In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by Underdog Fantasy:
It feels like every year NFL backfields get messier and messier.
This is both a blessing and a curse.
When a messy situation breaks right—like it did with the Miami Dolphins’ backs last year—drafters can stumble on multiple league-winning backs.
On the flip side, a three-way committee in a poor offense can lead to endless fantasy headaches.
Last week, I lamented the whiplash in reports surrounding the Denver backfield—which provides us a wide range of outcomes on either side of the spectrum I just outlined.
Over the weekend, ESPN’s Dan Graziano shed light on another backfield with muddied waters, the Cleveland Browns.
Here’s what we know about the four backs in the mix. Yes, I said four:
- Nick Chubb - Lifting ungodly amounts of weight, impressing at camp, and yet still unlikely to be ready at the start of the season
- Jerome Ford - the lead RB until Chubb is ready
- Pierre Strong - Ford’s backup while Chubb is out
- D’Onta Foreman - Playing the “Kareem Hunt” role aka short-yardage and goal-line back
I’m generally more willing than most to embrace these ambiguous backfields, but this RB room is close to a stay-away situation for me.
Chubb is way too expensive in home leagues (he’s going 87th overall on Yahoo, for example) where he’s likely to clog your bench for a long time.
Ford is too expensive on Underdog (ADP: 128) because you have zero guarantee he’s the starter when it matters the most in the fantasy playoffs.
And even if Ford and Chubb share a baton-passing moment, you’re still going to have to deal with Foreman vulturing high-value TD touches. Woof.
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- Ian Hartiz’s WR Tiers
- Watercooler: Training camp nuggets
WR Tiers: 6 Alphas In Tier 1
by Ian Hartitz
Tier 1: Ballers, shot callers (6)
These guys are incredible real-life football players and the engine of their respective offenses. MAYBE we could nitpick one or two factors, but even then that's probably overthinking things…
- Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb: Fantasy's reigning WR1 has the best combination of elite talent, QB play and projected volume of any player at the position.
- Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill: Responsible for PFF's top two seasons in yards per route run since 2010; nobody has averaged more PPR points per game (21.9) over the past two seasons.
- Bengals WR Ja'Marr Chase: Only Randy Moss (43), Rob Gronkowski (38), and Odell Beckham Jr. (35) have caught more TDs during the first three seasons of their career in the Moss era. There's a reason why Chase is currently the WR4 in career PPR points per game (18) … ever.
- Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown: Top 10 in yards per route run (2.27) and targets per route run (26%) since entering the league in 2021; we're talking about the engine of a Lions passing game that has produced back-to-back fifth-place finishes in total points.
- Vikings WR Justin Jefferson: The QB concerns are valid, but what if Jefferson is so f*cking good at football that it doesn't matter?
- Eagles WR A.J. Brown: Back-to-back WR8 finishes in PPR points per game; perhaps the best is on the way inside a Kellen Moore-led offense expected to utilize faster pace and more pre-snap motion.
Unlock Ian's full set of 2024 fantasy football rankings by signing up for FantasyLife+ today!
🤷 Most likely to deal with some pretty meh QB play: Justin Jefferson
The history of rookie QBs enabling high-end fantasy WRs is, well, not good. The No. 1 fantasy WR in PPR points per game has posted the following production from 41 offenses that have started a rookie QB for at least 10 games in a season since 2010:
- 5/41 finished in the top 12 (12%)
- 13/41 finished in the top 24 (32%)
- Average finish: WR33
- Median finish: WR35
- High: WR7
- Low: WR67
Of course, Justin Jefferson isn't your everyday No. 1 WR. The man has averaged 106 and 107 receiving yards per game over the past two seasons, emerging as the typical frontrunner on count-down lists of the game's very best players at the position.
Overall, only Tyreek Hill has averaged more yards per route run than Jefferson (2.67) since the latter WR entered the league back in 2020. The QB concerns here are real, but MAN is it tough to wrap the mind around fading this sort of ascending talent.
Ultimately, Jefferson should see enough volume to still return top-five goodness in fantasy land with his talent level. While I've usually drafted Lamb, Hill and Chase ahead of him this offseason, you should never be completely out on anyone with a realistic path to achieving a target total starting with a two.
RELATED CONTENT:
- Dwain’s QB Tiers for 2024
- Ian’s RB Tiers for 2024
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The latest fantasy nuggets, silliness, and NFL gossip from our merry band of football nerds:
👀 Sleepers, breakouts, draft strategies and more. Your complete RB guide for 2024.
🤝 ICYMI: An industry expert dropped by to share his QB strategies for 2024. Watch now!
😡 Garrett Wilson and Aaron Rodgers getting into it. Here we go…
✍️ Training camp roundup. Good intel in here.
🤩 Can’t stop, won’t stop. We aren’t leaving drafts without these QBs.
😆 Ja’Lynn Polk did not say this! But it would have been funny if he did…
👀 This Bengals RB taking the majority of the first-team reps. This is big.
🚀 The oft-injured RB about to have a ‘special’ season? Hmmmm.
🤑 Jordan Love and Tua got paid. Congrats.
