Week 4 is upon us and with the season in full swing, Jonathan Fuller is here to break down fantasy football buy-low and sell-high candidates:

Regression hit hard last week with three of the four players I highlighted in the Week 3 article delivering closer to what we would expect from them based on their usage and talent. With another week of results, injuries, and utilization data to comb through, we have another crop of regression candidates to examine ahead of Week 4.

The next few weeks are critical for managed leagues as teams that got off to a slow start need to get in the win column to avoid falling too far behind in the race for playoff spots, and teams that started well are looking to make roster moves that will set them up for the rest of the season.

If your league has an active trade market this makes it an ideal time to act on these regression candidates when other managers are willing to sell low or buy high.

Buy Low Candidates for Fantasy Football Ahead of Week 4

These players' underlying data indicates positive regression on the horizon, making them strong buy-low candidates.

Najee Harris, RB | PIT

Despite Pittsburgh getting off to a 3-0 start, it's been slow going for their lead RB as Najee Harris has averaged just 3.8 YPC and is yet to score this season. That said, the schedule opens up for Harris in the coming weeks:

Steelers first three opponents (rank against opposing RBs):

  • Week 1 - Falcons (3rd fewest PPG to opposing RBs)
  • Week 2 - Broncos (16th)
  • Week 3 - Chargers (11th)

Steelers next three opponents (rank against opposing RBs):

  • Week 4 - Colts (17th)
  • Week 5 - Cowboys (32nd)
  • Week 6 - Raiders (31st)

In other words, Najee will go from playing defenses that all rank in the top half of the league for RB scoring allowed, to playing three teams that all rank in the bottom half, including the two worst in the league.

If we only look at rushing yards allowed, the picture somehow gets even better with the Colts, Cowboys, and Raiders all among the worst four defenses in terms of rushing yards allowed per game. Yes, Justin Fields could steal some of that work, but there should be plenty of rush attempts to go around over the next three games.

Another factor working in Najee's favor is that Jaylen Warren is banged up and considered week-to-week. There is a good chance Warren misses at least one of these upcoming games and even if he does play, he would likely be limited. Najee won't be a complete workhorse because Arthur Smith will insist on getting Cordarrelle Patterson involved, but Harris is a good bet to see 20+ opportunities while Warren is hampered by the injury.

I don't ever expect to see Najee be among the league's most efficient runners, but with softer matchups on the schedule, he can do better than the 3.8 yards per carry he has averaged through the first three weeks. He should also see the majority of the work around the goal line so I have high hopes that he can punch in multiple scores during this upcoming stretch of games. He is a strong RB2 play for the next couple weeks so I recommend keeping him in your lineup.

Courtland Sutton, WR | DEN

We finally saw signs of life from the Broncos offense in Week 3 as they pulled a surprising upset on the road in Tampa Bay. That didn't yield a big fantasy day for Sutton, but he remained their clear WR1 with 11 targets.

Most importantly, it was by far the best game Bo Nix has played so far. His completion percentage and QB rating both jumped in Week 3 and he didn't turn the ball over after having two INTs in each of his first two games. Nix is still waiting to throw his first TD pass, but those are coming and Sutton is the most likely player to be on the receiving end.

Sutton has been very involved this season with a 24% target share and 100% of the team's end-zone targets. We have a large enough sample size to say Sutton is a good NFL receiver, so if he continues to see strong volume like this it is only a matter of time before he starts to deliver some big fantasy performances.

It also helps that the Broncos running game has been downright awful so far. Bo Nix is their leading rusher and their top two RBs (Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin) are both averaging just 2.2 yards per carry. The Denver coaching staff is going to try some different things to get the run game going, but they have limited options so they may just be forced to pass more if the ground game continues to be ineffective.

The only concern I have is that the Broncos have a tough matchup against a good Jets defense that is allowing the fourth fewest passing yards per game through three weeks (per ESPN). Sutton can definitely overcome the tough matchup, especially if Denver is forced to throw a lot, but I won't be panicking if he has one more down game.

After this week, the Broncos next four games are against the Raiders, Chargers, Saints, and Panthers which should allow this Denver passing game to start finding its rhythm. This makes Sutton a great buy-low candidate this week, and he was drafted low enough that he should actually be attainable in trades.

Sell High Candidates for Fantasy Football Ahead of Week 4

Alvin Kamara, RB | NO

It's been something of a renaissance season for Alvin Kamara in 2024 as the Saints offense has scored the second-most points in the league and their feature RB has been a big part of the reason why. His efficiency and big-play ability are back after being mostly absent for the past couple of seasons.

Part of that is due to a much-improved scheme, but Kamara also just appears explosive to start the season. He already has a 100-yard rushing game, something he didn't do once in 2023. He has also already scored four rushing TDs after not scoring more than five in any year since the 2020 season.

While it's great to see vintage Kamara from time to time, I'm very skeptical that his hot start will last. Now that we have seen each team face three opponents, it's starting to look like Kamara got to face the NFL's two worst rush defenses in his first two games. After averaging 5.5 and 5.8 YPC against the Panthers and Cowboys respectively, that fell off to just 3.3 YPC against the Eagles. Considering the fact that Kamara has been at 4.0 YPC or worse in each of the past three seasons I'm inclined to think the first two games were the outliers rather than the most recent one.

Kamara still delivered solid fantasy production against Philly through sheer volume as he got 29 touches in that contest. He's been an absolute workhorse to start the season, ranking fourth among all RBs in Utilization Score. That's great while it lasts, but Kamara is 29 years old and fast approaching 2,000 career touches, which puts him at an elevated risk of injury.

I do expect the Saints to continue feeding Kamara a large workload each week for as long as he is healthy, but his efficiency should be below average as the season rolls on.

This is not to say I am totally out on Kamara, just that I think his production and perceived fantasy value are peaking right now. I wouldn't rush to sell him in leagues where I have him but I'm definitely open to offers where I can swap him for another good RB who hadn't had quite as strong of a start to the season.

Trading Kamara for a player like Jahmyr Gibbs would be the dream, but more realistically I would be willing to swap Kamara for someone like James Conner, especially if it could help me upgrade at another position as part of the deal.

Jauan Jennings, WR | SF

Week 3 was a perfect storm for Jauan Jennings with Deebo Samuel, Christian McCaffrey, and George Kittle all sidelined while Brandon Aiyuk is still getting up to speed following his offseason 'hold-in'. Add in a soft Rams defense and it created an environment where Jennings was able to post a career day with 175 receiving yards and three scores. 

As awesome as that game was, it's not something we should read into long-term for fantasy football. Jennings is great rotational depth for the 49ers offense, but he'll clearly be behind all of those other weapons when they return from injury. He may hold some value while Deebo and Kittle are out, but Aiyuk should continue to work into a larger role with each week of practice.

Jennings' career high is 416 receiving yards in a season and he only averages 1.5 YPRR for his career. He is a competent NFL WR but not a true difference-maker. If you added him in a redraft league or are holding him in a dynasty league I would be actively exploring the trade market for him.

You probably won't get a ton, everyone knows the 49ers other weapons will be back, but maybe the Deebo manager will be more willing to trade for him as injury insurance.

Particularly in redraft leagues, my concern is that if you don't try to sell now you'll just be dropping Jennings in a couple weeks when the rest of San Francisco's pass catchers are back in the lineup. For context, Jennings played in 13 games during the regular season last year and only topped 60% route participation three times, logging just one finish as a top-24 WR in PPR scoring. Odds are that Jennings just had the best game he will ever have, so if you can get anything of value for him I would recommend doing so.