Can You Trust J.K. Dobbins in 2024?: Fantasy Football Roundtable with Kendall
Welcome to the Roundtable, folks! This season I will try to get many fantasy football analysts (and friends) to give us their best advice, overreactions and maybe even include some life lessons along the way. This is meant to be insightful, but also fun—so please be sure to enjoy and also give everyone a follow if you have the chance!
Today's Roundtable contributors include a familiar Fantasy Life face Sam Wallace and NFL Fantasy en Espanol's fantasy football analyst Mauricio Gutierrez.
What should our expectations be with J.K. Dobbins?
Mauricio: My opinion might be biased here, given that I was once a tour guide for Dobbins a few years ago in Guadalajara, Mexico (it was a great experience, by the way). Being chosen as the RB43, we are definitely not overhyping him.
I have no doubt that he's the most talented running back on the Chargers' roster right now. However, one must be cautious. Almost no RB in the last 12 years who has suffered an Achilles injury has been able to return to a relevant level of fantasy production.
Sam: It's been an interesting offseason for J.K. Dobbins, who is recovering from a torn Achilles. Now with the Chargers, he'll be battling Gus Edwards for the lead role. Talent has never been the issue with Dobbins, it's been his lack of availability. He's appeared in just 24 games in his four-year career and only nine since the end of 2020.
Dobbins does have the utmost confidence in himself and recently talked about how this year will be special. Still, it's tough to see past his injury history. Our composite rankings have Edwards (RB37) well ahead of Dobbins (RB53) heading into the season. I don't mind taking a swing on Dobbins in best ball formats, but I'm tempering my expectations.
Jun 13, 2024; Costa Mesa, CA, USA; Los Angeles Chargers running back J.K. Dobbins (27) during minicamp at the Hoag Performance Center. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports
Kendall: I mean someone has to come out on top of this Chargers running back room…right??? We know that new head coach Jim Harbaugh and new offensive coordinator Greg Roman are going to run the crap out of the ball, with Gus Edwards looking like the RB1 for the season. It's understandable if you're more excited to draft Edwards over J.K. Dobbins, especially because of the history we have seen of running backs coming off an Achilles tear.
I think our expectations are exactly where they should be and that's why Dobbins is priced as a late-round pick on Underdog with an ADP of 165. I've been drafting some Dobbins, Edwards, and rookie Kimani Vidal shares. We never want injuries, but if something happened to Edwards, Dobbins would step into an even larger workload. Here's hoping he stays healthy!
What do you expect from Tua this year?
Mauricio: Our biggest concern with Tua Tagovailoa last year was that he would stay healthy, and that's exactly what happened. He finished as the NFL's leader in passing yards—but he was inconsistent. From Weeks 1-8, he averaged 19.2 FP/G, while from Weeks 9-18 he averaged just 13 FP/G. He was a top 12 QB in 44% of weeks played.
But I still have hope that he can be a consistent top-12 QB. It's not a bad bet to have a QB tied to the offensive mind of Mike McDaniel and one of the best receiving weapons in the league. He proved that he can be an accurate, effective QB (QB2 in yards per attempt, QB7 in completion percentage, and QB1 in accuracy rating). ¡Vamos Tua!
Sam: Honestly, I'm expecting Tua Tagovailoa to run it back and have a similar season as last year. In 2023, among QBs who played at least 10 games, he finished as the QB1 in passing yards per game and QB2 in adjusted completion percentage. With his new mega-contract in tow, there's no reason Tua can't be a viable fantasy option with Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and De'Von Achane as his primary weapons.
Our Fantasy Life rankers have Tua as their consensus QB15. If you forgo the elite options, Tua could be a great late-round option in redraft leagues this year.
Kendall: First of all, can I just say congratulations to Tagovailoa for securing the BAG over the weekend?! For the 2024 season, I am hoping that we see him be more consistent towards the back half of the season. Ian Hartitz has outlined what Tua has looked like in the colder months as the season has gone on, and it's not exactly pretty (they also have a tough schedule towards the end of the season). However, I'm optimistic about Tua because of the supporting cast and the coaching staff he has around him.
