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Are You Ready To Get Hurt Again?

by Peter Overzet

2 months ago

In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by Sleeper:

I’ve had my heart broken by Kyle Pitts more than a few times.

I chased him up draft boards in three consecutive seasons, only to watch injuries, poor QB play, and Arthur Smith massacre his fantasy value.

And you aren’t going to believe this (note: you are), but I’m about to do it again…

Sure, it was stubborn to martingale Pitts in 2022 and 2023 when his offensive environment remained unchanged, but things could not be more different this year.

The Falcons performed a bigger 180 than any team in the entire league this offseason by swapping out Arthur Smith and Desmond Ridder with new OC Zac Robinson (Sean McVay disciple) and Kirk Cousins (a disciple of getting his top pass catchers the ball).

But more importantly, 1) Pitts is fully healthy and 2) he was the most impressive Falcons pass catcher at camp, according to this Falcons reporter.

I can hear your skepticism through the screen. I get it. The first cut is the deepest, but it’s time to love again…

What else is in today’s newsletter?

Freedman’s Favorites: RB Anchors primed for immediate success
Ian’s Manifesto: Welcome to the Anthony Richardson Experience
Watercooler: Bengals starting RB?

Rankings, Projections, Start/Sit & More!

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Freedman’s Favorites, Week 1

Here are a couple of Matthew Freedman's favorite fantasy plays for Week 1. Check out his full article and rankings for more.

Josh Allen (Bills) vs. Cardinals

Bills: -6
O/U: 48.5
TT: 27.25

Last year didn't go as planned for Josh Allen, who lost OC Ken Dorsey (dismissed) after Week 10 and finished the season No. 2 with 18 INTs.

And yet Allen still balled out, ranking No. 3 in QBR (69.7, per ESPN) and No. 4 in composite EPA + CPOE (0.145, per RBs Don’t Matter). For the season, he was the No. 1 fantasy producer (24.2 FPPG). He was still very much his usual productive self.

In just nine games with new OC Joe Brady last year, Allen rushed for 424 yards and had a 19% designed-rush rate (per our industry-leading Fantasy Life Utilization Report). I have an over position on Allen's season-long prop of 480.5 rushing yards logged in our free Fantasy Life Bet Tracker.

Subscribe to the Betting Life Newsletter for daily guidance, best bets, and more.

Last year the Cardinals were No. 32 in defensive dropback SR (50.1%), and this year they're being drafted as the No. 32 fantasy defense in high-stakes leagues (per our Fantasy Life ADP Tool).

The Bills lead all teams this week with their implied total (27.25).

Breece Hall (Jets) at 49ers

Jets: +3.5
O/U: 43.5
TT: 20

Last year Breece Hall had a breakout 1,585-yard, nine-TD campaign after suffering a season-ending knee injury as a rookie. He was especially dynamic after ramping up his usage in the first month, racking up 1,333 scrimmage yards, nine TDs, and a two-point conversion on 191 carries and 85 targets in his final 13 games.

With his pass-catching skill set and elevated TD potential in a revitalized offense led by QB Aaron Rodgers, Hall could be this year's version of 2020 Alvin Kamara.

The 49ers last season were No. 30 in defensive rush SR (42.3%), and their defensive line has probably gotten worse this offseason with the departures of DTs Arik Armstead and Javon Kinlaw and EDGEs Chase Young, Clelin Ferrell, and Randy Gregory.

Kenneth Walker (Seahawks) vs. Broncos

Seahawks: -6
O/U: 42
TT: 24

Kenneth Walker—"Ken" to his friends, "Kenny" if ya feelin' nasty—is coming off back-to-back seasons with 1,150-plus scrimmage yards and 9 TDs, and now he could be emphasized in an uptempo system under new OC Ryan Grubb.

With his combination of size (211 lbs.) and speed (4.38-second 40-yard dash), Walker is a true home run threat every time he touches the ball.

Last year the Broncos were No. 31 in defensive rush DVOA (4.9%), and I don't see why they should be significantly better against the run this year.

As a home favorite of more than a field goal, Walker could dominate touches in the second half of this game.

More Week 1 Favorites

Sleeper Picks

Put your knowledge to the test on every game by picking whether your favorite, or least favorite, players will have more or less than their projected stats each week!

If you think you have what it takes, download the Sleeper app and use the code FANTASYLIFE to get up to a $100 match on your first deposit!

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Fantasy Football Storylines, Trends, and Bold Predictions to Watch in Week 1

by Ian Hartitz

Week 1 is finally here–let's break down some ball!

Every week I will be going through 10 key storylines ahead of all the NFL action, focusing on key fantasy-related trends, the week's biggest mismatches, my personal rankings of every game, bold predictions, and much more.

As always: It's a great day to be great.

1. The Anthony Richardson experience

The second-year talent only played four games in 2023, but man oh man were they spectacular … in fantasy land. Overall, Richardson ripped off 20.9 and 29.6 fantasy points in his only two full starts, and he also reached 17.7 points in Week 2 vs. the Texans … on just 18 snaps!

That said: Richardson was a bit uneven as a passer to put it nicely. To put it meanly? He sucked. His 61.7% completion percentage ranked 44th among 49 QBs, and his completion percentage OVER expected was a brutal -7.7%–only P.J. Walker, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, Taylor Heinicke, and Trevor Siemian were worse.

Fans were treated to more of the same during Richardon's lone extended preseason appearance. The initial TD drive was cool, but his ensuing pick-six and three punts were not. 6.14 yards per attempt against mostly Bengals backups didn't instill a bunch of confidence in fantasy faithful, and accordingly, his average draft position (ADP) dropped by nearly a full round (56.5 to 65.7) from August 1 to present day over at FFPC.

Here's the thing: Richardson doesn't need to be anything close to a good NFL passer to be a great fantasy football QB.

Just look at the success of some of the league's very worst passers in Tim Tebow (QB8 in Weeks 7-17, 2011) and Taysom Hill (QB6 Weeks 11-14, 2020, and QB7 in Weeks 13-15, 2021) back in the day. Each of the top three highest-scoring fantasy QBs from last season racked up at least 30% of their production on the ground–-Richardson was at 48%!

Colts head coach Shane Steichen likened the idea of limiting Richardon's rushing volume to telling Steph Curry to shoot fewer 3-pointers, so it's safe to say that facet of his game isn't going anywhere inside an offense led by the same guy who helped popularize the tush push. His Week 1 matchup against the Texans isn't an easy one, but we simply don't have a history of QBs who can push for double-digit carries per game busting in fantasy land.

If you drafted Richardson, you're starting him, and don't be surprised if the 22-year-old QB finds the end zone on the ground at least once against a Houston defense that allowed a league-high seven rushing scores to opposing signal-callers last season (including two to Richardson himself).

Our Week 1 Fantasy Football Rankings are LIVE! Check them out before setting your first lineups of the season!

Nine More Week 1 Storylines to Follow