In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by New Era:
It’s rare for the preseason to give us an iconic moment, but that’s exactly what happened on Saturday during the Chiefs-Lions game.
As you might imagine, it involved Patrick Mahomes…
On a 3rd and 3 in the first quarter, Mahomes threw a behind-the-back screen pass to TE Travis Kelce.
The best part, though, is that Mahomes threw the pass “out of spite” because he was mad that Kelce ran the wrong route.
It’s one thing for the rest of the NFL to worry about having to defend designed plays like this, but it’s beyond cruel to learn it was completely unscripted.
Between this and the added dimension rookie WR Xavier Worthy is bringing to the offense, it’s going to be demoralizing for the defenses tasked with slowing these guys down.
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What else is in today’s newsletter?
- Waz’s Half-PPR Rankings: Tiers 1-4
- Watercooler: Preseason nuggets
Value Plays In .5 PPR Leagues
- by Rob Waziak
It’s “My Guys” season, and one of the biggest challenges to landing one of your “My Guys” is understanding current ADP, its trends, and how to navigate it to both assure you can draft who you want while keeping your draft from unraveling by unnecessarily reaching for a player.
Now, your “My Guys” are likely not the same as my “My Guys,” and our “My Guys” are probably not the same as their “My Guys,” but let’s discuss some “My Guys”—worthy players within the top six tiers of my Half-PPR Rankings that are most misaligned with ADP.
But first, in the wise words of the noble Ian Hartitz—"don’t hate the player, hate the ADP.”
🥇 Tiers 1 & 2
No surprises here. Christian McCaffrey, Tyreek Hill, and CeeDee Lamb lead the way in Tier 1 while a trio of wide receivers in Amon-Ra St. Brown, Ja’Marr Chase, and Justin Jefferson, and a pair of running backs in Bijan Robinson and Breece Hall, round out Tier 2.
Despite the season-ending knee injury to J.J. McCarthy, Jefferson remains entrenched within Tier 2 as the WR5. ADP has him going off the board as the WR4 ahead of St. Brown, but I’m against consensus on that one.
Sam Darnold was already projected to be the Vikings’ Week 1 starting quarterback, but under an assumption that he would have a short leash with the crowd-favored possibility of getting benched for the rookie at some point during the season. Since that scenario is no longer a possibility, Chase is now more comfortably entrenched above Jefferson, a result of a much more stable (and better) quarterback throwing him the ball.
Draft any eight of these players however you wish. They are among the safest options with steady floors and exceptional upside in any given week and will be the foundation of your fantasy football team.
🥉 Tiers 3 & 4
These tiers include 20 WRs, 16 RBs, and 4 TEs, but outside of one outlier, ADP and I are most misaligned on the WRs.
For starters, Derrick Henry (RB4) is a certified “My Guy” this season. The Ravens saw the second-most red-zone rushing attempts in 2023 with 111, and sixth most in 2022. In those years, no RB saw half of the snaps, but Henry joins the team chosen to be the Ravens’ bell cow and is projected to see a 72.4% opportunity share. I prefer Henry over the ADP-favored Jahmyr Gibbs (RB5), Jonathan Taylor (RB6), Saquon Barkley (RB7), and Isiah Pacheco (RB8).
While I am a fan of the player and his talent, there are currently four WRs going after Drake London (WR14) in drafts that I feel shouldn’t be—Davante Adams (WR10), Deebo Samuel (WR11), Chris Olave (WR12), and Mike Evans (WR13).
Because these players share a tier, it is widely acceptable to assume they’re interchangeable as their range of outcomes aligns with one another, but I feel that Kirk Cousins (QB17) and more proper usage of Bijan Robinson (RB2) will be detrimental to London’s upside.
While I feel similarly about Derek Carr (QB25) and Olave, I believe Carr will see and use more designed passing opportunities from new OC Klint Kubiak to accommodate Alvin Kamara’s (RB17) skillset, which would provide Olave with increased opportunity as a result. Rashid Shaheed (WR52) is also dealing with his second lower-body injury of the offseason, and while it may not be anything serious, it is worth noting when fine-combing the ranks.
The upside of Adams, Samuel, and Evans has been on display for years, and each player should have another solid season thanks to their teams’ playcalling styles. Having QBs Gardner Minshew (QB33) and Aidan O’Connell (QB34) is not worth promoting, but the Raiders offense funnels through Adams, who has seen no fewer than 27% of the Raiders’ targets per route run (TPRR) while participating in no fewer than 95% of the team’s offensive snaps since joining the team in 2022. Samuel, Olave, and Evans were also highlighted in my draft targets for touchdown-only leagues article.
Jaylen Waddle (WR18), Malik Nabers (WR22), and Nico Collins (WR23) are three WRs I do like skill-wise, and each has incredible upside in scoring fantasy points, but I just don’t think I can elevate them as much as everyone else.
D.J. Moore (WR15) is going after all three but shouldn’t be. I recently highlighted Moore in my PPR rankings update, referencing how his 4-year $110M contract extension and history of hogging his team’s target share and air yards are notable indicators that the Bears are immediately identifying him as Caleb Williams’ (QB14) franchise WR1. That must count for something.
Amari Cooper (WR20) and Rashee Rice (WR26) round out these tiers, and like Moore, are deserving of more love. While they have not been efficient, the Browns are still churning out plays at a wild rate, leading the league with 69.72 per game in 2023 and 65.12 in 2022—sixth most in the league. Despite missing a pair of games last season and seeing a slightly lower snap and target share, Cooper improved on his already-favorable 2022 numbers, seeing increased marks in his TPRR, yards per route run (YPRR), and average depth of target (ADOT) in 2023.
In his rookie campaign, Rice was offered a 56% opportunity in routes and 18% opportunity in targets on those routes. While the numbers appear low individually, they indicate that Rice saw a target on 26% of his routes—a very optimistic indicator of what the future may hold. There are other mouths to feed in an offense led by Patrick Mahomes (QB3), but with Hollywood Brown’s (WR51) recent shoulder injury likely sidelining him through the first two games of the season, and 2024’s 28th-overall pick Xavier Worthy (WR40) familiarizing himself with the offense, Rice’s stock should naturally blossom.
RELATED CONTENT:
- Waz breaks down the rookies he’s out on for 2024 at their ADP.
- Ian’s must-draft players for 2024.
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The latest fantasy nuggets, silliness, and NFL gossip from our merry band of football nerds:
✍️ Week 2 of the NFL preseason is behind us. Overreactions for fantasy football.
🤔 We saw an interesting WR rotation for the Patriots on Thursday. Are any of these guys targets?
🙀 The Raiders name their Week 1 starter. Honestly surprised.
🏌️ Now here’s a good punishment for finishing last in your league. Classic.
🛏️ Breece Hall on his college roomie. Who is now one of the best QBs in the league.
🤯 This was an absurd throw by Caleb Williams. Big things coming.
💪 Malik Nabers is gonna be a problem…can’t guard that.
🚑️ Bad news on Jaylen Warren. Bummer.
