Bold predictions make the fantasy football world go round. Life is too short to be timid, and it's always a great day to be great – so let's ctrl+B some bold predictions for fantasy football ahead of the 2024 season!

Joe Mixon out-scores Derrick Henry in PPR scoring

I recently got Mixon for $14 in an auction draft that saw Henry go for $40. Available two full rounds later on Sleeper and Yahoo, the ex-Bengal is being slept on despite being set up to work as a legit workhorse inside of a Texans offense fully expected to light up the scoreboard this season.

Fantasy Life Projections give Henry the slight edge in total touches (275 vs. 273), but Mixon's touches should be a bit more valuable considering his edge in targets (52 vs. 29). Heightened efficiency doesn't matter as much as you think it does in fantasy land; someone averaging 5 yards per carry only earns an extra 10 fantasy points over someone at 4 yards per carry over the course of 100 rush attempts after all.

Mixon is the league's only RB to finish as a top-12 producer in PPR points per game in each of the past three seasons; don't be surprised if the more pass-friendly RB in a similar high-upside scoring attack manages to rack up more fantasy points than King Henry.

James Conner finishes as a top-five RB in PPR points per game

Death, taxes, Conner smashing his preseason fantasy football ADP:

  • 2021: RB35 ADP, RB8 finish
  • 2022: RB15 ADP, RB9 finish
  • 2023: RB25 ADP, RB13 finish 

A reigning top-five RB in yards after contact, missed tackles forced, and explosive runs per carry, Conner is certifiably good at football and profiles as the clear-cut workhorse inside a Cardinals offense that should be something close to an above-average group with a fully healthy Kyler Murray under center.

While Father Time comes for everyone at some point, Conner is being set up with a role that is awfully similar to Jonathan Taylor and Saquon Barkley, but without a dual-threat QB expected to steal as many goal-line rush attempts.

Regularly available in Rounds 6-7 on ESPN, Yahoo, and Sleeper, I LOVE Conner in zero/hero-RB builds that focus on WR and elite onesies in the earlier rounds.

Malik Nabers out-scores Marvin Harrison Jr. in PPR scoring

“But Ian, Nabers is catching passes from Daniel Jones and Marv has Kyler Murray. What are you talking about, man?”

Look, I believe Kyler is the better NFL QB than Jones. He's had higher highs and the rushing upside clears the artist known as Vanilla Vick. If I'm running an NFL franchise, give me Murray 10 times out of 10.

And yet, the passing numbers from the past two seasons don't exactly back up the notion that Harrison is dealing with a considerably better option under center.

  • EPA/drop back: Jones (+0.026), Murray (+0.029)
  • Completion percentage over expected: Jones (+1.8%), Murray (-1.4%)
  • PFF pass grade: Jones (66.9), Murray (66.1)
  • Yards per attempt: Jones (6.5), Murray (6.3)
  • Passer rating: Jones (87.0), Murray (88.1)

Feel free to still give Marv the edge in the ever-important QB play facet of evaluating WRs, but is that margin large enough to make up for the potentially large target discrepancy at hand? Yes, both rookies are the clear-cut No. 1 WR in their offense. Also yes, there is nobody in Arizona with the ability to demand targets at the same level as stud Cardinals TE Trey McBride. 

I won't fault anyone who believes Harrison is better at football than Nabers; just realize the most plugged draft pundits out there told us all offseason that plenty of NFL teams believed the LSU product was the superior prospect.

Not only is the multi-round difference in ADP between the two studs unwarranted, but I'd argue Nabers is set up to out-produce the artist known as Maserati Marv thanks to his superior target ceiling inside what could very well be a better-schemed offense.

Deshaun Watson returns low-end QB1 fantasy production

Consistently priced outside the top-20 QBs in fantasy land, Watson has largely been written off after working as anyone's idea of a bad real-life QB during his 12 games in Cleveland over the past two seasons. 

