Brian Thomas, Drake London Fantasy Football Outlook: Week 13 Sheesh Report
- Brian Thomas almost had a HUGE day at the office
- Unrealized air yards are a helluva drug
- The Butterfingers Police: Dropped touchdowns
- I could have made that throw! (Editor's note: No you couldn't)
- The Eagles RB special: Down at the 1-yard line, and no TD
- TD! Wait: Flag.
- Sorry, Justin Jefferson fantasy managers
- Was that interception REALLY the QB's fault?
Ian Hartitz …
Week 13 has come and gone. We saw 16 NFL games that brought joy, laughs, and tears to football fans and, of course, fantasy football faithful.
Today, we’ll focus on the latter sadness and break down just how close some came to achieving fantasy football glory. Critics might call this unnecessary cruelty, while supporters could claim it helps with understanding the full context of what exactly happened last week.
Either way: Welcome to the Sheesh Report.
What follows is a breakdown of all the tilting, near-miss moments from last week that left fantasy managers and fans alike saying, "Sheesh!" I’ve watched hours of film and combed play-by-play data to help determine instances when:
- Pass catchers could have scored or picked up big yardage with a more accurate pass
- Pass catchers did receive an accurate pass that should have resulted in a score or big gain, but the ball was dropped
- Ball carriers managed to get all the way to the 1-yard line, but didn’t score
- Players scored or picked up big yardage, but the play was nullified by a penalty
- Other random shit that managed to tilt fantasy football managers of all shapes and sizes
Let's kick things off with an example of the boxscore not always matching what actually went down on the field …
Brian Thomas almost had a HUGE day at the office
The Jaguars' stud rookie receiver has been pretty much the only bright spot for Duval County this season. Last Sunday was no exception, as Thomas racked up 87 total yards and a TD on 5 touches.
Here's the thing: The performance could've, should've, would've been SO much bigger with simply *two* more accurate downfield passes.
The 2024 NFL Draft's 23rd overall pick has certainly looked the part of an alpha No. 1 WR during the bulk of his professional debut season. Here's to hoping a new-and-improved coaching staff and offensive line help lead to more consistent boxscore success in 2025 and beyond.
While no receiver had more yards left on the field than Thomas in Week 13, he wasn't the only one to miss out on quite a few fantasy points.
Unrealized air yards are a helluva drug
We can help quantify sheeshy missed downfield opportunities using "unrealized air yards," which are derived by subtracting yards after the catch from every player’s receiving yards total before taking the difference with total air yards to pinpoint exactly how much opportunity through the air (not including potential YAC) a player failed to come down with for one reason or another.
We're essentially measuring the total distance of everyone's incomplete targets. A high number indicates a player had lots of fantasy-friendly opportunities, but didn't capitalize on them for one reason or another. Cool? Cool.
ANYWAY: 15 players racked up at least 89 unrealized air yards in Week 13:
- Jaguars WR Brian Thomas (190 unrealized air yards)
- Falcons WR Drake London (135)
- Cardinals WR Marvin Harrison Jr. (122)
- Bears WR DJ Moore (118)
- Colts WR Alec Pierce (116)
- Colts TE Kylen Granson (109)
- Bears WR Rome Odunze (105)
- Jets WR Davante Adams (103)
- Titans WR Calvin Ridley (97)
- Broncos WR Courtland Sutton (97)
- Broncos WR Troy Franklin (96)
- Texans WR Tank Dell (96)
- Giants WR Darius Slayton (92)
- Cowboys WR Brandin Cooks (91)
- Jets WR Garrett Wilson (89)
Yes: I made a ridiculously arbitrary 89-yard cutoff here to purely make sure Wilson was included.
Also yes: It was a warranted decision. The man was a few better balls away from putting together an absolutely massive afternoon at the office!
Of course, sometimes these unrealized air yards were far more the fault of the WR than the QB.
The Butterfingers Police: Dropped touchdowns
While drops are a somewhat subjective stat, you know one when you see one.
Like Vikings RB Aaron Jones, who failed to haul in this b-e-a-utiful pass from Sam Darnold on what *should* have been a 13-yard TD.
However, I refuse to call the below near-miss Adam Thielen 8-yard TD a drop. The man sure seemed to establish possession and get a knee down inbounds, and yet the officials refused to change the call on the field. How? I have no idea.
Otherwise, I'm inclined to put some blame on the likes of Colts WR Adonai Mitchell (sheesh) and TE Kylen Granson (sheesh) for making the Colts' last drive much harder than it needed to be, as well as Ravens TE Mark Andrews and WR Nelson Agholor for both dropping 3rd-down dimes that would have set the offense up inside the 5-yard line.
Sheeshy stuff indeed—almost as bad as when a missed TD was more so the QB's fault.
I could have made that throw! (Editor's note: No you couldn't)
I looked at every incomplete pass that was thrown at least 10 yards downfield and/or into the end zone to get an idea of who just missed out on some big plays last week—and there were quite a few instances that stuck out:
- Browns WR Jerry Jeudy (89)
- Texans WR Tank Dell (67)
- Packers WR Jayden Reed (58)
- Packers WR Christian Watson (50)
- Chiefs WR Xavier Worthy (44, with plenty of pressure)
- Chiefs TE Noah Gray (32)
- Falcons WR Darnell Mooney (17)
- Chiefs TE Travis Kelce (17, more miscommunication than an inaccurate pass)
- Jaguars WR Parker Washington (12)
- Jets WR Garrett Wilson (9)
- Buccaneers WR Sterling Shepard (9)
- Cowboys WR KaVontae Turpin (5)
- Seahawks TE Noah Fant (1)
This category was certainly a bit subjective—our next one not so much.
