Anthony Richardson, Justin Jefferson Fantasy Football Outlook: Week 12 Sheesh Report
- Anthony Richardson didn't have as bad of a Sunday as you think
- Unrealized air yards are a helluva drug
- I could have made that throw! (Editor's note: No you couldn't)
- The Eagles RB special: Down at the 1-yard line, and no TD
- TD! Wait: Flag.
- Sorry, Justin Jefferson fantasy managers
- Was that interception REALLY the QB's fault?
Ian Hartitz delivers the Week 12 Sheesh Report, featuring the most frustrating plays and players impacting fantasy football.
Week 12 has come and gone. We saw 13 NFL games that brought joy, laughs, and tears to football fans and, of course, fantasy football faithful.
Today, we’ll focus on the latter sadness and break down just how close some came to achieving fantasy football glory. Critics might call this unnecessary cruelty, while supporters could claim it helps with understanding the full context of what exactly happened last week.
Either way: Welcome to the Sheesh Report.
What follows is a breakdown of all the tilting, near-miss moments from last week that left fantasy managers and fans alike saying, "Sheesh!" I’ve watched hours of film and combed play-by-play data to help determine instances when:
- Pass catchers could have scored or picked up big yardage with a more accurate pass
- Pass catchers did receive an accurate pass that should have resulted in a score or big gain, but the ball was dropped
- Ball carriers managed to get all the way to the 1-yard line, but didn’t score
- Players scored or picked up big yardage, but the play was nullified by a penalty
- Other random shit that managed to tilt fantasy football managers of all shapes and sizes
Let's kick things off with an example of the boxscore not always matching what actually went down on the field …
Anthony Richardson didn't have as bad of a Sunday as you think
The Colts suffered a rough 24-6 defeat at the hands of the Lions on Sunday, leading many to once again put most of the blame at the feet—er arm—of QB Anthony Richardson.
And maybe it was his fault? I mean, Richardson did complete just 11 of 28 passes (39.3%) with zero scores on the afternoon. Can a boxscore REALLY lie that much?
Answer: Yes.
While not all of those aforementioned penalties were complete phonies, I would confidently use the phrase ticky tack to at least describe Richardson's rather awesome 4th-down conversion to Josh Downs. Throw in the dropped TD by Kylen Granson and failure by Ashton Dulin to get his second foot down inbounds on a potential 40-plus-yard gain down the sideline, and it's easy to envision Richardson's final stat line including an additional 70-plus yards and a score.
That said: Richardson wasn't perfect. You can judge all his incompletions for yourself if you wish (the second miss in the attached video could have been a LONG house call for Mr. Alec Pierce).
Still, as a society, we need to be better than boxscore scouting completion percentages as the whole story: Richardson was PFF's fifth-highest graded passer of Week 12 after all.
This realization won't make Richardson's fantasy managers feel much better about his Week 12 dud, but he wasn't the only one with some yards left on the field.
Unrealized air yards are a helluva drug
We can help quantify sheeshy missed downfield opportunities using "unrealized air yards," which are derived by subtracting yards after the catch from every player’s receiving yards total before taking the difference with total air yards to pinpoint exactly how much opportunity through the air (not including potential YAC) a player failed to come down with for one reason or another.
We're essentially measuring the total distance of everyone's incomplete targets. A high number indicates a player had lots of fantasy-friendly opportunities, but didn't capitalize on them for one reason or another. Cool? Cool.
ANYWAY: Eight players racked up at least 65 unrealized air yards in Week 12:
- Chargers WR Joshua Palmer (164)
- Steelers WR George Pickens (95)
- Bears WR Rome Odunze (95)
- Packers WR Christian Watson (91)
- Colts WR Alec Pierce (87)
- Titans WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (72)
- Broncos WR Troy Franklin (67)
- Bears WR Keenan Allen (67)
- Patriots WR Kayshon Boutte (66)
Of course, sometimes these unrealized air yards were far more the fault of the WR than the QB. Look no further than Mr. Watson.