And yet, that hasn't stopped Watson from still putting together some halfway decent fantasy numbers. Rushing upside remains a helluva drug at the QB position in fantasy land, and the ex-Texans veteran accordingly has managed to put up more consistent high-end numbers than some truly notable names:

Percentage of starts to finish as a top-12 fantasy QB over the last two seasons:

Watson still ranks just 18th in that rate among 42 QBs with 10-plus starts over the past two seasons; it's not like he's been a fantasy star in Cleveland. Still, this feels like the floor, while the ceiling remains sky-high: Watson somehow remains one of just four QBs in NFL history (min. 16 starts) to average at least 20 fantasy points per game for their career.

The 2024 Browns look poised to throw the ball more than ever without the services of Nick Chubb (knee, PUP) for at least the first portion of the season; don't be surprised if Watson's still-solid rushing upside helps produce some fairly solid fantasy numbers, even if the overall returns are still a far cry from what we saw in Houston back in the day.

Terry McLaurin clears 1,400 yards and finishes as a WR1

McLaurin is this generation's Allen Robinson: An incredibly talented receiver sadly forced to play with one mediocre QB after another.

Credit to McLaurin for rolling with the punches and ripping off four consecutive seasons with 1,000-plus yards, but 25 TDs in five years reflects the reality that this has hardly been an overly fantasy-friendly environment:

  • 2019: 13.7 PPR points per game (WR29)
  • 2020: 14.9 (WR20)
  • 2021: 12.6 (WR30)
  • 2022: 13.5 (WR23)
  • 2023: 12.3 (WR36)

Enter: Jayden Daniels. The 2024 NFL Draft's No. 2 overall pick is fresh off throwing for 3,812 yards and 40 TDs in 12 games during his final Heisman-winning campaign at LSU; it'd hardly be a surprise if the rookie is immediately the best QB that Scary Terry has ever had the privilege of playing with.

Reminder: DeAndre Hopkins averaged 8.6 targets per game as Kliff Kingsbury's No. 1 WR in Arizona – good for the 11th-highest mark of any WR during the 2020-21 seasons. McLaurin looks in line for a similar high-volume role inside of an offense tentatively expected to start f*cking Olamide Zaccheaus (with all due respect to Olamide Zaccheaus).

A talented, undisputed No. 1 WR receiving a QB upgrade in an offense expected to push the pace while possibly dealing with constant fantasy-friendly shootout game scripts alongside the league's reigning 32nd-ranked scoring defense, is that something you might be interested in?

Diontae Johnson catches triple-digit passes and returns WR1 production

Old man Adam Thielen went 103-1,014-4 inside this sad excuse for an offense last season, and now Johnson looks ready to fill the role as No. 1 pass-game option thanks to the reality that Johnson does one thing better than just about anyone: Separate. ESPN Analytics' “Open Score” WR rating has done a good job of quantifying this in recent years:

  • 2023: 78 (No. 11 among all qualified WRs)
  • 2022: 99 (No. 1)
  • 2021: 87 (No. 4)
  • 2020: 92 (No. 3)
  • 2019: 91 (No. 2)

The ex-Steeler has a WR8 season to his name despite playing with Big Ben's corpse, Mason Rudolph, Mitchell Trubisky, and Kenny Pickett over the years. ESPN's reigning sixth-highest-rated overall WR, Johnson combines proven talent with a higher target ceiling than most players in the league can attest to having. Not too shabby for someone regularly priced as a low-end WR3.

Kyle Pitts truly breaks out, finishes as a top-three PPR producer

It sure seems like each of Pitts' 2023 downfalls in terms of injury, bad QB performance and legit target competition at TE have all been rectified. We are talking about someone who is still just 23 years old and already has a 1,000-yard campaign under their belt. 6-foot-6, 245-pound beasts with sub-4.5 speed and the upside for triple-digit targets don't exactly fall off trees after all.

Yes, Drake London is expected to be the No. 1 pass-game option in Atlanta. Also yes, Pitts looks a lot like the No. 2, which is more than most TEs can say. Fantasy Life Projections reflect this reality:

Projected TE target leaders:

Just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in: Pitts to the moon in 2024, what could go wrong?