Bench Caleb Williams? Other QB Situations to Monitor
In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by Guillotine Leagues:
Dolphins/Rams didn’t quite feature the fireworks we hope for on MNF, but it did have:
1) A sick Cooper Kupp one-handed catch
2) Kyren Williams giving Kader Kohou a wet willie?
This league truly has it all, including constant QB drama.
Here are four situations to monitor …
Caleb Williams. Despite rumors over internal debates, Bears HC Matt Eberflus says Caleb will remain the starter. That’s the right choice, but the coaching staff is what actually needs to be cleaned out.
Daniel Jones: Brian Daboll would not commit to Dimes as his starter after his rough outing in Germany. At this point, I wouldn’t mind seeing if Drew Lock could facilitate some better games for Malik Nabers.
Bryce Young: The Panthers are headed into the bye, but Dave Canales is staying tight-lipped on who will start at QB. I feel like you have to keep rolling with Young at this point.
Trevor Lawrence: Good news on the surgery rumors, but Doug Pederson didn’t give us much to work with on this update. It’s a tough matchup on the road in Detroit for either TLaw or Mac Jones.
Read on for a jam-packed newsletter, featuring the Utilization Report, Week 11 waiver adds, and Ian’s Sheesh Report.
What else is in today’s newsletter?
Dwain’s Utilization Report: CMC is back
Kendall Valenzuela’s Week 11 Waiver Wire Adds
Watercooler: Injury Updates
Ian Hartitz’s Sheesh Report from Week 10
Stat of the Day: A New RB1 in Cincy
Week 11 Utilization Report
Christian McCaffrey played the Christian McCaffrey role.
It has been a brutal nine weeks for CMC managers, but if you managed to remain within striking distance in your league, you just got a major reinforcement. The 49ers wasted zero time ramping up McCaffrey's workload, feeding him 89% of the snaps.
The 28-year-old posted an 8.7 Utilization Score and registered 16.7 fantasy points, leading the backfield in rushing attempts (68%), route participation (79%), and targets (21%).
Those are elite marks across the board, and CMC is going to challenge for the RB1 overall rank for the rest of the season. Because of his diverse role, he is matchup-proof and offers 25-point-per-game upside in an offense about to find its groove.
McCaffrey UPGRADES to high-end RB1 territory.
George Pickens has been a WR1 with Russell Wilson.
Pickens has an 8.4 Utilization Score, averaging 18 fantasy points in three games with Wilson at the helm. While his targets haven't increased (seven per game), the quality of his targets has improved dramatically. Wilson has unlocked the vertical and red-zone elements of Pickens' game.
Per game with Justin Fields: 88 air yards (12.6 aDOT), 0.5 end-zone targets
Per game with Russell Wilson: 116 air yards (16.6 aDOT), 1.7 end-zone targets
Pickens' fantasy points per game have skyrocketed by 7.9 points per game with Wilson. This number would be EVEN HIGHER if not for a nullified 11-yard TD and a second TD catch where he couldn't quite get his second foot down in Week 8.
Utilization Score with Wilson (8.4) historical comps:
WR1 to 6: 14%
WR7 to 12: 64%
WR13 to 18: 21%
It would be preferable for Pickens to be in the 9-to-10-target per-game range, but that probably won't happen, given the Steelers' run-first orientation. Even with Wilson at the helm, the team has been staunch supporters of running the damn ball with a -12% dropback rate over expectation (DBOE).
That makes his rest-of-season runout extremely dependent on his connection with Wilson remaining red-hot. However, the data tells us we are likely getting a midrange WR2 at worst, which is a big positive.
Pickens UPGRADES to high-end WR2 status and offers midrange WR1 upside.
More Utilization Report Takeaways
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Week 11 Waiver Wire Pickups
Ricky Pearsall, WR, 49ers (37% rostered)
This offense is loaded with offensive weapons, and it may be hard to predict when to start Ricky Pearsall every single week, but if you are hit with some tough decisions due to the bye weeks then Pearsall is a solid target on the waiver wire this week. He notched 17.3 fantasy points and a touchdown in Sunday's matchup against the Buccaneers, but had a smaller role compared to Jauan Jennings. Pearsall finished with a 73% route participation and 18% target share, but could be a boom-bust WR4 in this offense. We all know the wide receiver injuries have been so brutal, so it's understandable to need a little magic from Pearsall coming up.
