ADP vs. PSA: What the most popular trading cards can teach us about fantasy football

Since 1991 Professional Sports Authenticator (better known as PSA) has examined and certified over 65 million collectibles. 

They grade a lot of things (checks, ticket stubs, photos — they’re even moving into comic books and magazine grading soon), but they’re best known for sports cards and they’ve graded some of the rarest and most valuable on the planet.

There's a lot of crossover between fantasy football and trading cards — rarity, value, chasing players; you might PC Sam Darnold cards the way I have him across 57 best ball teams (Note: grading a card is done mainly to judge the condition of it — a PSA 10 will be far more valuable in most cases than a PSA 9, and so forth. It also proves authenticity to potential buyers). 

So we asked the fine folks at PSA if we could compare and contrast a full fantasy football team roster, based exclusively on the most collected NFL athletes at each position during 2024.

This isn't an exact science by any means, but once we got this data we decided to apply a rankings angle to this whole thing. Using the submissions, I compared the PSA lineup and their current ADP on major sites with our own FantasyLife+ rankings to see what the outlook is for these players. 

Let’s dive in and see if the PSA collectors are as sharp in the fantasy streets as they are in the submission laboratory…

PSA’s Fantasy Football Team for the 2024 Season: (**based on volume of cards graded by PSA from January-Aug 2024)

PSA STARTERS

QB: CJ Stroud 

CJ Stroud was undoubtedly the hottest player in the collectors market last season. As he and the Texans rose in the standings, collectors started going after some of his big rookie cards, with lots of them fetching big prices.  

Even with the hype, our experts are staying bullish on Stroud this year. He’s at QB6, which is in alignment with his current rank on most major sites. However, many of our experts have him slated with a mid-50’s ADP which is 10+ spots below his current ADP on Underdog. Our most bullish Stroud expert, Matthew Freedman, has the Texans QB as his QB5 and ranked 43rd in his overall rankings, which is much lower than he’s going on Underdog Fantasy:

Stroud may be skyrocketing in the collectibles markets, but he still looks like a great value to target for fantasy this season. Who knows, in a few years maybe the current prices on his cards will look like great values as well. 

RB: Bijan Robinson | De’Von Achane

I wasn’t surprised to see Bijan Robinson’s name in the most popular running back submission list from PSA. He was a top-10 draft pick last season and gets a bump in value just from getting divorced from OC Arthur Smith this year. 

Achane was a little more surprising but, in my very biased opinion, his inclusion shows savviness from the PSA collectors. 

(Note: I already logged an OPOY bet on Achane in our free NFL bet tracker and generally think he’s one of the few players who can challenge Christian McCaffrey to be RB1 in fantasy this season). 

Achane averaged 7.8 ypc in his rookie, the most efficient season in NFL history (for any RB with more than 100 attempts) since Jamaal Charles posted 6.4 YPA in 2010, and will likely be attached to a top-five offense once again, led by offensive genius Mike McDaniel. 

Our rankers are high on both players but are admittedly being more cautious with Achane. Although, if you just ask Ian Hartitz (who has Achane ranked the highest with a 20.0 ADP), it’s likely he’ll tell you not to worry and just draft him whenever you get the chance. 

WR: Puka Nacua | Justin Jefferson 

Even coming off an injury-plagued 2023-24 season, Justin Jefferson remains one of the most popular wide receivers for collectors. He’s not going as the WR1 this season but our experts have him ranked as the WR4, which is right in line with consensus. Sam Darnold concerns aside, Jefferson just makes for a great player to chase in both the collectibles and fantasy markets given his youth and upside. By the time he’s done, it’s very possible that he could own multiple NFL receiving records. 

That last sentence mostly applies to Puka Nacua as well. Given that he just set the NFL rookie record for receiving yards (1,486) and receptions (105) I’d argue he’s almost a better collectible target with his age advantage and the fact he’s connected to a proven veteran QB like Matthew Stafford. 

Injury concerns have our rankers a little fearful of Nucua, as he’s a few spots below ADP in our consensus ranks. Overall, if you’re chasing him this season, it might be better to do so as a long-time holder in the card market than the redraft arena. 

Flex: Zay Flowers 

Flowers snatched the final starting skill-player spot on the “most submitted PSA fantasy team.” He was by far and away the most surprising inclusion for me, but his youth and the fact he’s attached to an MVP-winning QB in Lamar Jackson does offer a lot of appeal for collectors. 

Flowers is heading into nearly the same offense he did last season in Baltimore when he tallied 858 yards and landed five TDs. But with Derrick Henry now in the backfield, the question remains as to whether or not he can improve on those stats, specifically his TD totals. 

Overall, our experts agree it's best to be cautious with Flowers who may be a little overvalued in fantasy this season. We have him ranked about 10 spots above his current ADP. It’ll be interesting to see who was right on this one at the end of the season, the rankers, or the collectors. 

TE: Sam LaPorta

LaPorta hasn’t just surpassed Travis Kelce as the top TE in fantasy this season but he’s also become the player of choice for collectors. It’s not hard to see why people may be jumping on LaPorta from a collectibles standpoint. Kelce has been at the top of his position for so long that most collectors would have likely already obtained or submitted a ton of his cards in the past. 

This is another spot where the collectors and fantasy experts are in lockstep. The FantasyLife+ ranks have LaPorta as TE1, with an ADP that is nearly 10 spots better than his average on Underdog. 

Four of our five experts have him ranked as a great value at his current ADP. Best get your hands on LaPorta shares (and cards) while you can. 

DST and Kicker: Justin Tucker and Micah Parsons

Let me just say that I love that people submit Justin Tucker cards to PSA. Despite what some people say, kickers are people too! 

Tucker is neck and neck with the Cowboys' Brandon Aubrey in our ranks but I don’t think collectors are being unsavvy here at all. Tucker will go down in history as one of the best kickers ever, even if Aubrey may have surpassed him as the slightly better fantasy value. 

Dallas’ DST (representing Micah Parsons here) is currently ranked as the No. 2 consensus DST by our rankers but is going as the DST4 on Yahoo – one of the most popular redraft platforms for fantasy football.  

Bench

These guys didn’t make the first team but based on volume of cards graded by PSA (Jan-Aug 2024) they would have made it for a bench spot on a hypothetical “all-PSA team.”

These kinds of players won’t be sitting on your bench come fantasy football season BUT it is interesting to note some of the names that collectors are targeting. Veterans like Travis Kelce and Christian McCaffrey, who produce every season, are still getting plenty of love. And much like fantasy football and best ball drafters, collectors clearly can’t resist the siren call of young talent as they continue to mix in “upside” players like Jordan Addison and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. 

To find out where out experts have these players and more ranked, you can subscribe to FantasyLife+, which gives you access to expert ranks, Draft Champion (the most customizable mock draft simulator on the planet) and weekly fantasy and betting projections.