In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by Paramount+:
They tried to tell us it wasn’t a big deal.
CMC will play in the opener!
He could have played if it were a playoff game!
IR is definitely not an option!
But the edifice all came crumbling down yesterday with the Niners finally ditching the facade and placing CMC on the IR with calf soreness and Achilles tendinitis.
As always, we are here to help you pick up the pieces and get you ready for all of your Week 2 lineup decisions.
* Jordan Mason is our RB9 on the week and a must-start in all formats. If you got ‘em, you are starting him.
*WRs expected to play today: Jameson Williams (ankle), Jayden Reed (calf/shin), Josh Palmer (knee)
It’s really hard to sit either JaMo or Reed after how explosive they looked in Week 1. If you have another Tier 4 WR, feel free to shy away from Palmer in a game with a 43.5 total.
*Game-Time Decisions: Keenan Allen (heel), Rome Odunze (knee), A.J. Brown (hamstring), Josh Downs (high-ankle)
For late-breaking news, check out our inactives page
These are tricky ones. Not only are the Bears duo and AJB game-time decisions, but their games aren’t until SNF (CHI/HOU) and MNF (ATL/PHI).
It really doesn’t sound like AJB is going to play, so I would rather start a better option today than rely on a last-minute swap to Jahan Dotson tomorrow.
As for the Bears WRs, Schefter said “Keenan will test it pregame and if he plays, could be used more sparingly than usual; Odunze is tracking to play vs. the Texans, per sources.”
Keenan is notorious for playing on limited practices, so I’m inclined to think he goes. Still, it’s worth having a backup plan (maybe Darnell Mooney?).
For more injury news, including updates on Tua, Puka Nacua, and Hollywood Brown, check out the Watercooler.
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- James McCool’s Week 2 DFS Advice
- Watercooler: Injury updates
Week 2 NFL DFS Plays
- by James McCool
The first full DFS slate is officially in the books, and Week 1 gave us plenty to reflect on while confirming much of what we already knew.
This week, I have the advantage of various Week 1 "eye tests" and metrics to guide me when providing my top stack, value picks, GPP plays, and fades.
Our NFL DFS Projections and DFS Pick'Em Tool are also great resources; if you're interested in college DFS, we have projections available here.
Top NFL DFS Stack on DraftKings
Kansas City Chiefs
After a strong 2023 season, the Chiefs came out firing on all cylinders in their first game in 2024, scoring 27 points with three touchdowns in just 26 minutes of possession.
The point of time of possession is often overlooked, but it can be a strong indicator of a team's upside. The Chiefs finished that game with a DBOE of 4.5%, which inspires confidence that they are still willing to be pass-heavy, even with the league trending toward more running volume with the recent two-high safety focus. The Chiefs are currently projected for 26.75 fantasy points and 2.60 touchdowns.
The models at Paydirt DFS show that Kansas City is a priority simply off medians; they have the top two highest median 3-man combos on the slate at 51.24 points and 51.06 points, respectively.
Those two stacks, which are Patrick Mahomes/Rashee Rice and a swap of Travis Kelce/Xavier Worthy, cost around $20k in salary on DraftKings while providing a very strong base expectation to build around.
Not pictured here is the third variation of Kansas City, Mahomes/Worthy/Kelce, and projected for 47.66 points. While that is adequate, there is a clear drop in value from Rashee Rice-oriented builds.
Many people may be down on Kelce, and that's a fair stance. He had just 15% of the targets and 16% of the air yards in the opener, with a Utilization Score of just 6.1.
In 2023, Kelce finished with a Utilization Score of 9.1 and only had a handful of weeks below 7.5, which is a bit concerning. That said, if he shows lower ownership this week, I think he makes for a terrific focal point in Kansas City stacks, as elite TEs are some of the most valuable options based on positional scarcity.
Top Week 2 NFL DFS Value Plays
RB: Jordan Mason, 49ers
It's no secret that Jordan Mason is in a terrific spot with Christian McCaffrey missing more time. He currently projects for 15.31 fantasy points and has a price tag of just $5,200 on DraftKings.
In the simulations over at PayDirt, he finishes with 20+ fantasy points 16.30% of the time and is a top-10 finisher at the position 39.70% of the time.
The matchup with Minnesota is probably neutral, but considering San Francisco is once again the healthy favorite, it's a spot that we shouldn't shy away from. He's a no-brainer option at the position so long as Christian McCaffrey is out.
WR: Rashid Shaheed, Saints
Whereas Jordan Mason is likely to carry heavy ownership, this value play carries very low ownership! Rashid Shaheed currently projects for about 2% ownership across formats and carries a strong projection for his pricetag.
His salary is $4,600, a threshold usually reserved for WR3s and weak WR2s, but his median expectation is 13.48 fantasy points. This information means he has a 22.60% chance of hitting 4 times his salary, the top indicator of value in the models.
He had strong baselines from Week 1 with 22% of the targets and 46% of the air yards, leading to a Utilization Score of 6.1, which typically translates to an average of around 13 fantasy points per game. He's a strong option in all formats, especially in top-heavy GPPs.
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1:00pm Kick-Off
- San Francisco at Minnesota
- Las Vegas at Baltimore
- NY Jets at Tennessee
- Cleveland at Jacksonville
4:05pm Kick-Off
- Cincinnati at Kansas City
- Pittsburgh at Denver
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The latest fantasy nuggets, silliness, and NFL gossip from our merry band of football nerds:
🚁 The WR going for 100+ and 2 TDs today. The ‘chopper has spoken.
🤑 The best Week 2 NFL prop bets. All the goodies here.
⌛️ An update on Ja’Marr Chase wanting a new deal. On the back burner?
😆 The college QB who is obsessed with Patrick Mahomes…says he’s not?!
🙏 Tua scheduled to meet with neurologists this week. Updates from Mike McDaniel.
😡 Puka could miss significant time. Brutal. And Hollywood Brown too.