The Butterfingers Police: Dropped touchdowns
While drops are a somewhat subjective stat, you know one when you see one.
Like Packers WR Christian Watson, who suffered one of the worst drops you'll ever see on what coulda, shoulda, woulda been a 49-yard TD.
In addition to Watson, I'm inclined to put some blame on the likes of Panthers TE Tommy Tremble (11), Colts TE Drew Ogletree (11), and Browns TE David Njoku (2) for costing their respective squads 6 points. Additionally, Browns TE Jordan Akins looked to have enough open field to potentially rumble in from 38 yards out, but alas: Dropped.
There was also Rams WR Puka Nacua, who did indeed drop a potential 34-yard TD, but managed to draw an (iffy) DPI penalty to make it a moot point for the Rams, albeit not fantasy manager.
Sheeshy stuff indeed—almost as bad as when a missed TD was more so the QB's fault.
I could have made that throw! (Editor's note: No you couldn't)
I looked at every incomplete pass that was thrown at least 10 yards downfield and/or into the end zone to get an idea of who just missed out on some big plays last week—and there were quite a few instances that stuck out:
- Colts WR Alec Pierce (potential 88-yard TD overthrown)
- Chiefs WR Xavier Worthy (62, but not a gimme)
- Broncos WR Troy Franklin (52)
- Commanders WR Terry McLaurin (47)
- Rams WR Demarcus Robinson (31, but Stafford was under some pressure)
- Steelers WR George Pickens (27, but could argue he shouldn't have flattened out the route)
- Bears WR Rome Odunze (19)
- Dolphins RB De'Von Achane (24, but he caught a TD later on the same drive so it's all good)
- Dolphins WR Jaylen Waddle (3)
- Riders WR Jakobi Meyers (1)
This category was certainly a bit subjective—our next one not so much.
The Eagles RB special: Down at the 1-yard line, and no TD
Getting all the way to the 1-yard line but failing to score a TD is objectively a sheeshy feeling—particularly when fantasy managers are forced to watch someone else vulture away the score that was SO CLOSE to belonging to them.
Here’s the full list of Week 12’s players who managed to get the football within three feet of the goal line, but not quite across the plane, and ultimately didn’t score later on the same drive:
- Buccaneers RB Bucky Irving (x2)
- Vikings RB Aaron Jones (lost fumble)
- Panthers RB Chuba Hubbard
- Bears RB Roschon Johnson
- Seahawks RB Zach Charbonnet
- Buccaneers RB Sean Tucker (fumbled)
- Raiders WR Tre Tucker
- Packers TE Tucker Kraft
- Vikings TE Johnny Mundt
- Giants QB Tommy DeVito
Pretty much the only thing more sheeshy than this is when the player actually does score a TD … only for the points to come right back off the scoreboard.
TD! Wait: Flag.
TDs usually get nullified by a penalty for a good reason, but that doesn’t make the rollercoaster of adrenaline any less sheeshful for fantasy managers to deal with.
- Vikings WR Justin Jefferson (40): Broke wide open down the right sideline for 6 points … because teammate Brandon Powell was a bit too obvious while setting an (illegal) pick on Jefferson's coverage defender. A warranted sheesh, but a sheesh nevertheless.
- Texans WR Nico Collins (33): Collins took a dig over the middle 33 yards to the house on the back of some ever-impressive YAC ability, but there was just one problem: Both Tank Dell and Joe Mixon were both moving at the snap, so fantasy managers were left sheeshing. Collins also had a 77-yard TD nullified last week; he would be THE WR1 in PPR points since returning from injury had both (fairly meaningless to the actual play) penalties not occurred.
- Cardinals WR Michael Wilson (7): Hauled in a short score after the Seahawks failed to carry his crossing route across the formation. Too bad Cardinals LT Parris Johnson was (rightfully) called for holding, leading to the score being nullified.
