CFB Playoff Bracket Breakdown and Predictions: Why Texas Can Win It All — and More
From the moment the College Football Playoff was announced the football world clamored for it to be expanded beyond four teams. Fans finally get their wish as it was expanded to a 12-team playoff.
And of course there are still complaints.
In true college football fashion, the Big Ten is the only Power Four conference to produce an undeniable top team: Oregon. The remaining three conferences have a few teams muddled together like the bottom of a mojito — each team has their own distinct flavors but the group as a whole makes the conference more palatable. So what we end up with is a bunch of questions after the Sunday afternoon bracket reveal. Here are five burning questions.
1. How does Boise State have a bye?
This is the greed of the P4 teams coming back to haunt them. The rule states that the four highest ranked conference champions get a bye. In normal seasons that would usually include the ACC but when Miami — who was ranked sixth — lost to Syracuse and tumbled out of the championship game, it left two teams in the ACC Title game ranked 8th and 17th. And when the 17th-ranked team beat the eighth, it opened the door for Boise State, who was ranked 10th and Mountain West Conference champions.
It makes no sense overall because the bye should have gone to the top four teams. Instead you have the third and fourth ranked teams playing in the first round and a team ranked ninth getting a pass into the second round.
2. Why does #1 not have an easier path to the title?
Oregon has been the best team in college football all season. They have passed every test impressively — but when the brackets were revealed, it seemed like the committee was not sold on the Ducks. When you dissect the bracket, it's actually Georgia who has the most favorable path to the championship. Take the numbers away from each team — Georgia plays the winner of Indiana vs. Notre Dame while Oregon has a rematch with Ohio State — or a date with a high-powered Tennessee squad.
If they are both able to advance, Georgia will face either Penn State, SMU, or Boise State. The Ducks have Texas, Clemson, or Arizona State. There is only one team on the Georgia side that would have a legit chance of winning the title… and that's Penn State. Meanwhile, the Oregon side has Texas (the Longhors were in the CFP last season) Ohio State and Clemson (who have extensive CFP experience), and Tennessee who has the 11th-ranked strength of schedule in the country, so they are battle tested.
3. Should strength of schedule matter?
Is the sun hot? Is water wet? Strength of schedule should definitely matter. Unless we want the top teams to start scheduling a bunch of easy wins out of conference play, then it better matter. It seems as if it didn't matter to the selection committee this year, though. Alabama played the second toughest schedule in the country, Miami played the 28th toughest, but SMU’s schedule ranked 41st, one better than Indiana’s. Yes Bama has three losses, but they are all to bowl-eligible opponents and if the other teams don't have a conference championship as a trump card then yeah, Bama should have probably made it in. Is the playoff a sham without them? No.
But it is less interesting.
4. What's the most intriguing game of the first round?
The NCAA basketball tournament has a history of intrigue between the No. 7 and No. 10 seed, with the 10 seed pulling the upset almost four out of 10 times (38.82%). The CFP No. 10 seed is Indiana and they will travel to No. 7 Notre Dame. Both teams are trying to prove they belong in the playoff, and they're playing in Indiana so the crowd will be turned all the way up. Can the upstart “Fighting Cignettis” take the shine off the golden domers?
Notre Dame opens as a -7.5 point favorite and the total is set at 51.5 points. This matchup takes away what many thought would be their home field advantage thanks to weather — Indiana will not be fazed. Both teams have explosive elements that they will use to exploit the opposing defense. This could be a battle for Indiana — and the start of a brand new rivalry.
5. Who wins it all?
The easy answer is Oregon, but they do not have an easy trek. Also, as the favorite, they are only +330, bringing back a little over 3X your investment. That is tough, even with a first round bye. Georgia could be without their quarterback so it is a surprise that their odds are still so high at +350. Their defense is good enough that it could drag the offense to the championship especially on the light side of the bracket. Penn State would be a great pick if we had any proof that James Franklin had what it takes to lead his team to a championship — but every time they get into a must win game, they lose.
Texas has a great chance to win it all. They probably have the deepest team in the country — two quarterbacks who have playing experience, they have three running backs who average five yards per carry, and a slew of receiving options. They can absorb a loss at almost every position, and their backups have legit experience in big games. At +360 they offer slightly better value than Oregon and Georgia and although they will not have a bye week, they will not have to worry about game rust.
Texas will also be supported by the best defense in the playoff. They are ranked third in total defense and second in scoring defense. They are ranked 15th against the run and first in the nation against the pass. The only team to beat them this season is Georgia and they would not face them until the championship game. It seems they are getting closer and closer to unlocking the key to defeating the Bulldogs. In their first game they lost by 15 points, the second game was a three-point loss in overtime. The third time will be the charm.
Horns up in the Mercedes-Benz Stadium confetti!