In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by Experian:
This could have been an incredibly difficult newsletter to write.
Instead, we get to celebrate some truly incredible news.
Over the weekend, 49ers rookie WR Ricky Pearsall survived a bullet to his chest during an attempted robbery in San Francisco.
In a post on her Facebook, Perasall’s mother said the bullet missed all of his vital organs and exited out his back. He then walked to the ambulance mostly on his own accord.
It’s beyond horrifying that a first-round NFL pick nearly lost his life over a watch, but all I can do is feel thankful right now that he is okay.
And can we also just take a second to re-iterate that Pearsall fought off a gunman, took a bullet to the chest, and walked himself to an ambulance?
What an absolute dog. I’ll be a fan for life.
I hope everyone enjoys their Labor Day, which is always one of the biggest draft days of the year. We got everything you need in case you need to cram….
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- Dwain McFarland’s league winners for the 2024 fantasy football season
- Sleeper picks to target courtesy of the entire Fantasy Life Staff.
- Ian Hartitz breaks down the best picks, round by round.
Four Playmakers Who Have League-Winning Upside in 2024
- by Dwain McFarland
We don't just want to beat our leaguemates in fantasy football. Honestly, we hope to destroy them. Am I right!?!?
One way to achieve this is by targeting players with elite play-making ability in situations that make our league mates nervous.
That last part is essential. When uncertainty makes other drafters fearful, we want to embrace it, especially when it surrounds high-end talent. There are a couple of great things about these types of players.
When the public is wrong about their perceived limitations, we end up with league-winners.
When the public is correct about their perceived limitations, we can still end up with startable players because they can do more with less.
This season, there are four playmakers that I am targeting every chance I get, and these individuals have “fantasy football league winners” well within their range of outcomes.
De'Von Achane | RB | Dolphins
- ESPN average draft position (ADP): RB13 (Pick 34.8)
- Yahoo ADP: RB11 (25.9)
Achane took the league by storm last season, averaging 16.3 points per game (PPG). If we remove Week 1, when he only played 8% of the snaps and Week 11, when returning from injury (4% snaps), his average was 19.6.
Over the last three seasons, the No. 3 RB in fantasy football scoring has averaged 19.7 points per contest. So why is Achane falling to RB12 and RB13 in ESPN and Yahoo leagues?
Many believe that Achane is too small to handle a more significant workload and that his 7.9 yards per carry is due for massive regression. These are both reasonable concerns — especially the regression part. We have him at five yards per carry in the Fantasy Life projections.
We have also been conservative with Achane regarding his workload, but we shouldn't assume that a breakout player of his caliber won't see more playing time. The second-year back bulked up this offseason, and Raheem Mostert will be 32.
Last season, Achane handled 40% of the attempts and posted a 53% route participation in games with Mostert. We have him projected for 41% and 47%, and he comes out as the RB13. But what if those numbers climb modestly to 50% and 55%? That would move Achane to RB4 with 16.3 PPG!
The same arguments against Achane were made about Austin Ekeler, who went on to deliver 21.6 (RB3) and 22.2 (RB1) performances after never handling more than 37% of the Chargers' totes.
Achane's ADP is closer to his floor than his ceiling. He is a priority target in Round 3 – especially after starting WR-WR.
RELATED CONTENT:
- Looking to turn up the heat? Kendall’s hot takes for 2024.
- Matt LaMarca examines the latest ADP movers and how to react.
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2024 Fantasy Football Sleepers: Staff Picks
- by Fantasy Life Staff
Who could be some late-round winners in 2024? We asked our Fantasy Life staff members to toss out their favorite picks with a fantasy football ADP past 100 in most league formats. This is a mix of primarily rookies with upside and a few veterans who may be sliding down drafters’ ranks despite solid opportunities that could make these players steals during the season.
Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders
When the editors proposed this roundtable piece, I rushed to the outline so I could claim Jayden Daniels. He's that popular as a sleeper among the staff.
If you look in our free Fantasy Life Bet Tracker, you'll see I have bets on Daniels to win Offensive Rookie of the Year (+650) and to go over his season-long props of 525.5 yards rushing (-112) and 3,025.5 yards passing (-112). It feels as if I talk about him on every episode of the Betting Life Show. Last year, he led all FBS QBs with 1,134 yards rushing (including sacks) in just 12 games, and he was the No. 1 dual-threat QB in the 2019 high school recruitment class.
With his high-end rushing ability, he has a solid fantasy floor and the theoretical ceiling to finish as a top-three player at the position. –Matthew Freedman
Xavier Worthy, Kansas City Chiefs
The fastest man alive (wink) joins a Chiefs offense that has stressed its desire to get back to partying downfield like it’s 2018 again virtually all offseason long.
