Can Sunday Top Saturday's Divisional Round Fireworks?
In today's Fantasy Life Newsletter, presented by Mike's Hard Lemonade:
Oof. It was a tough night for anyone attempting to sack Patrick Mahomes inside of Arrowhead Stadium.
While it was written in the script stars for Kansas City to win their divisional matchup at home after a well-earned bye, it's always a tough pill to swallow when a game feels like it was decided by the dudes blowing the whistles instead of, you know …
… the dudes wearing the cleats.
It wasn't like the Texans were getting beat on either side of the ball (at first). Both Houston and Kansas City were kept out of the enemy territory for a grueling 25 minutes of gameplay before Kareem Hunt finally broke the seal at the goal line.
But none of that matters. Not when there are referees to blame!
Things you won't hear your co-workers talking about next week:
Kansas City moving on to their 7th-straight AFC championship game appearance.
Travis Kelce becoming the NFL’s all-time leader in postseason games (9) with 100-plus receiving yards.
C.J. Stroud fighting like an absolute dawg for first downs, tying his second-best rushing stat line of the year (6 car, 42 yds).
Nah. Doesn’t matter. All you'll hear about at the watercooler are those two egregious Roughing the Passer penalties that maybe (?), probably (?), definitely (!) should NOT have been called against the Texans.
C’est la vie …
At least the refs were kind enough to take the heat off of Ka'imi Fairbairn, who missed two FGs and an extra point that would've tied the game 13-13 with less than 5 minutes remaining in the 3rd ...
No one’s talking about that now. Boy, did he luck out.
What else is in today’s newsletter?
- Sunday DFS Plays: We need more points!
- “Way Too Early Rankings?” Save me from myself.
- Watercooler: Kirk Cousins made it to the playoffs?
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The NFL playoffs are here, and for some, it's game time—while for others, it's heartbreak. No matter how your season ended, Mike’s Hard Lemonade is here to remind you: Hard Days Deserve a Hard Lemonade.
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I’m Hoping For More … Can Sunday Deliver?
Name a player on the Lions.
Name a player on the Commanders.
Any player at all. Yeah … they probably scored last night.
The big brains in Vegas thought that game just miiiiight hit a point total of 51 by the end of the fourth quarter, but they were only half right—it only took half the game for those beautiful points to roll in.
And I’m not ready to let go just yet. I’m hoping for more. So I asked Chris Allen and Pete Overzet who they’re looking to on today’s DFS slate.
Chris:
WR: Amari Cooper, BUF
Admittedly, clicking on Amari Cooper is going to take a bit of faith. But I can make the case for him at such a low cost.
First, Buffalo knew they could attack the Broncos with their offensive line. They used six offensive linemen on multiple running plays, allowing them to lean into their rushing attack (-11.0% dropback over expectation rate). Subsequently, four of the Bills’ WRs were under a 55.0% route rate. While an “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” mentality might make sense, the Ravens have been one of the stingiest fronts to face. So, letting Josh Allen test the Ravens’ secondary might yield better results, which is where Cooper comes into play.
Baltimore typically plays a zone-style coverage (55.0% zone vs. 45.0% man) with Nate Wiggins and Brandon Stephens on the outside. Marlon Humphrey has been the Ravens' best CB but primarily plays on the interior. Regardless, Stephens was responsible for the 14th-most receiving yards allowed amongst all CBs over the final eight games of the season. Wiggins was in the top 20 for YAC per reception surrendered.
Khalil Shakir’s target share will deem him the safest option of the Bills’ pass catchers. However, if you want to swing for the fences, the threat of Cooper downfield might be the home run you need to have on your roster.
Pete:
RB: Derrick Henry/Justice Hill, BAL
I know no one needs me to tell them that The Big Dog is a good play, but it's worth noting that it's easier to run on the Bills than it is to throw.
And considering the Ravens will enter this road game without Zay Flowers, I'd expect a healthy dose of Henry for as long as this game remains close in hopes of salting away the clock and keeping Josh Allen off the field.
When these two teams met in Week 4, Henry rushed 24 times for 199 yards and 1 TD.
But the more interesting and actionable nugget here might be what this matchup means for Justice Hill.
Hill remains a big part of this offense–he had six rush attempts, four targets, and a receiving TD last week–and can be had for free on both DraftKings ($4,800) and Underdog (ADP: 35.7)
And similar to Daniels, Lamar Jackson could also enjoy success on the ground here. He's coming off a game with a whopping 11 designed rush attempts.
In a perfect world, you'd have at least one of these guys in the majority of your lineups.
TE: Dallas Goedert, PHI
Of all of these DvP numbers, TE is probably the least sticky. There's just so much randomness and volatility to fantasy scoring at the TE position because none of these guys see a ton of targets and their ceiling outcomes are directly tied to TDs, which are hard to predict.
That said, I like how things are shaping up for Goedert this weekend. In addition to the best matchup for TEs on the slate, he's coming off back-to-back games with six targets.
He also proved that he has that dog in him with that TD catch where he stiff-armed his way all the way into the paint.
On lineups where I don't have AJB, I'd like to prioritize Goedert as the primary beneficiary of this Rams defense.
Pete Has More Weekend DFS Picks Yet To Play
Way-Too-Early Fantasy Football Rankings For 2025: Freedman’s Top 50
Hey, it’s still Cooterdoodle here. Don’t panic or anything, but… Your 2025 fantasy drafts are already doomed. Playoff Tunnel Vision is on the rise and it affects millions of fantasy managers every year.
As playoff brackets condense into fewer and fewer matchups, we're no longer dividing our attention across 16 juicy games. We’re locked in! And when every single play feels huge… any single play can influence our opinions.
Simply put: Recency bias is a b*itch.
You’ll need some Way-Too-Early rankings to keep you grounded… Otherwise, you’re willfully drafting Kareem Hunt in the first round just because you watched him score on a game-winning drive in the Super Bowl.
Me? I want un-tainted player rankings. And I want them now!
Some say they’re “way-too-early”. I say they’re “not soon enough”.
Freedman, save me from myself!!
Freedman’s 2025 Top-50
Here are my early rankings for the all-important top 50. You can read the full article for some additional strategy notes.
- (1) Saquon Barkley, RB - PHI
- (2) Ja’Marr Chase, WR - CIN
- (3) Justin Jefferson, WR - MIN
- (4) Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR - DET
- (5) CeeDee Lamb, WR - DAL
- (6) Bijan Robinson, RB - ATL
- (7) Puka Nacua, WR - LAR
- (8) Jahmyr Gibbs, RB - DET
- (9) Nico Collins, WR - HOU
- (10) Malik Nabers, WR - NYG
- (11) Brian Thomas, WR - JAC
- (12) Josh Jacobs, RB - GB
The latest fantasy nuggets, silliness, and NFL gossip from our merry band of football nerds:
⭐️ A star is born … who needs Bradley Cooper when you have Jayden Daniels?
🥹 We can’t get enough of the Commanders win … Matthew’s riding high!
👀 Kirk Cousins found a way into the playoffs … Didn’t the Falcons get eliminated?
❓ I still don’t know what a “rizzler” is. But he sure knows how to pick a team.
😡 Hey Refs, can I get a Roughing the Coach penalty!?
⚡️ J.K. Dobbins made an emphatic return in 2024 … but where will he land in 2025?
😓 Didn’t catch the games? Here’s HOU/KC summed up.
👀 Another way-too-early top 50 … Bucky Irving is WHERE??