The Eagles RB special: Down at the 1-yard line, and no TD
Getting all the way to the 1-yard line but failing to score a TD is objectively a sheeshy feeling—particularly when fantasy managers are forced to watch someone else vulture away the score that was SO CLOSE to belonging to them.
Here’s the full list of Week 13’s players who managed to get the football within three feet of the goal line, but not quite across the plane, and ultimately didn’t score later on the same drive:
- Dolphins RB De'Von Achane (x2, same drive)
- Lions RB David Montgomery
- Commanders RB Brian Robinson
- Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker
- Seahawks RB Zach Charbonnet
- Broncos RB Jaleel McLaughlin
- 49ers FB Kyle Juszczyk (lost fumble)
- Packers WR Dontayvion Wicks
- Broncos WR Devaughn Vele
- Broncos WR Troy Franklin
- Giants QB Drew Lock
Pretty much the only thing more sheeshy than this is when the player actually does score a TD … only for the points to come right back off the scoreboard.
TD! Wait: Flag.
TDs usually get nullified by a penalty for a good reason, but that doesn’t make the rollercoaster of adrenaline any less sheeshful for fantasy managers to deal with.
- Saints RB Alvin Kamara: Caught a short checkdown and managed to power his way into the end zone from 12 yards out … only for the refs to throw a flag for an ineligible man downfield. This one kind of pisses me off: The lineman only went a few yards downfield because he whiffed on his block before getting back behind the line of scrimmage prior to the pass being thrown. No impact on the play, and it clearly wasn't an egregious penalty. The Saints would go on to miss a field goal on the drive … and lose by seven points. Sheesh.
- Patriots RB Rhamondre Stevenson: Took a wildcat snap from the 2-yard line around right end and into the end zone … before the officials (rightfully) nullified the score due to a holding penalty that, you know, kind of created the whole opportunity in the first place.
- Patriots WR Kendrick Bourne: Caught a 6-yard TD in the middle of the fourth quarter, only for the points to come off the board due to an illegal shift by DeMario Douglas. I *think* the flag was thrown because Douglas never came set before originally going in motion, but man: This was a ticky tack call that didn't influence the play at all. Luckily, ball don't lie, and the Patriots found the end zone the next play anyway thanks to an Antonio Gibson TD run.
- Bills CB Brandon Codrington: Buffalo DST fantasy managers nearly had a 75-yard punt return TD added to their score, but unfortunately the score was nullified on an arguable phantom holding call. Am I just bitter because it was a cool play and the rule of cool should have applied? Maybe. Either way: Sheesh.
Additionally, Jets WR Davante Adams (42), Giants WR Malik Nabers (29), Seahawks RB Kenneth Walker (27), Dolphins RB Raheem Mostert (26), Bears WR DJ Moore (21), Broncos RB Jaleel McLaughlin (16), Cardinals RB James Conner (15), and Texans WR Nico Collins (15) all had explosive plays nullified for one reason or another.
Let's keep the sheeshy vibes going with more ref-aided near-miss moments!
Sorry, Justin Jefferson fantasy managers
Defensive pass interferences can be finicky and don’t always occur in instances when the targeted receiver would have FOR SURE made the catch.
That said: They are very annoying for fantasy managers to deal with when the result could’ve, should’ve, would’ve been a chunk gain—and maybe even a TD.
Overall, eight players gained at least 20 yards courtesy of DPI penalties in Week 13:
- Chiefs WR DeAndre Hopkins (46)
- Colts WR Michael Pittman (43)
- Cardinals WR Zay Jones (38)
- Bengals WR Tee Higgins (35)
- Bears WR DJ Moore (29)
- Vikings WR Justin Jefferson (28)
- Steelers WR Calvin Austin (23)
- Seahawks WR DK Metcalf (22)
Jefferson now has 154 such yards on the season. Only Commanders WR Noah Brown (158) has more. Third place? Darnell Mooney at … 80. Sheesh.
Our last category of sheesh centers around determining which QBs perhaps deserve some slack for their on-paper turnovers …
Was that interception REALLY the QB's fault?
From pressure, to a bad route, to an essential arm punt on 3rd and forever: There are quite a few reasons why any given interception might not necessarily be the QB's fault, even if that context isn't provided in the boxscore.
Good news for you, a scholar: Our Fantasy Life Sheesh Experts (just me, actually) have looked closely at each and every interception thrown in Week 13 to get an idea of which QBs probably deserve a bit of slack despite technically committing a turnover.
Specifically:
- Giants QB Drew Lock: Tough to overly blame him for attempting to check the ball down to Devin Singletary, only for Cowboys LB DeMarvion Overshown to make arguably the play of the week on his way to deflecting the pass before corralling it for the pick-six.
- Falcons QB Kirk Cousins: There's nobody for Cousins to blame for his first three interceptions other than the man in the mirror (maybe you can point a finger at Darnell Mooney for this one), but his fourth was on 4th and 12, so it's definitely more understandable that he attempted to squeeze the pass into tight coverage.
- Steelers QB Russell Wilson: Had an interception taken back to the house by Cam Taylor-Britt, but it was because George Pickens fell down as Russ released the pass. There should have been a pass interference flag here.
- Bengals QB Joe Burrow: Attempted to get the ball to Tee Higgins in the flat, only for the pass to be deflected at the line of scrimmage … and intercepted. Hell, the pass was even tipped a second time by Higgins.
- Patriots QB Drake Maye: Hit Hunter Henry in the chest, but sadly the usually reliable veteran TE dropped the pass and allowed it to be intercepted.
- Commanders QB Jayden Daniels: Attempted to get the ball to Zach Ertz over the middle, only for the TE to drop the admittingly not-perfect pass, leading directly to the INT.
I think I speak for all of us when I say for one last time: Sheesh.
Thanks for stopping by. We're on to Week 14.