He's going as the QB15 on both Underdog and ESPN drafts, and I think that's a solid place for him. I don't necessarily want to be walking out of 1QB drafts with only Tua, but in superflex and best ball, I am hoping for a high-end QB2 finish this season.
What do we think of this Broncos backfield?
Mauricio: This backfield is intriguing. Can we say that the rumor of Javonte Williams being cut was just that…a rumor? Why would a team willing to cut a player give him constant reps with the first team? In 2023 his metrics were “no bueno,” but we must recognize that he was just a year removed from suffering an ACL injury.
The competition is open, and we will have to keep our eyes on what happens at training camp and in preseason.
Jaleel McLaughlin gives me 2023 Jaylen Warren vibes. You want to chase the mega-efficient RB profile (top 10 in yards per touch, yards per carry, yards created, juke rate, and percentage of carries of more than 15 yards) with a possible increase in opportunities.
Jan 7, 2024; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Denver Broncos running back Javonte Williams (33) carries against the Las Vegas Raiders during the first quarter at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports
Sam: It's been a whirlwind of an offseason for the Broncos backfield. In a manner of days, we went from Williams fighting for a roster spot with Samaje Perine to Williams looking like the best of all the RBs at training camp.
The easy answer is: I want exposure to everyone across my best ball drafts, including Jaleel McLaughlin and rookie Audric Estime. However, at the end of the day, give me all the Williams at cost. He's projected to have 100+ more rushing attempts and almost 375 more rushing yards than McLaughlin. At the end of the day, talent should win out.
Kendall: The offseason and training camp reports remind me of that Michael Scott scene in The Office *snip snap* *snip snap*. Javonte Williams looks like he will indeed NOT be cut, but be the lead RB based on Fantasy Life projections. Dwain McFarland has him projected for 704 rushing yards, 219 receiving yards, and five total touchdowns.
With that being said, none of these Broncos running backs are very expensive. Williams, McLaughlin, and Estime are priced outside of the top 100 fantasy picks in drafts right now, and as we start to get more clarity on what this backfield will look like during the season, their prices will start to rise.
I am buying low and getting exposure to all three backs (with a little bit more of Williams) because of how cheap they are, and I am hoping we get a clearer picture as the weeks go on.
What is your favorite meal/thing to cook?
Mauricio: ¡Carne asada for everyone! I really enjoy turning on the grill to let the chiles burn and stuffing them with cheese, making quesadillas, and grilling various cuts of meat. Yes, obviously salsas and guacamole can't be missing.
Having a gathering around the grill is perfect. You have your friends or family around drinking, chatting, and enjoying while you cook for them. But please, as much as I would like, don’t invite me to a carne asada on an NFL Sunday. I have to work, commentate on NFL games, take notes, and prepare content for the week. A little sacrifice that comes with having one of the best jobs in the world.
Sam: Breakfast food has always been my jam. Earlier this summer, I caught some flak in our Fantasy Life group chat for "supposedly" putting ranch on my eggs. Look, I may be from Wisconsin and I might put ranch on a lot of things, but I can neither confirm nor deny the presence of ranch on my eggs. In all seriousness, eggs, pancakes, french toast, and all the sides you want in a good breakfast, I got you. I think what I love most is, while you would never eat food that is traditionally eaten for supper in the morning, breakfast food is good anytime of day.
Kendall: To be honest, my favorite thing to cook right now is scallops. FAIR WARNING: I live in California, so getting that fresh seafood definitely helps, but this is one of the easier meals I cook every week. Also, it took me a while to overcome my fear of the meat and seafood counter at my local grocery store, but now look where it's gotten me! I get about five scallops and heat up a medium pan with oil.
You salt and pepper both sides of the scallops and cook them for 2-3 minutes on both sides, adding in about two tabs of butter when you flip them over. Baste them in the butter and serve immediately! I also like to cook risotto and asparagus to serve with them. I'm not kidding, it's that easy. Enjoy!