titans fantasy impact: On the other side, Calvin Ridley was already getting as much work as he could handle (he leads the league in unrealized air yards) and will continue to deal with horrendous QB play. His outlook remains unchanged until Will Levis learns how to throw a football.
Read on for Dwain’s risers and fallers in the Week 8 ranks …
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- Dwain’s Week 8 Rankings: Risers, Fallers, and Sicko Starts
- Watercooler: TNF goodness
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Week 8 Risers & Fallers
by Dwain McFarland
It is time to set our fantasy lineups and with that in mind, let's follow the data to analyze some of the biggest Week 8 fantasy football rankings risers and fallers to help you make those critical start-sit decisions.
📈 Rankings Risers
Tyreek Hill | WR | Dolphins
We should have Tua Tagovailoa back under center this weekend, which would provide a massive boost up the ranks to Hill. In Week 1 with Tagovailoa, Hill did his usual thing with 26 fantasy points, but since then, he has averaged only 7.4 with finishes of WR46, WR48, WR46, WR26, and WR66.
Oddsmakers are also on board with a quick bounceback–Miami has the fifth-highest team total (26 points). From a Pick'em perspective, Hill's receiving yardage is 87.5 yards on Underdog in a quality matchup against a Cardinals' defense, allowing the fifth-most receiving yards per game (247).
Hill UPGRADES to high-end WR1 status if Tagovailoa plays. I have Hill No. 3 in my WR ranks.
Cooper Kupp | WR | Rams
We only saw Kupp for ~1.5 games before a high-ankle sprain knocked him out of action. However, in that small sample, he looked as Cooper Kupp as ever, with a blistering 36% target share and 41% air yards share. In Week 1, he had a near-perfect 9.9 Utilization Score!
Like Hill, Kupp wastes zero time zooming back up the rankings. However, we need a little more caution, given it is his first game back from injury. The Rams could limit his workload as part of a ramp-up plan, and/or Kupp might not be as effective if he isn't 100% yet.
Of course, we also have some trade rumors swirling around the uber-productive slot WR. If the Rams are serious about a trade, that could be another excuse for not fully unleashing Kupp. While those factors keep me from pushing Kupp as high as Hill in the ranks, it is almost impossible to keep him out of the top 10.
The Vikings allow the sixth-most passing yards per game. While some of that is due to their leading game scripts, Minnesota doesn't have a shutdown defender they can depend on to lock up Kupp. Even if they did, Kupp is the most matchup-proof WR in the NFL. Sean McVay knows how to protect his No. 1 target with motion at the snap and favorable alignments.
Note: Puka Nacua is listed as questionable for Thursday night.
Kupp UPGRADES to mid-range WR1 status.
📉 Rankings Fallers
Alvin Kamara | RB | Saints
Kamara registered his lowest Utilization Score (6.8) of the season last week against the Broncos. He had a 58% snap share and only handled 39% of the rushing attempts, with Kendre Miller soaking up 33%. The issue wasn't quarantined to late-game snaps, either. Kamara accounted for only 55% of the rushing attempts in the first half after averaging 70% over the previous five contests.
Kamara isn't going away, but Miller could help lighten the load, and that is enough to move him down the ranks with a tough matchup against the Chargers on tap. The Bolts have allowed only 95 yards per game on the ground. On a positive note, they play the second-most zone coverage, which could lead to more looks in the passing game.
The Saints carry the second-lowest team total (15.8) on the slate.
Kamara DOWNGRADES to mid-range RB2 status.
👀 Sicko Starts
I want to throw in a few names for all my fellow fantasy managers that are in a SICKO league. If you are in a 12-team league with three starting WRs and two flexes, these are for you! Or you are in a more typical setup but need a name to help get you through injuries; these are for you!
Raheem Mostert | RB | Dolphins
Mostert is starting in 28% of lineups and is available on waivers 20% of the time.
This play is admittedly thin, but that is what sickos starts are all about, and the pickings were pretty slim this week. The expected return of Tagovailoa has boosted the Dolphins' stock in the eyes of oddsmakers (26-point team total), which could be enough for Mostert to come through despite a mediocre workload.
Last weekend, Mostert handled 31% of the attempts and posted a 28% route participation. That puts him in line for 10 to 14 opportunities against a Cardinals defense, allowing the sixth-most rushing yards per game (139).
Last year, in games with 10 to 14 opportunities, Mostert posted RB18, RB31, RB11, RB34, RB20, RB13, RB18, RB21 and RB26 finishes.
Mostert is an RB3 but could scratch out an RB2 finish in a good matchup if Tagovailoa is back.
Dontayvion Wicks | WR | Packers
Wicks is starting in less than 10% of leagues and is available on waivers 68% of the time.
Wicks popped off for 13.8 points in the fantasy boxscore last weekend despite battling a shoulder injury and a lowly 46% route share. Wicks accomplished that production by leading the team with a 35% TPRR. He has now led or tied for the team lead in that department in each of the last four games.
This weekend, the Packers face the second-worst pass defense in the NFL, which also happens to use man coverage the fourth most. Wicks leads all Packers WRs by a large margin in target share versus man coverage at 26%.
Wicks UPGRADES to the boom-bust WR4 conversation.
⭐️ The Stars Align ⭐️
Our founder, Matthew Berry, reminds us all that you can start an in-season Guillotine League in a not-so-subtle fashion. Behold the mid-season Celebrity Guillotine League!
Featuring John Legend, Kane Brown, Nicole Wallace, Miles Teller, and more.
We have our money on Nicole Wallace, errr, Matthew Berry, of course!
Who are YOU betting on coming out on top?!
The latest fantasy nuggets, silliness, and NFL gossip from our merry band of football nerds:
👍️ The Panthers are forced back to Bryce Young. Here we go…
⚔️ Week 8 kicks off with a great game … projections for Rams/Vikings.
🚑️ Uh oh, a new injury for the Jets. Don’t like that.
💰️ The best prop bets for tonight’s Rams/Vikings game. We’ve got you covered.
🏀 Cooper Kupp HS basketball highlights? Sure, why not.
🐶 The Browns announce their new starting QB. YES!
✈️ The Titans made two trades yesterday. Here’s another with the Seahawks.