Russell Wilson, QB, Steelers (22% rostered)
The Russell Wilson moon ball was back and he is now back on our waiver wire list! He completed 14 of 28 passes for 195 yards with 3 touchdowns and 1 interception and he looked much better in the second half of this game.
You can tell that his connection with George Pickens is continuing to get stronger, and the team did add another weapon in Mike Williams, who came down with a touchdown on his first catch with the Steelers. Wilson has averaged 19.3 fantasy points per game this season and is a solid streamer in Week 11 when the Steelers face the Ravens at home.
AROUND THE WATERCOOLER
The latest fantasy nuggets, silliness, and NFL gossip from our merry band of football nerds:
📰 Is CeeDee Lamb cooked? Ian, Chris, and Charch run through 10 Fantasy Football Headlines.
📣 Chuba Hubbard a league winner? Ian and Charch weigh in.
🚑️ Injury updates. Keon Coleman, Aaron Jones, Chris Olave, Sam LaPorta.
🤫 An RB to sneak through on waivers this week. He was electric last year.
❓Bye weeks and injuries have you scrambling? The Fantasy Life Waiver Wire Tool is here to help.
🪓 The Guillotine chop celly on MNF! Love to see it.
🏀 One more rebound! LeBron James answers this fan’s wish.
Week 10 Sheesh Report: Alvin Kamara, Through The Fingertips
by Ian Hartitz
Alvin Kamara … SHEESH
The Saints' longtime stud RB had a perfectly solid afternoon at the office last Sunday. Overall, Kamara's 109 total yards marked the seventh time he's eclipsed the century mark in 10 tries this season; the 29-year-old veteran has by all accounts proved to still very much be a great football player in the year 2024.
That said, it sure would have been a lot cooler if he had hauled in this game-clinching 56-yard TD.
The Saints still won, but I'm willing to guess fantasy managers and anytime-TD bettors let out a few select four-letter words upon seeing this one. Good things readers of this column already know there's an easy child- and public-proof way of expressing displeasure at any given tilting football moment: Just say, "Sheesh!"
Of course, Kamara wasn't the only player to let six points slide through their fingertips last week.
The Butterfingers Police: Dropped touchdowns
While drops are a somewhat subjective stat, you know one when you see one, and we, unfortunately, had to watch the following eight players let a good-enough potential TD bounce off their hands and fall incomplete in Week 10:
Saints RB Alvin Kamara (56)
Chargers TE Will Dissly (19)
Colts WR Josh Downs (9)
Ravens WR Rashod Bateman (5, but caught a TD on the next play)
Chargers TE Hayden Hurst (5)
Steelers WR Calvin Austin (3)
Commanders WR Dyami Brown (3)
Cardinals TE Trey McBride (1)
Additionally, Jets WR Davante Adams was officially charged with a drop on this potential 3-yard TD, but further replay sure seemed to show the pass was deflected before it got to him. An argument could also be made for Panthers WR Jalen Coker (5); I'm more of the opinion the incompletion was more of a great defensive play than a bad drop.
And then there was Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb, who was the latest victim of Jerry Jones' ongoing perplexing decision to not cover up the incredibly inconvenient sun glare that regularly blinds players during the late-afternoon hours.
Dropped TDs, nullified scores, and more sheeshy moments from Week 10
Stat of The Day 11/12: A Bengals Bellcow RB
Brown wasn’t super-productive with his carries in Week 10, racking up just 42 yards on 13 carries. That said, his role was absolutely elite. He played on the third-highest percentage of his team’s snaps at the RB position in Week 10, trailing only Chuba Hubbard and Christian McCaffrey.
Brown was also absolutely dominant as a pass catcher. He had 11 targets, which he turned into 9 catches for 52 yards. Add in a rushing touchdown, and he ultimately finished with 23.5 PPR points. That was the third-highest mark at the RB position.
There was some concern about what Brown’s role would look like following the trade for Khalil Herbert, but the early results are extremely promising. Herbert fumbled on his first game action, and while he might earn some additional touches moving forward, Brown appears to be the team’s locked-in top running back.
Brown can ultimately be treated like an RB1 for fantasy purposes moving forward. Feel free to fire him up with confidence, and if opposing fantasy managers aren’t valuing him properly, be aggressive in targeting him in the trade market.
