Adonai Mitchell Fantasy Football Outlook After Big "What If" Game: Week 1 Sheesh Report
- Colts WR AD Mitchell … SHEESH
- Unrealized air yards are a helluva drug
- What's worse than getting stung by a bee? Watching your fantasy player drop a TD
- Better ball TDs are the worst, man
- What was up with that video of Marvin Harrison Jr. being wide open?
- The Eagles RB special: Down at the one-yard line, and no TD
- Touchdown! Yay! Oh No: Flag.
- What if defensive pass interference yards counted for fantasy points?
Week 1 has come and gone. 16 NFL games brought joy, laughs, and tears to football fans and, of course, fantasy football faithful.
Today, we’ll focus on the latter sadness and break down just how close some came to achieving fantasy football glory. Critics might call this unnecessary cruelty, while supporters could claim it helps with understanding the full context of what exactly happened last week.
Either way: Welcome to the Sheesh Report.
What follows is a breakdown of all the tilting, near-miss moments from Week 1 that left fantasy managers and fans alike saying, "Sheesh." I’ve watched hours of film and combed play-by-play data to help determine instances when:
- Pass-catchers could have scored or picked up big yardage with a more accurate pass
- Pass-catchers did receive an accurate pass that should have resulted in a score or big gain, but the ball was dropped
- Ball carriers managed to get all the way to the one-yard line, but didn’t score
- Players scored or picked up big yardage, but the play was nullified by penalty
- Other random shit tilted fantasy football managers of all shapes and sizes
First: The "Sheesh-VP" of Week 1. The "Sheesher of the Week" if you will. The Great Sheesh-ino. The Sultan of Sheesh. OK, sorry, yeah: The award for the player least responsible for having an absolute dud in the box score goes to…
Colts WR AD Mitchell … SHEESH
You've probably seen Anthony Richardson's absurd 60-yard TD to Alec Pierce by now. It was literally off the charts and deserves plenty of praise.
But here's something the mainstream media hasn't told you about: Rookie Colts WR A.D. Mitchell's box score (1 reception-2 yards-0 TD) is a LIE.
Kind of: That box score technically really did happen, but the absence of not one, not two, but three catchable deep balls left the 2024 NFL Draft's 57th overall pick with a whole lot of nothing instead of multiple trips into the end zone.
An illegal contact penalty slowed down Mitchell in the second clip, and the third miss was unlikely to go for six points due to the safety coming over the top. Still, it's not unreasonable to believe that even somewhat accurate passes from Richardson could have led to an additional 140 extra yards and two TDs.
Instead: Sheesh. Here's to hoping that next week the Colts' Wild Thing under center can save some of his well-placed deep balls for the team's talented rookie. Mitchell's 131 air yards were the eighth-highest mark of Week 1 when including penalties; he's a great under-the-radar option on the waiver wire (hopefully) set for positive regression and is only rostered in 32% of Yahoo leagues at the moment.
Speaking of air yards…
Unrealized air yards are a helluva drug
We can help quantity sheeshy plays like Mitchell's aforementioned overthrown deep balls using “unrealized air yards,” which are derived by subtracting yards after the catch from every player’s receiving yards total before taking the difference with total air yards to pinpoint exactly how much opportunity through the air (not including potential YAC) a player failed to come down with for one reason or another.
We're essentially measuring the total distance of everyone's incomplete targets. A high number indicates a player had a lot of fantasy-friendly opportunities but didn't capitalize on them for one reason or another. Cool? Cool.
ANYWAY: Nine players racked up at least 85 unrealized air yards in Week 1 (including penalties), and Mitchell surprisingly wasn't No. 1:
- Titans WR Calvin Ridley (134 unrealized air yards): The Titans' 92 million dollar man certainly got open plenty against the Bears, but Will Levis missed Ridley on not one, but two potential chunk scores. At least Levis gave us an all-time great meme in return for the week's third-worst mark in EPA per dropback (-0.356).
