In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by Bleacher Nation Fantasy:
Cooper Kupp is set to make his return to action on Thursday vs. the Vikings.
Or is he?
The NFL rumor mill kicked into gear yesterday with Dianna Russini reporting that the Rams are shopping Kupp around.
They are apparently willing to take on a chunk of his 2024 salary, provided they can fetch a second-round pick in return.
On the surface, this makes some sense. The Rams are looking at a lost season at 2-4 and Kupp is 31 years old.
The million-dollar question, of course, is where could he land if they find a buyer?
Ian has us covered with some potential ideas, although Russini poured some cold water on the idea of the Chiefs landing Kupp.
I like the idea of the Bucs as a suitor. Chris Godwin is done for the year and Mike Evans is expected to miss at least three games. Tampa Bay is firmly in the thick of it at 4-3 in a wide-open division, and it would be a shame to let Baker Mayfield’s elite QB play this year be all for naught.
Regardless, it’ll be fascinating to see how this plays out, especially with the Rams playing tomorrow night.
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- Freedman’s Favorite Plays for Week 8 of Fantasy Football
- Watercooler: Week 8 Rankings are live
- Ian’s Manifesto: Is Tua BACK?
Freedman’s Favorites for Week 8
Here are a couple of Matthew Freedman's favorite fantasy plays for Week 8. Check out his full articles and rankings for more.
Jordan Love (Packers) at Jaguars
- Packers: -4.5
- O/U: 49.5
- TT: 27
Last week, I successfully bet the over on Love's passing TD prop. The week before, the same. Whenever the sportsbooks post his passing TD prop this week, I'll probably bet it again and log it in our free Fantasy Life Bet Tracker.
In every game this year, he has hit the over on his prop with two-plus TDs. Last year, he went over 1.5 TDs passing in 11 of 14 games after the Week 6 bye.
The last time Love didn't hit the over on his passing TDs prop was Week 14.
On the season, Love is easily No. 1 with an 8.4% TD rate and three TDs passing per game.
This week, I have Love projected for a league-high 1.9 TDs passing and a 72.1% chance of going over his prop of 1.5, which translates to odds of -257.9 (per our Fantasy Life Odds Calculator).
Given that I bet Love's prop at -200 two weeks ago and -167 last week, I'm evidently high on him in the betting market—and my enthusiasm naturally extends to fantasy. As the prayer goes, "On earth, as it is in heaven."
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Love is No. 2 on the year with 270.2 yards passing per game, and the Jaguars are 1 in most fantasy points allowed to QBs (23.8) and largest fantasy boost allowed to QBs (+7.2)
George Pickens (Steelers) vs. Giants
- Steelers: -6.5
- O/U: 36
- TT: 21.25
After seeing a Week 5 decrease in playing time (65% route rate), Pickens rebounded in Week 6 (85% route rate, 29% target rate, 35% target share), and then in Week 7 he had a season-high 94% route rate with the switch to QB Russell Wilson, who gifted Pickens with 5-111-1 receiving on nine targets—and he could've had an even bigger day, as Wilson just missed him on a second TD. (Sheesh.)
With an explosive 9.9 yards per target for his career and ranking No. 3 this year with a 50% share of air yards, Pickens is the kind of big-play threat who can turn any touch into a long TD, and Wilson—for all his deficiencies—is still the kind of passer whose willingness to attack defenses downfield with multiple moonshots can maximize the upside potential in a player with Pickens' skill set and ability.
The Giants are No. 29 in defensive pass DVOA against No. 1 WRs (28.8%) and could be without CBs Cor'Dale Flott (groin) and Adoree' Jackson (neck).
More of Freedman’s Favorite WRs for Week 8
MORE OF FREEDMAN’S FAVORITES:
- QBs for Week 8:
- RBs for Week 8: Kareem Hunt … workhorse?
- TEs for Week 8:
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The latest analysis and insights from our merry band of football nerds:
🤔 Crushed by injuries? Try this.
📈 Set your lineup early. Fantasy Football rankings for Week 8.
🐏 More big news for the Rams. You love to see it.
😆 Lamar is so good … that he made a Bucs fan flip his fandom!
🐶 A friendly wager between two Chiefs WRs. Uh oh, Xavier.
🚑️ The NFL is reviewing the Godwin injury. Hip drop tackle?
Ian’s Week 8 Manifesto
By Ian Hartitz
And just like that: Week 8 is upon us. Let's break down some ball!
Every week I will be going through 10 key storylines ahead of all the NFL action, focusing on key fantasy-related trends, the week's biggest mismatches, my personal rankings of every game, bold predictions, and much more.
As always: It's a great day to be great.
Tua is BACK. Now what?
Barring any setbacks, Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa will return to the gridiron on Sunday against the Cardinals.
It's hard to understate just how bad "The Greatest Show on Surf" has been to start the 2024 season, but here's a shot:
Points per game:
- 2023 Bryce Young Panthers (13.9)
- 2021 Urban Meyer Jaguars (14.9)
- 2017 winless Browns (14.6)
- 2008 winless Lions (16.8)
- 2024 Dolphins (11.7)
The fantasy results have accordingly been absolutely miserable. Early-round WRs Tyreek Hill (PPR WR46 per game) and Jaylen Waddle (WR62) have been consistent busts, while De'Von Achane went from looking like the best RB in fantasy (RB3 and RB2 in Weeks 1-2) to someone not overly fun to even FLEX in recent weeks.
This brings us to today's bajillion-dollar question: Can the return of Tua simply fix matters for everyone involved?
I'm optimistic. As damning as the last month has been for Mike McDaniel's offensive wizard stock, we still have two solid years of evidence telling us that this is one of the league's most prolific offenses whenever No. 1 is healthy enough to suit up under center. Seriously: The Dolphins posted top-6 numbers in EPA per play and dropback during the 2022-23 seasons while scoring more points than any team other than the Cowboys, 49ers, Lions, Eagles, and Bills. Neither Tyler Huntley, Tim Boyle, nor Skylar Thompson has ever been confused with an even league-average QB, so even something close to 2022-23 levels of efficiency from Tua has the potential to take this group from horrible to at least above-average in a hurry.
The upcoming schedule should help matters as well:
- Week 8 vs. Cardinals: 30th in EPA allowed per dropback
- Week 9 at Bills: 11th
- Week 10 at Rams: 26th
- Week 11 vs. Raiders: 16th
- Week 12 vs. Patriots: 29th
Tua is someone who should abso-lutely be scooped off the waiver wire if he happens to be available in your league, Tyreek is BACK to familiar top-5 treatment at the WR position, Waddle is an upside WR3 at worst, and don't look now, but Achane could get back to resembling the sort of league-winning asset managers thought they had after the first two weeks of the season.
Seriously: Achane's Week 7 utilization coming off the bye was borderline erotic despite the entire Miami backfield being healthy.
Hell, maybe even Jonnu Smith builds off his TE2 finish and season-high 78% route rate. The possibilities are endless ahead of their Week 8 matchup with the Cardinals' 24th-ranked scoring defense.
It's crazy how much a simple change at QB can change the trajectory for everyone involved, ya know?
Trends, Bold Predictions, and More For Week 8