Preseason first-team usage reflects that Worthy is stepping into an immediate starting role alongside Rashee Rice and Hollywood Brown (once healthy). Yes, Travis Kelce is probably still the de facto No. 1 pass-game option here. Also yes, Worthy profiles as the primary deep threat for, you know, the best QB alive. Worthy’s price point as a boom-or-bust WR3 feels like his floor, while the ceiling sure looks a lot like 2023 Tank Dell—AKA someone you won’t ever want to take out of your starting lineup, even if there’s a fire. – Ian Hartitz
Time is running out to draft your fantasy teams and Fantasy Life's 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Kit is free! Click here to access all of the content you need to dominate your drafts.
The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of football nerds:
🔥 Seven bold predictions of various intensities…Ian dishes out his hot takes for 2024.
📈 A final look at ADP risers and fallers. Buying or selling the latest movers?
🐅 Bounceback candidates for 2024. Will this receiver restore the roar?
⏳ Last-minute drafts require last-minute strategy. Ian and Dwain are here to help.
💰 These bets might be boring, but that doesn’t mean they’re bad. The most reliable bets for 2024.
The Best Fantasy Football Picks in Every Round for 2024
- by Ian Hartitz
Fantasy football drafts are about picking the best team possible and then blaming injuries or unforeseen regression when things don't go our way. Something like that.
But then again, what if this is the year that every single one of our August theories turn out correct? What if the sleepers all wake up? What if the boom-or-bust dart throws all happen to boom? What if "my guys" don't suck?
Wishful thinking perhaps — but shooters shoot, and drafters draft: What follows is my preferred draft strategy by round alongside some of my favorite singular draft picks based on current ESPN fantasy football ADP.
Round 1
- General strategy: Draft one of the many ballers available, preferably one of the top-three RBs to set up a Hero- or Superhero-RB build if the board falls my way.
- Favorite targets: They're all pretty great, but it's tough to not prefer Bijan Robinson or Breece Hall in the early-middle portions of Round 1 given some of the newfound question marks with the top-five WRs.
- Tier breaks: Tier 1 of RB and WR will be gone by the time Round 1 is over.
Look, it's Round 1. You will walk away with an alpha WR1 or a running back with 300-plus touches and double-digit TDs firmly in their potential range of outcomes. It's fair to feel a bit queasy about guys like Christian McCaffrey (calf), CeeDee Lamb (missed most of the training camp in a holdout) and Ja'Marr Chase (holding in, though expected to play Week 1) at the top of drafts, but then again those proven ballers are one piece of good news away from (again) being blue-chip selections at the top of any draft — I'm not fading them based on what we know at the moment.
Hero-RB is my preferred draft strategy this year; just realize we better have a HERO-worthy RB to swing it. For Round 1, I consider CMC, Bijan Robinson, and Breece Hall as worthwhile candidates; otherwise, give me one of the stud WRs with the potential to breeze past 150 targets. All good either way.
Round 2
- General strategy: Lock down a workhorse RB or electric committee option if you didn't get an RB in Round 1, otherwise move down the line at WR and keep building.
- Favorite targets: Both Jahmyr Gibbs and De'Von Achane have "break fantasy football" upside if things go their way this season, and I'm also not sleeping on Isiah Pacheco considering the Chiefs' soft RB depth chart and his potential to be a true workhorse in a sweet offense.
- Tier breaks: The de facto RB dead zone arguably begins after guys like Pacheco, Derrick Henry and Achane are off the board, while one can argue there's a LONG tier of upside WR2 options after the top-10 WRs (Drake London is usually the breaking point) are gone.
I'm not against starting drafts with a "Superhero" (two) RB build in leagues that only have two starting WR spots because the position starts to get a bit murky for the next few rounds. There are also some pretty extreme pricing discrepancies at WR in home leagues like ESPN and Yahoo, so securing two of the top eight or so RBs before turning our attention elsewhere is hardly malpractice.
Still, it's tough to not love guys like Garrett Wilson, Puka Nacua, Marvin Harrison Jr., and/or Drake London at this point of the draft if your room is going heavy at RB early. Each is a talented No. 1 WR with high-end target upside in an offense led by a QB we consider to be good at football. Just like in Round 1, I'm not really entering Round 2 firmly devoted to taking a specific position; be willing to take the value as it reveals itself.
Example: Dwain McFarland and myself completed an RT Sports high-stakes draft last Thursday and wound up starting Chase-Puka out of the 1.09 spot. We were willing to take Jonathan Taylor if he fell to us, but he didn't, so we took the alpha WR still available instead of attempting to play catch-up. Be like water.
Perfect Picks in Rounds 3 and Later
