In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by Paramount+:
The NFL is littered with funky storylines, but I’m not sure there is anything weirder than what is going on in Cleveland right now.
The Browns—who are 1-5 and dead last in the AFC North—just punted their best player away to the Bills despite remaining unjustifiably committed to their flailing QB.
Oh, and they are about to get back one of the best RBs in the league.
It makes no sense to continue to roll out Deshaun Watson as a human sacrifice to opposing defenses (even if some of us are lapping up the schadenfreude). He is literally one of the worst QBs in the league.
The only way the Browns can get out of his albatross contract is if the league suspends him again. And guess what? It was recently reported that the league is still reviewing the latest claims against him after a new lawsuit was filed in September.
Still, even if the Browns are holding out hope that they can void his contract, why not bench him in the meantime?
Even with the return of Nick Chubb this weekend (btw, read his recent piece in The Player’s Tribune when you get a sec), this offense is completely toast for as long as Watson is at the helm.
Quit this charade, Cleveland, and give us Jameis Winston. Our fantasy teams are begging you …
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- Dwain’s Week 7 Rankings: Risers, Fallers, and Sicko Starts
- Watercooler: TNF goodness
Week 7 Risers & Fallers
by Dwain McFarland
It is time to set our fantasy lineups and with that in mind, let's follow the data to analyze some of the biggest Week 7 fantasy football rankings risers and fallers to help you make those critical start-sit decisions.
📈 Rankings Risers
J.K. Dobbins | RB | Chargers
Dobbins is sitting at the center of a perfect storm.
Dobbins handled 73% of the snaps and 68% of the rushing attempts last weekend, with Gus Edwards moved to IR.
The Chargers are the seventh-most run-heavy team with a -4.1 dropback rate over expectation (DBOE).
The Cardinals allow the fourth-most rushing yards per game (153).
Kimani Vidal will steal some passing-down reps, but Dobbins offers MASSIVE upside against Arizona. This setup could ignite a 150-yard and multi-TD explosion.
Dobbins UPGRADES to top-six RB status and is SMASH play.
Diontae Johnson | WR | Panthers
Johnson has a 9.1 Utilization Score (the best you can get is 10) with 18.3 fantasy points per game with Andy Dalton as the starter. I don't need to type much more because a four-week sample for the Utilization Score is more predictive of next week's performance than any other metric (including fantasy points) that I have ever tested.
But we are having fun here, so we can't leave out an important detail: Johnson is facing the Commanders!
Yes, those Commanders. The ones that rank third-worst in PFF coverage grade (47.4) and provide the third-highest fantasy boost (5.7) to the WR position.
- Mike Evans: 5-61-2
- Chris Godwin: 8-83-1
- Malik Nabers: 10-127-1
- Ja'Marr Chase: 6-118-2
- Marvin Harrison: 5-45-1
- Zay Flowers: 9-132-0 (by halftime)
Okay, now I am done.
Johnson UPGRADES to WR11 and is a SMASH PLAY, y'all.
📉 Rankings Fallers
Kyler Murray | QB | Cardinals
Murray ranks 12th in fantasy points per game (17.8) thanks to his rushing ability. However, we were hoping for more from an offense that added Harrison Jr. to go along with a young stud tight end in McBride. Unfortunately, the passing offense has fizzled, with Murray averaging only 198 yards per contest.
This weekend, the Cardinals might be without Harrison (concussion), and the Chargers have limited opponents to only 173 yards per game. There could be some smoke-and-mirrors going on with that rank since the schedule has been soft, but Murray looks like another soft matchup at this point.
Murray DOWNGRADES to borderline QB1 status.
Kareem Hunt | RB | Chiefs
Hunt took over the lead role in Week 5 with 75% of the Chiefs rushing attempts on his way to a 7.7 Utilization Score and 18.8 fantasy outing. However, he didn't look particularly impressive, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire could return to the fold this weekend. You can call this more of a hunch, but I am not fully bought into Hunt as the clear-cut No. 1.
The 49ers have held opponents to the eight-fewest rushing yards per game (99.5), and the Chiefs have a modest team total by their standards (22.5).
Hunt is a low-end RB2 in Week 7.
👀 Sicko Start
I want to throw in a few names for all my fellow fantasy managers that are in a SICKO league. If you are in a 12-team league with three starting WRs and two flexes, these are for you! Or you are in a more typical setup but need a name to help get you through injuries; these are for you!
Let's go, you sickos.
Tank Bigsby | RB | Jaguars
Bigsby is only in 38% of starting lineups and is a free agent in 34% of leagues.
Last week was a disaster for Bigsby managers, who finally decided to give their new toy a spin. The good news is that it was a game-script-induced performance. The bad news is also that it was a game-script-induced performance. That means if the contest against the Patriots ends up in a trailing scenario, we could see more D'Ernest Johnson again.
However, this should be a competitive game at a minimum, and there is a chance the Jaguars control the contest. That is the type of script where Bigsby should thrive if Travis Etienne can't play. In that scenario, I expect Bigsby to handle 50 to 60% of the rushing attempts, with Johnson taking the passing-down reps.
The Patriots have surrendered 128 yards per game on the ground. This is an excellent setup for Bigsby, who has looked like one of the best backs in the league over the first six games. He offers a unique blend of size, acceleration, and power that can unlock a 100-yard performance with multi-TD upside.
Bigsby UPGRADES to low-end RB2 status if Etienne can't go but offers RB1 upside. I have him ahead of names like Zack Moss, Devin Singletary, and Rachaad White.
Alternates: Javonte Williams, Raheem Mostert
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The latest fantasy nuggets, silliness, and NFL gossip from our merry band of football nerds:
👀 Jonathon Brooks is nearing his return. What to expect between him and Chuba Hubbard moving forward.
🤝 ICYMI: The Vikings traded for an RB. Again!
⚔️ Week 7 kicks off with a Sean Payton revenge game … projections for the game.
📈 Some key players returned to practice yesterday: Brian Robinson Jr., Malik Nabers, Davante Adams
💰️ The best prop bets for tonight’s Broncos/Saints game. We’ve got you covered.
😭 The most insane fantasy performance you’ll ever see. 1.22 points!
🤔 Why the Tom Brady broadcasting experience feels pointless. He has handcuffs.
😡 The Saints are down bad. No Olave this week and now this.