- Ravens RB Derrick Henry (5): His 12-game TD streak is over thanks to an absolutely preventable illegal formation penalty. Alas, Henry's fantasy managers were forced to watch the short TD come off the board … followed by Lamar Jackson scampering into the end zone with no problem at all. Sheesh.
Additionally, Colts WR Josh Downs (30-yard gain, 21), Commanders WR Dyami Brown (24), Colts TE Kylen Granson (21), Chiefs WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (20), Colts RB Jonathan Taylor (19), Patriots RB Rhamondre Stevenson (19), Eagles QB Jalen Hurts (18), Buccaneers TE Cade Otton (17), Ravens WR Nelson Agholor (17), Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb (17), and Cardinals RB James Conner (15) all had explosive plays nullified for one reason or another.
Also note 49ers WR Deebo Samuel has an 87-yard kick return to the Packers' 8-yard line wiped away on a (questionable) hold. No fantasy points would have been awarded anyway, but hey, it was a cool play!
Sadly, we're not done talking about the Vikings' No. 1 WR just yet.
Sorry, Justin Jefferson fantasy managers
Defensive pass interferences can be finicky and don’t always occur in instances when the targeted receiver would have FOR SURE made the catch.
That said: They are very annoying for fantasy managers to deal with when the result could’ve, should’ve, would’ve been a chunk gain—and maybe even a TD.
Overall, seven players gained at least 20 yards courtesy of DPI penalties in Week 12:
- Vikings WR Justin Jefferson (45)
- Rams WR Puka Nacua (31)
- Panthers WR Adam Thielen (28)
- Cowboys WR Jalen Tolbert (24)
- Buccaneers WR Mike Evans (22)
- Raiders WR Jakobi Meyers (22)
- Seahawks WR Tyler Lockett (20)
Jefferson now has 126 such yards on the season. Only Commanders WR Noah Brown (158) has more. Sheesh.
Our last category of sheesh centers around determining which QBs perhaps deserve some slack for their on-paper turnovers …
Was that interception REALLY the QB's fault?
From pressure, to a bad route, to an essential arm punt on 3rd and forever: There are quite a few reasons why any given interception might not necessarily be the QB's fault, even if that context isn't provided in the boxscore.
Good news for you, a scholar: Our Fantasy Life Sheesh Experts (just me, actually) have looked closely at each and every interception thrown in Week 12 to get an idea of which QBs probably deserve a bit of slack despite technically committing a turnover.
Specifically:
- Commanders QB Jayden Daniels (x2): The first INT was dropped by Brian Robinson on a screen that should have been blown up instead of picked off, while the second was on a desperate Hail Mary at the end of regulation. Thus, it's tough to really blame Daniels for either.
- Texans QB C.J. Stroud: It's possible Stroud was in the wrong here—again I am NOT a doctor—but it's clear either way that he and John Metchie were not on the same page. Given the wide-open field, it'd make sense if Metchie was supposed to keep running upfield … which was where Stroud threw the pass.
- Raiders QB Gardner Minshew: Another instance where it sure looked like the receiver and QB simply weren't on the same page. Pressure in Minshew's face didn't help, but yeah: The ball was released before Jakobi Meyers broke off his route, so perhaps things wouldn't have turned out so bad if he had stayed up the seam. I guess we'll never know.
- 49ers QB Brandon Allen: WR Deebo Samuel was officially charged with a drop on Allen's lone INT of the day. It was hardly a routine pitch-and-catch, although the pass did admittedly hit both of Deebo's hands.
On the other side of things, Allen, Jordan Love, Sam Darnold, Tua Tagovailoa, Tommy DeVito, and Caleb Williams were lucky to not register an extra turnover, as PFF deemed each to have an incomplete pass that was actually a dropped INT. The league leaders in dropped INTs are Matthew Stafford (x6), Jameis Winston (x5), and Baker Mayfield (x5).
I think I speak for all of us when I say for one last time: Sheesh.
Thanks for stopping by. We're on to Week 13.