- Colts WR AD Mitchell (132)
- Brown WR Amari Cooper (115)
- Broncos WR Courtland Sutton (110)
- Rams WR Cooper Kupp (105)
- Saints WR Rashid Shaheed (102)
- Browns WR Jerry Jeudy (94)
- Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill (91)
- Panthers WR Xavier Legette (89)
- Ravens WR Rashod Bateman (85)
Of course, some misfires hurt more than others. Anytime touchdown bettors might want to sit this next section out.
What's worse than getting stung by a bee? Watching your fantasy player drop a TD
I would know. Both things have happened to me since Labor Day weekend — and I'll take a bee using me to commit seppuku over watching six points bounce off my wide receiver's hands eight days of the freaking week.
Back to the topic at hand: While drops are a somewhat subjective stat, you know one when you see one — and I, unfortunately, saw the following six dropped TDs with my own two eyes:
- Buccaneers WR Jalen McMillan: The rookie nearly added a second TD to his debut, but instead let a likely 38-yard score bounce off his fingertips.
- Browns WR Amari Cooper: While Cooper's QB was largely miserable against the Cowboys' elite defense, Deshaun Watson did get him one b-e-a-utiful deep ball that should have been a 36-yard TD … but sheesh.
- Saints "TE" Taysom Hill: The professional vulture/34-year-old Mormon Missile let a perfect throw bounce off his out-stretched hands on what would have been a 22-yard score.
- Bengals TE Mike Gesicki: The initial call was that Gesicki had hauled in a 15-yard TD in the back corner of the end zone, but further review showed that the ex-Dolphins/Patriots glorified big slot didn't maintain possession through the ground.
- 49ers WR Brandon Aiyuk: A lovely pass to the corner of the end zone hit Aiyuk in the hands … and then the football hit the ground. Peyton Manning was NOT pleased.
- Chargers WR Josh Palmer: Not the easiest catch in the world, but certainly one that should have been caught. Note that Justin Herbert would have gotten Palmer's head taken off had he led him more.
- Bears WR Keenan Allen: I won't make a fat-Keenan "butterfingers" sort of joke here because that wouldn't be very nice, but the 32-year-old veteran did indeed let a well-thrown six-yard TD bounce off his presumably sticky-free fingertips.
In defense of Keenan: He should have had a chance to catch a longer TD earlier in the game, but unfortunately didn't receive what most would consider a catchable pass. Don't you hate when that happens?
Better ball TDs are the worst, man
You know the moment. The receiver got open, the QB had a reasonable pocket to work from, the pass was there, the crowd stood up … and sheesh: overthrown, underthrown, too high, or too low, and all that goes into the box score is an incompletion.
Below are eight of these unfortunate sequences (sheesh-quences?) that occurred during the last week of action with varying degrees of needed YAC (not including Mitchell's previously highlighted misses):
- Commanders WR Terry McLaurin: Potential 70-yard TD was overthrown.
- Buccaneers WR Jalen McMillan: Would have needed some YAC, but there was nobody over the top on a potential 61-yard score that was off target.
- Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill: Should have had another score to his name from 51 yards out.
- Falcons WR Calvin Ridley: Missed out on potential 67- and 42-yard scores.
- Jaguars WR BrIan Thomas: The rookie beat Jalen Ramsey (!) for what could have been a 41-yard score, but an underthrow led to a DPI instead.
- Bears WR Keenan Allen: There's a chance the safety would have got to him before the end zone, but best case this could have been a 41-yard TD.
- Packers WR Christian Watson: Got open in the back of the end zone on what would have been a five-yard score with a good pass.
Now before we continue our trip down nightmare lane, let's take a moment to address one of the bigger perceived sheeshes of Week 1.
What was up with that video of Marvin Harrison Jr. being wide open?
It's true. It happened. The rookie had his hand up like prime Randy Moss and everything.
Here's the catch: A look at the all-22 of the play shows that Kyler Murray had moved on in his progression after pump faking to that side of the field, leading to more of an "unfortunate" than "egregious" non-target.
Don't believe me? Listen to ESPN's Dan Orlovsky on the matter.
Phew. What a workout there. Let's get back to some more straightforward sheesh.
The Eagles RB special: Down at the one-yard line, and no TD
Getting all the way to the one-yard line but failing to score a TD is objectively a sheeshy feeling — particularly when fantasy managers are forced to watch someone else vulture away the score that was SO CLOSE to belonging to them.
Here’s the full list of Week 1’s players who managed to get the football within three feet of the goal line, but not quite across the plane, and ultimately didn’t score later on the same drive:
- Commanders RB Brian Robinson (x2)
- Rams RB Kyren Williams
- Colts RB Jonathan Taylor
- Eagles RB Saquon Barkley
- Buccaneers RB Rachaad White
- Commanders WR Luke McCaffrey
- Lions TE Brock Wright
- Chiefs TE Noah Gray
Also note that Eagles QB Jalen Hurts fumbled a tush push snap at the one-yard line, while both Bengals TE Tanner Hudson (oy) and Jaguars RB Travis Etienne (ay caramba) lost possession of the football as they were just about to cross the goal line.
Near scores don't get much sheeshier than this. Then again, sometimes they do.
Touchdown! Yay! Oh No: Flag.
TDs usually get nullified by a penalty for a good reason, but that doesn’t make the roller coaster of adrenaline any less sheeshful for fantasy managers to deal with.
In Week 1 there were six such instances.
*Law and Order Music*
These are their stories:
- Packers WR Jayden Reed: The second-year stud's big Friday night was nearly even bigger, as an early 38-yard TD reception was nullified on offsetting too many men on the field penalties.
- Bills QB Josh Allen: He actually could have had a third rushing TD to his total, but unfortunately a four-yard jaunt to the end zone was wiped off the board on a face mask penalty on an offensive lineman.
- Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker: Had a six-yard TD run nullified due to a warranted DK Metcalf hold.
- 49ers RB Jordan Mason: His Monday night performance would have included a 17-yard TD if Deebo Samuel didn't seemingly take matters into his own hands by committing a holding penalty before vulturing the TD a few plays later. I'm kidding, or am I?
- Rams WR Jordan Whittington: Randomly scored on a goal line end around, only for the one-yard TD to be nullified on a hold.
- Saints Alvin Kamara: Had an 11-yard TD nullified on holding, only to later cap off the same drive with a one-yard plunge into the end zone. Sometimes there is justice in the otherwise unfair world of sheesh.
One more nullified score deserves a mention: Cowboys K Brandon Aubrey seemingly tied Justin Tucker's NFL record by drilling a 66-yard field goal before halftime, but it got taken away by a delay of game penalty. Dallas then declined to let him attempt a 71-yarder after thinking about it for a minute. At least the screenshot lives on.
Our final category of sheesh is another decision left at the digression of the zebras.
What if defensive pass interference yards counted for fantasy points?
Defensive pass interferences can be finicky and don’t always occur in instances when the targeted receiver would have FOR SURE made the catch.
That said: They are very annoying for fantasy managers to deal with when the result could’ve, should’ve, would’ve been a chunk gain — and maybe even a TD.
The top six players in most yards gained courtesy of drawing DPI flags were as follows:
- Jaguars WR Brian Thomas Jr. (40 yards down to the one-yard line)
- Vikings WR Jordan Addison (36)
- Saints WR Rashid Shaheed (31)
- Buccaneers WR Jalen McMillan (22 down to the four-yard line)
- Bengals WR Andre Iosivas (20)
- Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle (20)
I think I speak for all of us when I say for one last time: Sheesh.
Thanks for stopping by. We're on to Week 2.